Nate Silver's debate analysis

[RandySF]

I’m not quite sure what to think about that debate. I keep looking for signs that Sanders is interested in expanding his coalition between his predominantly white, liberal base, and I’m not really seeing them. At the same time, Sanders got a lot of screen time tonight — and tonight’s debate is likely to get much better ratings than the previous two editions held on Saturdays — and greater exposure is usually a good thing for the trailing candidate.

Another thing I’m unsure about: Sanders was feistier and angrier than we’ve seen him in the past. How will that play to the home audience? Do voters like Angry Bernie or the more lovable, absent-minded-professor, Larry David version of him? That too could be a question that divides Sanders’s base voters from the broader audience he’ll need to be competitive in states like South Carolina.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nbc-democratic-debate-presidential-election-2016/

[snoringvoter]

1. Maybe if Nate would stop sucking the corporate teat...

then he'll realize more than just one demographics for Bernie.

More than one.

[Champion Jack]

2. yes

[mucifer]

3. The Larry David version is angry. Have you watched "Curb"?

[left-of-center2012]

4. Why do we care what Nate thinks?

Can't we form our own opinions?

[RandySF]

6. I didn't see any directive to adopt anyone's point of view.

And, obviously some people, including you, took a moment to read it. So I think it's a question you should ask yourself.

[left-of-center2012]

9. you, took a moment to read it

No. Life is to short.

[litlbilly]

7. Seems like Nate now takes his instructions from the Clinton camp.

[litlbilly]

8. Amazing what money will do.

[cheapdate]

13. Or maybe that's just what he (Silver) thinks.

[question everything]

16. Funny. When Nate predicts what people want, he is god sent

Certainly he was here when he predicted Obama's win.

[jfern]

5. What about Jim Webb? He was supposed to be the anti Hillary according to 538.

[JonLeibowitz]

12. That's right, because there is no room to the left of Hillary. Or so I've been told by the wizards..

[thereismore]

10. Nate is focused on how Bernie will look. Fuck you Nate. Bernie is pissed and so am I. nt

[grntuscarora]

11. Oooh, the Oracle at Delphi speaks.

nt

[Gothmog]

14. Here are two of the top comments

Nate and Harry Eaton are correct about appeals to the key demographics in the base http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nbc-democratic-debate-presidential-election-2016/

HARRY ENTEN 10:31 PM
Not really. What I do see, though, is Clinton clearly knows where her base is. She knows she needs black voters in her corner. That’s why she is wrapping herself in the Obama cloth. A lot of people think the Democratic base is exclusively white liberals; it’s not. It’s black Democrats. Unless Sanders can gain support among that group, this primary is over.

NATE SILVER 10:35 PM
More seriously — I agree with Harry that the candidates have been speaking mostly to their respective bases on the substance. So I’m wondering whether Sanders’s feistier demeanor tonight will play positively or negatively with the home audience.

Sanders will not be the nominee unless he expands his base and I do not think that Sanders did this. Attacking President Obama is not a good way to appeal to African American voters

[mhatrw]

15. style points silver