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Saudi Arabia vs. the UAE - Good Times Bad Times (The 20s Report)
Key Points
- Saudi-UAE rivalry intensified in December 2025 when UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council separatists seized 80% of Yemen's oil reserves, prompting a Saudi counter-offensive that crushed the Emirati project by January 2026
- The alliance fractured as Iran weakened - with Tehran's "axis of resistance" degraded after Assad's fall and Hezbollah's decline, the common enemy that united Riyadh and Abu Dhabi disappeared
- Sudan has become a proxy battleground where Saudi Arabia backs General Burhan's army while the UAE supports the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary, with the conflict claiming up to 400,000 lives
- MBS is building an alternative security architecture centered on a mutual defense treaty with Pakistan (potentially including nuclear umbrella provisions) and deepening ties with Turkey, creating an "Islamic NATO" counterweight
- Two competing regional blocs are emerging: UAE aligns with Israel, Somaliland, and non-state actors, while Saudi Arabia partners with recognized governments in Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Somalia
- Saudi Arabia neutralized Iran through diplomacy via the 2023 China-brokered normalization agreement, allowing MBS to focus on competing with the UAE rather than Tehran