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Israeli leaders face great danger: a peace settlement
Israeli politicians face a clear and present danger. It is not Iran’s nuclear program. Nor is it the risk that Egypt’s instability or the civil war in Syria will spill over into an Arab-Israeli conflagration. Rather, it is U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s forthcoming peace plan.
This plan will not contain major surprises. It will probably be a juxtaposition of previous plans, such as the Clinton parameters or the Bush road map. Israelis know what the plan contains and what will be required of Israel if it accepts the plan.
The threat contained in the plan is threefold. First, this is a committed secretary of state serving under a second-term president focused on his legacy. This administration, perceived to be unsupportive of Israel, is not burdened by electoral considerations. For Israeli politicians, however, electoral considerations are a permanent concern. The shakiness of the governing coalition, which binds extreme right-wing parties with more moderate centrist parties, poses a constant threat to the survival of the Israeli government.
Second, Kerry’s plan comes amid growing international criticism of Israel. Israel has faced criticism in the past. What is different today is that it is accompanied by an emerging trend of divestments and sanctions. This is a new and frightening prospect because it threatens Israeli economic and academic institutions and high-tech companies.
If this trend continues, it might pull Israel’s middle class out of its apathy. Israel has weathered the global recession of recent years largely due to its financial and high-tech sectors. While the rising cost of living and economic inequality have resulted in social protests, macroeconomic indicators have been extremely positive. The threat of a recession due to boycotts and divestments is a huge concern.
The professional middle class can be a decisive electoral force. If it supports a certain political party, it could well tip the balance in an election. The newly formed Yesh Atid party won second place in the last election, largely on a domestic economic platform. It did not have a clear foreign and security policy agenda. Its decision to join a Likud-led coalition gave life to the current government. However, if it leaves, Israel will likely go to an early election – and there is a good chance that, if recession hits, the party will emerge as the big winner.
Third, Israeli politicians who have opposed territorial concessions in the past have always had a Palestinian ally. Their most convincing claim has been Palestinian refusal to sign offers presented to them. The argument that “there is no Palestinian partner for peace” has been a common tool in Israel’s public-relations toolbox. Palestinian violence against Israelis has given this claim a convincing ring even while Israel, through its aggressive settlement policy and human-rights violations, has reduced the chance of Palestinian accommodation.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2014/Mar-12/249960-israeli-leaders-face-great-danger-a-peace-settlement.ashx
This plan will not contain major surprises. It will probably be a juxtaposition of previous plans, such as the Clinton parameters or the Bush road map. Israelis know what the plan contains and what will be required of Israel if it accepts the plan.
The threat contained in the plan is threefold. First, this is a committed secretary of state serving under a second-term president focused on his legacy. This administration, perceived to be unsupportive of Israel, is not burdened by electoral considerations. For Israeli politicians, however, electoral considerations are a permanent concern. The shakiness of the governing coalition, which binds extreme right-wing parties with more moderate centrist parties, poses a constant threat to the survival of the Israeli government.
Second, Kerry’s plan comes amid growing international criticism of Israel. Israel has faced criticism in the past. What is different today is that it is accompanied by an emerging trend of divestments and sanctions. This is a new and frightening prospect because it threatens Israeli economic and academic institutions and high-tech companies.
If this trend continues, it might pull Israel’s middle class out of its apathy. Israel has weathered the global recession of recent years largely due to its financial and high-tech sectors. While the rising cost of living and economic inequality have resulted in social protests, macroeconomic indicators have been extremely positive. The threat of a recession due to boycotts and divestments is a huge concern.
The professional middle class can be a decisive electoral force. If it supports a certain political party, it could well tip the balance in an election. The newly formed Yesh Atid party won second place in the last election, largely on a domestic economic platform. It did not have a clear foreign and security policy agenda. Its decision to join a Likud-led coalition gave life to the current government. However, if it leaves, Israel will likely go to an early election – and there is a good chance that, if recession hits, the party will emerge as the big winner.
Third, Israeli politicians who have opposed territorial concessions in the past have always had a Palestinian ally. Their most convincing claim has been Palestinian refusal to sign offers presented to them. The argument that “there is no Palestinian partner for peace” has been a common tool in Israel’s public-relations toolbox. Palestinian violence against Israelis has given this claim a convincing ring even while Israel, through its aggressive settlement policy and human-rights violations, has reduced the chance of Palestinian accommodation.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2014/Mar-12/249960-israeli-leaders-face-great-danger-a-peace-settlement.ashx