we're not winning on ammendment 1 in NC

[xchrom]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/north-carolinians-support-but-dont-understand-marriage-amendment.html



PPP's newest look at the marriage amendment in North Carolina finds it passing by a wide margin, but also that voters don't really understand what the ban does and that once they do things get a lot closer.

58% of voters in the state say that they'll vote yes on Amendment 1, while 38% are opposed to it. Republicans pretty universally support it, 76/20. Democrats are closely divided with 48% in support and 47% opposed. White Democrats are opposed to the proposed ban, but African Americans support it 61/30.

The group most opposed is actually independents, who say they'll vote against it 55/42. That's an important commentary on unaffiliated voters beyond this issue- they lean Republican in North Carolina right now because they're unhappy with the economy, but they're not hardcore social conservatives. The GOP needs to be careful about going too far out on a limb on social issues if it wants to keep its support with independents.

Although our poll finds support for the amendment, it also finds that 51% of voters in the state support some form of legal recognition for gay couples- 26% for marriage and 25% for civil unions- with only 45% completely opposed to any. It may seem inconsistent that a majority supports either gay marriage or civil unions but also supports the amendment that would ban both of them. But what we find is that voters don't actually know what it does:
-Only 31% of voters correctly identify that Amendment 1 bans both gay marriage and civil unions.

-28% think that it only bans gay marriage.

-7% think that it actually legalizes gay marriage.

-34% admit that they don't know exactly what the amendment does.

When voters are informed that the amendment bans both gay marriage and civil unions their tune changes quite a bit. Only 41% of voters say they'll support it knowing that, while 42% are opposed. So despite the large current lead for the amendment, there is some hope for those trying to defeat it. It's just going to take a lot of education and effort over the final six weeks to make sure voters really understand exactly what they're voting on.

[MuseRider]

1. Phone bank until your ears are sore.

That is the only way we won against a Fred Phelps ordinance. We started calling the first day, we had 3 weeks. We won. It was non-stop work but that is what it took. If education is the key you can get it done but for 6 weeks a lot of people are going to have to give up their lives and their off time to call. It can be done but it is not a lot of fun.

I know this is a much bigger deal with a much larger scale to deal with but you also will have more people willing to put in the time. I am rooting for you NC.

[xchrom]

4. That...& we could use some media.

Especially from those research triangle dollars.

[William769]

2. I believe this one is going down to the wire.

But I believe there is still hope.



Op-ed: The Case for Victory in North Carolina

1. North Carolina voters support Amendment One... until they learn what it does. On March 29, Public Policy Polling (PPP), one of the most respected independent polling firms on the issue of same-sex marriage, found that support for the measure plummets when those surveyed understand the broad harms of Amendment One. Although the poll finds majority support for Amendment One, it also reveals that support falls below 50% when they learn what it does — and a 34% plurality say they are "not sure exactly" what Amendment One does, while 28% think it would only ban marriage. These numbers follow Elon University's poll in mid-March that showed 57% of likely voters oppose an amendment "that would prevent civil unions and domestic partnerships for same-sex couples." It leaves a window for a successful campaign if it’s fully funded to educate voters on what Amendment One would really do. PPP's Director Tom Jensen emphasized this point: "When voters are informed that the amendment bans both gay marriage and civil unions their tune changes quite a bit. Only 41% of voters say they'll support it knowing that, while 42% are opposed. So despite the large current lead for the amendment, there is some hope for those trying to defeat it. It's just going to take a lot of education and effort over the final six weeks to make sure voters really understand exactly what they're voting on."

2. Conservative support for Amendment One is crumbling. In just the past week, North Carolina Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis conceded that future generations are likely to repeal Amendment One within 20 years, given the age trend in support for same-sex marriage. Former Charlotte Mayor and Republican gubernatorial nominee Richard Vinroot came out opposed to Amendment One, joining other elected leaders like Tea Party Congresswoman Renee Ellmers. And John Hood, known as "the voice of conservatism in North Carolina" as president of the conservative John Locke Foundation, wrote in his statewide syndicated column that Amendment One is "unwise and unfair."

3. The pro-equality coalition opposing Amendment One is diverse, deep and unified. President Obama, who rarely speaks out on state ballot measures, went out of his way to release a statement via his campaign on March 16, noting that Amendment One would "single out and discriminate against committed gay and lesbian couples." He joins the North Carolina NAACP, the North Carolina Council of Churches, Alliance of Baptists, and dozens of other faith leaders in speaking to North Carolina's African-American population and Democrats in general. Cathy Bessant, former head of the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce and the top North Carolina official at Bank of America (which is headquartered in Charlotte and is one of the largest employers in the state) filmed a video against Amendment One. Democratic Gov. Bev Purdue, Sen. Kay Hagan, and every other state Democratic officeholder who has been asked have all also spoken out against Amendment One. Progressive organizations like Courage Campaign and the Human Rights Campaign along with bloggers from sites like Pam's House Blend, DailyKos, AMERICABlog are working daily to defeat Amendment One. Even Democratic National Committee Chairwoman and Florida congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, herself a supporter of marriage equality, said she would "certainly consider" funding the campaign to defeat Amendment One, and is in talks with the Coalition to Protect NC Families.

4. The conventional wisdom that only Republicans will vote in this election is flat wrong. It's wrong for three big reasons: One, North Carolina has early voting beginning on April 19 (including same-day registration) and an unusually large college student population with more than 300,000 voter-eligible college students, the overwhelming majority of whom is opposed to Amendment One. Two, North Carolina has a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary on May 8 to replace retiring Gov. Perdue, which will drive voters generally opposed to Amendment One. And three, just because Republican presidential candidates are on the ballot doesn't mean Republicans are rushing in droves to go vote. The New York Times recently reported that total voter turnout in Republican primaries as a percentage of eligible population has declined since 2008, reflecting a lack of enthusiasm for the candidates. Not only that, but with Mitt Romney pulling away from the field, conservative voters will be even less likely to have a reason to go vote on May 8.

http://www.advocate.com/Politics/Commentary/The_Case_for_Victory_in_North_Carolina/

[LonePirate]

3. NC is a southern state. There should never have been any doubts that it would pass.

This poll provides almost no surprising results. NC is a closely split Republican-Democratic state. Southern Republicans hate gay people pretty much more than any other group of Anericans apart from Muslims. With southern Democrats still divided on the issue, Amendment 1 stood (or stands) no chance of being defeated at the ballot, especially not with Obama's lack of public support for marriage equality.

[mitchtv]

5. I never expect anything from a confederate state

sad, but true. I'd love to be wrong

[Rittermeister]

6. I'm changing my voter registration

Looks like there's going to be one more Democrat in North Carolina.

[Evasporque]

7. So we know that 41% of the people in NC are most likely morons another 17% are uniformed morons...nt