0-36: Why Kyle Shanahan's offense can't come from behind

[Auggie]

San Francisco Chronicle / 11-29-23

Kyle Shanahan is 0-36 with the 49ers when they have trailed by at least eight points in the fourth quarter, the second-most games without a win since 2000.

The only coach ahead of him: Jay Gruden (0-41). The coaches directly behind him: Eric Mangini (0-35), Hue Jackson (0-35-1), Pat Shurmur (0-34) and Steve Spagnuolo (0-33).

Shanahan’s offense is stuffed with versatile skill-position players. And that allows him to have limitless formations and play calls without changing personnel, which leaves defenses guessing if a run or pass is coming.

Take away the guesswork and 0-36 suggests much of the production disappears, too.

Link (paywall): https://www.sfchronicle.com/sports/49ers/article/49ers-mailbag-0-36-kyle-shanahan-s-offense-18514838.php

Whoa! That's some Achilles heel.

During the Bills@Eagles finale last week we witnessed how Jalen Hurts almost single-handedly kept his OT drive moving and ultimately ran for the winning TD. The 49ers, in comparison, struggle when the QB assumes a heavier burden in late game "hurry-up" mode, aka "predictable passing situations." We've seen it with Jimmy Garoppolo. We've seen it with Brock Purdy.

One would think this is top concern among the 49ers front office and coaching staff, and that work is underway to find solutions.

[JT45242]

1. The record for all teams when trailing by 8 points is bad ... just look at the % chance to win of football games in the

Add into that...
1. The SF defensive line could be susceptible to the run but is filled with pass rushers designed to protect a lead. So other teams may be able to run out the clock. (see the old knock against the Chiefs and other great offenses who had defenses that could not stop the run -- can't come back on offense if you cannot get back on the field. )
2. The SF teams have rarely trailed large to bad teams, who are more likely to give up big leads. The 49ers under Shanahan rarely turn the ball over a lot which is the main way that teams get behind big early to bad teams and then need to come back. Would be curious to see what the record of those 36 teams that beat the 49ers after leading by 8 or more points is. Likely not a lot of bad losses.
3. Curious as to who was hurt on the 49ers when they lost those games... they had a game where CMC and Samuels were both out. Take away a team's two most explosive weapons and yes it is hard to come back. Plus the Left tackle was out for all three recent losses. A few years ago, the 49ers led the league in player games missed due to injury, how many of those 36 come from that season.
4. The mobility of the QB that the 49ers have had has not been the greatest. You do not need to run like Hurts (who BTW is not a great thrower of the football for accuracy or distance), but it helps if you have someone elusive like Mahomes or Burrow who usually scramble to throw but can run when necessary.

Based on this website https://priceonomics.com/modeling-the-probability-of-winning-an-nfl-game/

The win rate at 7 or more point lead is 85% at start of 4th quarter and goes up from there. So, you would assume that starting the 4th wtr an 8 point or more lead is above 85% and increases from there. It is over 90% likely with a one or more score lead at 12 minutes.

People think it is far more common that it is because we remember famous collapses like the butt fumble, but usually you lose.

[Auggie]

4. You're missing the point of the story ...

it's not about surrendering leads. It's about an offensive system dependent on building leads by creating misdirection and confusion for defenses. In the hurry-up mode, two-minute offense, whatever-you-want-to-call-it, the 49ers do not have or utilize an offense different than this nor one that heavily relies on the ad lib or athletic skills of their QB. One could argue that's a good thing -- it keeps the QB healthier. But a 0-36 record is hard to ignore.

[Brother Buzz]

2. Shanahan needs to consult with Joe "the Comeback Kid" Montana

Montana had 31 fourth-quarter white-knuckle comebacks.

Bow howdy, I'm pining for the magical Montana/Clark days

[True Dough]

3. Tim Tebow could have led the 49ers to the promised land!

Right, Brother Buzz?

[Auggie]

5. They didn't call him Joe Cool for nothing

The comeback he staged in the 1979 Cotton Bowl is legendary. And it helped that Bill Walsh had confidence in Joe and his offense that allowed Joe to be Joe. I don't think Kyle Shanahan has been that generous with Purdy ... yet.

[Best_man23]

6. Montana did not have a big arm like many of his peers

What he did have was laser focused accuracy. He once said "I don't throw darts at balloons, I throw balloons at darts." The West Coast Offense was designed by Walsh in the 1970s for another QB who did not have a big arm (Ken Anderson) and was tailor made for Montana's skill set. Had Montana been drafted by the Cowboys (who were looking at him, but passed) or another team, I'm not sure he has the same career arc that he had with the 49ers.

Montana also benefited from a great supporting cast as his career progressed. Getting the GOAT Rice and Roger Craig in the mid 1980s helped set them up for two more SB runs.