How many justified shootings are there in a year?

[Robb]

I figured one of you guys would know, I can't find good data.

[rl6214]

1. Can I pat the answer over in your clubhouse?

[HooptieWagon]

2. Several hundred. Don't recall the exact number.

Most were law enforcement related. The information can be found either at DoJ website, or CDC website under death causes.

[petronius]

3. The UCR has a table on justifiable homicide:

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10shrtbl15.xls

And of course there are wide-ranging estimates of how many times firearms are used in self-defense (whether fired or not), but I don't know about justifiable non-fatal shootings specifically...

On edit: also, WISQARS provides fatal and non-fatal injury data for legal intervention, but it's limited to police and security persons.

[MicaelS]

4. FBI - Justifiable Homicide by Private Citizen 2007-2011

Expanded Homicide Data Table 15

Excel Version.

No data for 2012 yet, apparently. But 2007-2011 shows an average of 267 each year. An average of 215 per year by firearm. So 80% of Justifiable Homicide by civilians are by firearm.

[sarisataka]

5. That is a good question

to which there is no good answer.

DGUs are tracked in many ways but not consistently nor reliably. Also a "self-defense shooting" is often doublespeak for homicide or non-shooting DGU to "prove" a particular viewpoint.

Here is the best I can determine, but I make no claims of accuracy. I complied a range of numbers from both sides and took a rough average. For clarity, most come from hard right and pro-firearms sources as they tend to have more numbers.

DGUs:

Homicide- 240 +/- 10/ year (This is likely the most accurate number, based mostly on FBI and CDC stats. Less reliable sources claim the number should be closer to 1000)

Non-fatal shooting- 1600 (this is the least accurate number. Low end- one pro-gun site claimed ~18 incidents in a week so 936/yr. Wild high end claims of up to 20,000- clearly ridiculous)

DGU without shooting- a well beaten horse corpse. NCVS- 100,000 though wisely disputed as under-counting DGUs. The most politically neutral range is 250,000 and 370,000 based on 1997 study. Kleck- 2,000,000 though criticized for greatly over-counting from using too small of a data sample.

A nice summary from a Businessweek article that took on this same question:

What’s the upshot?

1. We don’t know exactly how frequently defensive gun use occurs.

2. A conservative estimate of the order of magnitude is tens of thousands of times a year; 100,000 is not a wild gun-nut fantasy.

3. Many gun owners (I am not one, but I know plenty) focus not on statistical probabilities, but on a worst-case scenario: They’re in trouble, and they want a fighting chance.

4. DGU does not answer any questions in this debate, but it’s a factor that deserves attention.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-12-27/how-often-do-we-use-guns-in-self-defense

Hope this helps

[GreenStormCloud]

6. Justifiable homicide is really about 1,000 per year, and rising.

The problem with the FBI stats is that they list the initial judgement which is sometimes reversed upon further investigation or trial. When it gets changed the update is often not forwarded to the FBI and often the FBI doesn't change their older records.

The number is rising as more people legally carrying means more criminals get unpleasant surprises from their intended victims.

Not-fatal justified shootings would be about 5,000 per year. I base that on about 85% of handgun wounds being survivable.

[Robb]

7. Quite a bit.

I wonder if you think DGU (with shooting) tracks with respect to fatal/nonfatal in the same way accidental shooting would? IIRC 1 in 9 (or so) accidental shootings seem to be fatal.

In other words, I can't imagine a reason justified shootings would be more fatal than accidental shootings; intuitively, I know, someone is aiming the gun, but given all the other factors present in stress shooting I would think it a wash.

[sarisataka]

8. I would suspect the ratio holds or

is a bit in favor of survivable. Accidentals shootings are often idiots pointing guns at others heads/ vitals at near contact distance. A DGU will involve stress, dark, center of mass- all things which could lead to a more survivable hit. I doubt it changes much, maybe 1 in 10-12 fatal.

My suspicion for the lack of data it two fold. On the official, i.e. FBI et al, side they don't care. Outside of general tracking of shooting incidents, self defense is in particularly relevant to their work.
On the political side, neither likes what they see as a trend. To those in favor of gun control, they see the numbers as too high thus weakening their arguments in favor of further laws. To those against gun control, the numbers are not high enough to support anecdotal statements of widespread DGU and thus provide evidence against further laws.

By chance I came across this today-

The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie, deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive and unrealistic. JFK

[ileus]

9. what would be better is an idea of how many DGU

didn't involve physical injury...

The last thing anyone with a SD firearm wants is to be forced into harming someone.

[lastlib]

10. maybe one......

in a bad year.....

[ManiacJoe]

11. Forgot the sarcasm tag?

[lastlib]

12. nope.

[ManiacJoe]

13. Care to explain your seemingly odd answer then?

[lastlib]

15. I don't believe in taking human life. Period.

[ManiacJoe]

16. An important piece of information that you neglected to add in the first place.

That would explain your answer of "one".

[oneshooter]

17. So you would rather see the lives of your family taken, rather than take one

life to save them?

[gejohnston]

18. I agree, however

I don't believe in letting anyone take mine or someone else I care about either.

[Jenoch]

14. Do you mean like this one?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1172130520

[NYC_SKP]

19. That's a justified shooting. And here's another one:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1172130439

There are probably far more justified shootings than have been cited in this thread, considering that not all are reported and not all are deadly.

----

[Tuesday Afternoon]

20. that was a life taken. regardless rather it was justifiable or not.

Last edited Wed Aug 21, 2013, 09:40 PM - Edit history (1)

I think that is the point the above poster is trying to make.

on edit: not saying it was a good point, just a point.

[BainsBane]

21. They consider any case where the defendant isn't convicted to be justified

[gejohnston]

24. that is the definition, and a court of law

is much better than bringing out the truth rather than relying on the fictions of self serving ideologues and speculation filled pontifications of pundits.
IOW, trial by media doesn't count.

[Eleanors38]

26. But GE, trial-by-jury is so-o-o-o passe.

[krispos42]

23. The ones that result in a justifiable homicide track at about 600 a year...

...according to the FBI. 400 by cops, 200 by regular citizens.

That number is called into question, as it may not reflect the outcomes of trials by juries; it might simply be the number of times per year that a prosecutor does not file charges when a person kills another.


Also, obviously, it doesn't include injuries due to defensive gunshots, or incidents where the intended victim fires but does not hit anybody.



Good question. The controversial Kleck (?) numbers put the amount at between 1¼ and 2½ million DGUs per year, but that was back in the early 90's; the crime rate is about half of what it was then.

And of course, those numbers include situations where a gun was deployed but not used, such as drawing and scaring off muggers, or grabbing a shotgun after hearing a strange noise in the house but finding nothing.

I think the rate of a person arming themselves with gun-in-hand is probably relatively high; the rate of encountering a situation where gun-in-hand is used as a deterrent is a decent but not overwhelming percentage of the former; the rate of discharging the gun in such a situation is a small sliver; and the rate of the discharge killing or wounding somebody is a decent percentage of that previous statistic.



WAG.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

25. Judging from all the violent criminas running around let's say -- not enough.

[Jenoch]

27. How childish are you?

You cannot debate an issue so you delete your thread?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023628473

[Tuesday Afternoon]

28. As a confirmed staunch supporter of The Self Delete. I will have to give Robb a by on that. -

However, I must say that his attitude towards the gun issue can seem to be rather innocent and naïve at times.

[NYC_SKP]

29. Well, there are justified shootings, and there are killings, and there are defensive brandishings.

No reliable data exists for any of these, though one could collect the data for reported shootings that were deemed defensive and justifiable, but that number would be a really low number to use.

My guess is that defensive uses of firearms as a tool of self defense number in the tens of thousands.