Bad news for Bernie in Iowa: Bernie's support is concentrated in college towns

[Cali_Democrat]

Tony Leys
5:13 a.m. CST January 14, 2016

Bernie Sanders might slip in the Iowa caucuses' delegate tally because his support is relatively concentrated in college towns, the new Iowa Poll suggests.

The U.S. senator from Vermont, who is favored by many young liberals, holds a commanding lead over Hillary Clinton in Black Hawk County, home to the University of Northern Iowa; Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa; and Story County, home to Iowa State University. His support tops hers by 52 percent to 30 percent in those counties, the poll shows.

Those three counties account for 27 percent of his supporters, though they hold just 21 percent of all likely Democratic caucus participants, poll director Ann Selzer said.

Here’s the potential problem for Sanders: Success on caucus night isn’t judged by how many Iowans back a candidate. It’s based on how many “delegate equivalents” those supporters garner at their precinct caucuses. Each precinct elects only a certain number of delegates. So if a candidate’s supporters are concentrated in a few precincts, they could wind up translating into fewer delegates than if supporters were spread evenly across the state.


http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/14/sanders-could-be-hurt-by-concentration-of-young-fans/78741864/

[guillaumeb]

1. Your last sentence contains the key word. If.

Each precinct elects only a certain number of delegates. So IF a candidate’s supporters are concentrated in a few precincts, they could wind up translating into fewer delegates than if supporters were spread evenly across the state.

And if they are more widely spread out, what might be the outcome?

[Cali_Democrat]

4. The polling has indicated that 27% of his support comes from 3 counties

Those are college towns.

It's in the article.

[winter is coming]

6. Iowa is a pretty rural state.

Those "college town" counties may be the most populous ones in the state.

[sonofspy777]

2. Hmmm...I've seen this posted before

lacking new material?

[Cali_Democrat]

3. I didn't see this article posted here before

Do you have a link?

It's funny how some DUers try to scold others for posting articles.

As if it's so difficult to ignore the article and move on.

[kath]

7. Posted AT LEAST twice, maybe three times already.

[pstokely]

5. How many out of state students are registered in Iowa?

do they need an ID?