Arab Spring heading for Tashkent

[unhappycamper]

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/10/13/arab-spring-heading-for-tashkent/

Arab Spring heading for Tashkent

Uzbekistan is the key country in Central Asia — although Kazakhs intensely dislike hearing this — and what happens in that country will be of immense consequence to regional security and stability of the vast space between the Caspian and the western borders of China — perhaps, even including Xinjiang. Yet, there is little awareness among Indian scholars and think tankers that Uzbekistan is veritably a volcano waiting to erupt. True, it is a highly secretive country which yields its secrets very grudgingly to outsiders.

Yet, in bits and pieces, one could hear through the past year or so the rumblings of something very sinister going on in Uzbekistan. Three weeks ago, it was officially stated in Tashkent that the dictator-president Islam Karimov’s daughter Gulnara (who used to be widely discussed in the West as a potential successor to her father some day) has been put under house arrest.

Now, when a dictator cannot save his daughter from incarceration and persecution, it is clear that he no longer controls the levers of power. Indeed, a grim succession struggle has begun in Tashkent. There are alarming reports that the Uzbek volcano might erupt any day.

Indeed, the Karimov era seems to be ending and a vicious power struggle has begun, involving security agencies and the famous “clans” (whose alignments and realignments constitute the alchemy of politics in all Central Asian societies.)

[DetlefK]

1. The article seems a bit overblown.

If Karimov ordered his daughter's arrest (may she was about to topple him? or had an inappropriate lover?) then the whole argument falls apart.