538 projects Cruz, Clinton to win Iowa

[RandySF]

Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz have the greatest chances of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from Monday, new polling-based forecasts from FiveThirtyEight show.

Cruz has a 51 percent chance of winning Iowa when national and state polls as well as endorsements are taken into account. In that forecast, Donald Trump trails Cruz with a 29 percent chance of winning Feb. 1.

A look at just state polls shows a much closer race between Trump and Cruz, giving the business magnate a better chance of winning by 2 percentage points, 44 percent to Cruz’s 42 percent.

All around, Hillary Clinton is believed to have an all-but-certain victory over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa.



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/538-cruz-clinton-trump-sanders-rubio-217901#ixzz3xXEBn8BR

[joshcryer]

1. Cruz IA, Rubio NH, and NV, Trump SC.

[Thinkingabout]

2. We will continue to work like we are at the bottom of the pack.

[DURHAM D]

3. Yep.

The 82% looks good but I will just keep making phone calls.

I live a couple states away from Iowa but may go there next weekend. Why should Iowans have all the early fun?

[Number23]

4. "Both forecasts show Trump with the greatest chance of winning"

LORD have mercy...

[Metric System]

5. It's a reminder for Clinton and Sanders supporters that Trump is the real enemy.

[Number23]

6. And it's a reminder for me why I will never, ever, ever be a Republican