Israel/Palestine
Related: About this forumIsrael and Hamas' lose-lose situation
Why is the Hamas leadership determined to engage in a war that it has as much chance of winning as a fly has against an elephant? To really understand what its leaders are thinking, it helps to know the Arabic term "mumanaa," which freely translates as a "no win-no win situation." For years, the strategy of Hamas (and of Hezbollah, for that matter) hasnt been based on achieving a Palestinian victory. Rather, it is focused on preventing Israel from winning.For this mumanaa to be complete, Hamas takes care to maintain a residual military capacity, which will allow it to have the last word, and prevent Israel from gaining a decisive victory. In other words, the movements leaders will do everything within their power to ensure that Gaza fires off the last rockets before a cease-fire is declared. If Israel decides to invade Gaza, Hamas will force it to engage in grueling skirmishes in densely populated areas, in what can best be defined as a mini war of attrition. After all, Hamas is fully aware that a single photo of an Israeli soldiers funeral is worth more than a thousand words about victory.
The result is an asymmetrical struggle between an organization that has nothing to lose and a desperate population, versus a country without enough room on the page to list all of its losses. Below is just a partial tally of Israels losses in this conflict:
Every rocket that lands in Gush Dan (metropolitan Tel Aviv) underscores the impotence of Israels military might in dealing with this situation. Every photo of Jews running for their lives to shelters highlights inadequacies in the strength of the fourth-most powerful army in the world. Every time a blue-and-white (colors of the Israeli flag) missile cuts short the life of a Palestinian child, dozens if not hundreds of newly born cousins in the occupied territories will be given the name of that child. They will imbibe a desire to avenge him with their mothers milk. Every day that this happens, the Palestinian peace camp loses another member.
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/07/protective-edge-hamas-iron-dome-hamas.html#ixzz37PgERNS6
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)Asymmetric warfare requires the weaker side to use any tactics that will prevent a decisive victory for the much stronger opponent. Hamas knows their rockets are ineffectual, as do the Israelis. But, Hamas also knows Israel will overreact to the provocation, creating martyrs and many new recruits as well as further weakening Israel's standing in the rest of the world. For Hamas, it is the best possible strategy given their goals.
The Israelis, like clockwork, take the bait every time. For a nation with a lot of intelligent people, they have the most counterproductive, blunt force strategy possible.
ellenrr
(3,864 posts)10,000 (whatever the # is) of people flee their homes in order to provide them a recruitment tool?
shira
(30,109 posts)....Hamas will fcuk their people over in the biggest ways imaginable to get a propaganda "win" over Israel.
The remaining 30-50,000 original Palestinian refugees attest to this. Their ongoing misery (going on 70 years) in camps is essential for future "victory" over the Jews.
It's been like this.
Glad you just woke up!
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)know who is responsible for the kidnapping and deaths of the Israeli teens since Bibi
has not revealed the evidence he claims to have. Hamas' history of taking responsibility
has been more consistent than not and they deny they were involved.Hamas, as the OP
points out, will act off the hand Israel offers them.
If the unity government moved along as planned, Hamas' only chance at the time to further its
political influence would have been to wait for the fall out of the peace deal Abbas was going to
accept through Kerry. That initiative involved enormous concessions from the Palestinians which
would in effect, leave them with a bantustan..not a viable state. Once understood by the Palestinians,
Hamas could then gather support from those who would feel Abbas sold them out..what percentage
of Palestinians, hard to measure. But that would have been about their only advantage and ability
to remain relevant.
Here is a little more analysis of the current political crisis:
Q: Whats the reality of the current conflict? What is Israels goal in this high casualty war?
FINKELSTEIN:
The attack against Hamas started because Hamas joined the Palestinian Unity government. Hamas had accepted the conditions stipulated by the US and EU. Prime Minister Netanyahu exploited the abduction and killing of three Israeli youths as a pretextno one knows who was behind the abduction and killingto attack Hamas and break up the Unity government, so as to give Israel a new excuse not to pursue peace negotiations. At first Israel said it couldnt negotiate with the PA because the PA didnt represent all the Palestinian people. But if the Unity government succeeded, then this excuse would have been removed. An Israeli political science professor once termed this sort of panicky Israeli reaction the fear of a Palestinian peace offensive, because it removes Israels excuse for not negotiating.
That was phase one, we are now entering phase two. The Israel government knows that if it launches a ground invasion, it will face big problems, because the IDF will suffer a large number of casualties. During the 2008-9 Israeli massacre in Gaza, it destroyed everything in sight in order to avoid combatant casualties. But if Israel destroys everything in sight again the international community
[interrupted by question]
Q: Mr Finkelstein you are pointing out that Israelis dont want peace when in fact it is these Israelis who see themselves as being targets of Hamas rockets, which people, which country in the world doesnt want peace and doesnt want to live in peace and quiet?
FINKELSTEIN:
Israel wants peace. Everyone country wants peace. Every aggressor State also wants peace. The question is what kind of peace? Peace under what conditions? Israel considers itself as having a right to defend itself. The government of Britain and the BBC support this right of self-defence in the face of the primitive attacks by Hamas. But Israel in practice is using this right of self-defense to perpetuate its occupation of Palestine, and to kill Palestinians who oppose this occupation. Israel demands the right to occupy Palestinian land and the right to kill Palestinians who oppose this occupation. And the international community gives Palestinians two rights, the right to die slowly under an inhuman blockade, or the right to die quickly under bombing [interrupted by question, translator stops]
Q: Mr. Finkelstein before this interview, we had an interview with a Hamas spokesperson that said we dont recognize Israel, many Israeli officials say how can we live beside a group that is armed, and has a territory under its control and doesnt recognize our right to live.
FINKELSTEIN:
I thinking youre having a problem understanding my words, but I think my English is pretty clear. Surely we can both agree that a Unity government was in the process of being formed. Hamas accepted to join this Unity government. Hamas accepted the conditions of this Unity government, conditions that were stipulated by the US and the EU. So whats the problem with negotiating with them? The problem is Israel doesnt want to negotiate. This is why Netanyahu started the attacks in the West Bank after the abduction of the three Israeli youths. They arrested 750 Palestinians, killed 11 civilians, including 4 children, in response to that kidnapping. All this was to evoke a reaction from Hamas, so that Israel could avoid negotiations. Now I have a question for you. If the Unity government went ahead, and the US and EU accepted to negotiate with a Unity government, what could prevent an agreement? You say it is Hamas. But this basically turns you into an apologist for Israel, why are you being an apologist for Israel?
[interrupted by question]
Q: Mr Finkelstein I brought up the Israeli point of view, we are not in a position to take sides, to support or denounce either side, were an impartial source. You have written books about the conflict between Israel and Palestine and have worked and researched in this field. This current situation what effect could it have on Israel (please answer briefly, thank you)?
FINKELSTEIN:
Israel faces a problem. If it launches a ground invasion, it has to destroy everything in sight, because Israeli society cant tolerate casualties on its side. They like high-tech massacres, they dont want an actual war and to see their own casualties. But they cant do this and kill everything in sight, because after the 2008 conflictwhen 1400 Palestinians were killed, up to 1200 of whom were civilians, while on the Israeli side 13 were killed, and only 3 were civiliansthe international community will not tolerate such a bloodbath on the part of Israel. Therefore Israel faces this dilemma: It cant stop the Hamas rocket attacks without a ground invasion, but it cant launch a ground invasion without massive Palestinian death and destruction which the international community wont allow.
Here I want to repeat what Amnesty International said: First, there should be a comprehensive arms embargo against Israel and Palestine, which I am completely in favor of; Second, there should be an international investigation into war crimes that took place; and Thirdmy suggestion, not Amnestysthere should be international sanctions against Israel until Israel accepts to put an end to this conflict, once and for all, and under the terms of international law. This is simple and easily achievable. Israel does not have the right to go into Gaza every few years andto use their hideous expressionmow the lawn. The days of Israels mowing the lawn in Gaza must end. And Israeli should be under sanctions until they end the conflict as dictated by international law.
Q: Norman Finkelstein, American political scientist and author, I thank you for your presence on this show.
http://normanfinkelstein.com/2014/translation-of-censored-bbc-interview/