Will Israel wage a war against Hezbollah before its elections in 2016?

[shaayecanaan]

The Israeli Knesset is expected to hold elections in two years, and it is believed that a war against Hezbollah will occur prior to that event. This was claimed by a senior Israeli minister, and member of the Israeli Political-Security Cabinet, during comments in regards to recent developments on the northern border and Israel's military capabilities against Hezbollah.

Moreover, Maariv attributed what it called bold reasons presented by the party and its secretary-general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in facing Israel, to the reality of the operational experience amassed by Hezbollah operatives during their fight in Syria, in which the party is fighting as an organized army, has developed a sophisticated and modern intelligence gathering system, is utilizing unmanned drones, among other developments “which has led to the enhancement of Hezbollah's self-confidence and abilities.”

The Israeli newspaper advised not to think about the issue because the outcome will be bad. Rather, it stated that “Israel's performance against Hamas (during the last war in Gaza) has not added anything to the Israeli deterrence in this crazy region we live in,” noting that “Nasrallah and Iranian officials are now aware that Israel was unable to settle the battle against a small and isolated organization like Hamas, and therefore must ask themselves: Is there a reason to be scared? … And this question is appropriate, but we (Israelis) have to ask this not of them, because, at this state, we must be afraid” about what will happen.

http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/will-israel-wage-war-against-hezbollah-its-elections-2016

[Jefferson23]

1. Commentary, Oct 8th.

Does a strengthened Hezbollah make Israel safer?

The catastrophic outcomes of another Israeli-Hezbollah conflict for both sides is likely deterring escalation into all-out war.

By Aaron Magid

Since the Gaza war ended, Israeli media quickly shifted its focus to the next conflict – with Hezbollah. Channel 2 aired an extensive interview with a senior Israeli military officer under the headline “The 3rd Lebanon War” detailing the immense costs such a clash would incur, as if another conflict with Hezbollah is a pre-determined fact. Referring to the threat, longtime Israeli journalist Ben Caspit warned, “not since the War of Independence has the sovereignty of the Jewish State been in such peril.”

Ironically though, Hezbollah’s increased strength significantly reduces the chances of another war between the two parties. Even during the clandestine battle between Israel and Hezbollah on Syrian territory which has led to losses on both sides, each leader realizes the outcome of a full-scale war would be unbearably catastrophic. This has caused both sides to scale back their responses and created a formidable mutual deterrence between the adversaries.

In multiple briefings with local press following the Gaza war, senior military officials have warned about Hezbollah’s strength. Hezbollah possesses approximately 100,000 rockets, 10-times the number in Hamas’s arsenal. In contrast to previous battles fought in Lebanon, the Israeli military believes that Hezbollah is now prepared t o send well-trained fighters across the border to conquer an Israeli town. The far more intense conflict could even last up-to four months, cautioned the senior Israeli officer. Any Israeli government understands that these nightmare scenarios must be avoided.

Daniel Sobelman, Research Fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, notes that Hezbollah’s ability to provoke such fear is especially impressive given that Hezbollah is a non-state actor and much weaker militarily than Israel. Nonetheless, in a “calculated way,” Nasrallah has managed to establish a “fierce military deterrence vis-à-vis Israel,” Sobelman explains.

http://972mag.com/does-a-strengthened-hezbollah-make-israel-safer/97455/

[shaayecanaan]

3. bugger me sideways, I thought you meant Commentary Magazine

I thought that they might have had an epiphany.

[Jefferson23]

4. Nope, not yet anyway: The Consequences of a “Chickensh*t” Policy

lol@the gang, could they be any more obvious?



No doubt the gang in the Obama administration have been congratulating themselves for planting some juicy insults aimed at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jeffrey Goldberg’s latest column in The Atlantic. But now that the wiseacres in the West Wing and/or the State Department have done their dirty work the question remains what will be the consequences of the decision to widen as well as to embitter the breach between the two countries. While most of those writing on this subject, including Goldberg, have emphasized the real possibility that the U.S. will sandbag Israel at the United Nations and otherwise undermine the Jewish state’s diplomatic position in the last years of Obama’s term in office, that won’t be the only blowback from the administration’s “chickenshit” diplomacy. Rather than harm Netanyahu, this ploy, like previous attacks on the prime minister, will strengthen him while making mischief for the president’s party in both this year’s midterms and in 2016.

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2014/10/29/the-consequences-of-a-chickenshit-policy/

[bemildred]

2. I figured this was a fund-raising effort, I understand the budget is "difficult" and

the costs of OPE have the military anxious for more money and arms. Plus they just signed for some more F-35s.

It is hard for me to see either Israel of Hezbollah wanting to start a fight in the present circumstances, while ISIS remains a threat, but reason will only take you so far.