Why the collapse of the russian army will come suddenly and without any forewarning:

[DetlefK]

TL;DR
Because that's how nationalistic propaganda in eastern-european dictatorships works.



It's important to understand that Russia is scraping the barrel for war-material.

* Shortly after the war began, Russia ordered a military supply-ship from a port in the Pacific Ocean to sail to Crimea: All the way from the pacific coast of Russia, through the Indian Ocean, through the Suez-Canal, through the Dardanelles and into the Black Sea.
Why the hell would Russia go to these lengths? And why already at the beginning of the war?

* Russia is using Soviet-era ship-killer missiles against targets on land.
Why would Russia do that? Russia has HUGE supplies of soviet-era tanks, artillery and artillery-rounds.

* We hear again and again stories from russian soldiers on social media how they are sent to war without the necessary equipment. From toilet-paper to spades for diffing trenches to winter-coats... So many of the little things are missing. A russian soldier complained that a Chechen stole his service-sidearm. Again and again russian, luhanskian and donetskian soldiers are sent into the meatgrinder. The russian strategy is literally to drown Ukraine in dead bodies.
Why would Russia do that? If Russia has enough firepower to defeat Ukraine, then why needlessly sacrifize so many soldiers?





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980s_austerity_policy_in_Romania#Food_shortages
When the romanian economy collapsed in the 1980s, the food-shortages happened LITERALLY from one day to the next. One day there was food on the shelves, the next day the food was gone off the shelves and hidden in back-rooms and storehouses, because the government had ordered rationing.
One day you could buy food, the next day you couldn't. The announcement of the new policy came after-the-fact.




Right now, Russia is a mess full of nationalistic jingoism. Putin wants to conquer Ukraine and the russian politicians, russian media and russian conspiracy-theorists have made up a dozen justifications after-the-fact why Russia NEEDS to invade Ukraine.
Russia is FULL OF PRO-WAR PROPAGANDA that drowns out everything else. Every single bad news is cast aside and ignored.

If Russia runs into problems in the Ukraine-war, the russian news-media will NOT talk about it, because they have gone full Fox News. The russian news-media enjoys stirring the russian people into a frenzy of hatred.





And that's why the end of this war will not be drawn out and slow. It will be very, very suddenly. One day Russia will be furiously bombing ukrainian villages, all cocky and boastful about their impending victory, and the next day Russia will offer peace.

[PortTack]

1. I agree totally! UKR minister of defense says he thinks most of the fighting will be over by yrs end

As heavier weapons arrive and UKR troops are trained to use them, the russians are going to suffer even heavier casualties. The UKR forces stayed in SVRdonestk not to necessarily gain territory but to inflict heavy casualties and damage military hardware, and it worked.

British intel says russian conscripts are receiving 3-6 days of training b4 being thrown on the front lines. Putin doesn’t care…but he will when there are none left to “train.”

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

2. Sounds familiar

Shortly after the war began, Russia ordered a military supply-ship from a port in the Pacific Ocean to sail to Crimea: All the way from the pacific coast of Russia, through the Indian Ocean, through the Suez-Canal, through the Dardanelles and into the Black Sea.
Why the hell would Russia go to these lengths? And why already at the beginning of the war?

1905 in the Russo Japanese war Russia deployed the Baltic fleet to Japan which was wiped out in the Battle of Tsushima

[dixiegrrrrl]

3. The long voyage of the ship can be explained

Russia has no ports. The whole thing with Russia grabbing the Crimea is b/c access to the Black Sea. Same for Georgia.
Otherwise Russia is pretty much landlocked. Which explains that little bit of Russian land in Luthiania. It's for the port access.
Hopefully Ukraine can kick the Russians out of the Black Sea area altogether.

Reading a good book about the Geography of War. Which also points to why strife has long been for control of oil/ship transport in the East.