2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumEarly Presidential Electoral Vote Prediction
Just for shits and giggles I sat down and looked at a map today and this iswhat I came up with
please disagree with and add your own predictions:
HI 4, WA 12, OR 7, CA 55, NM 5, CO 9, NV 6 98 for Obama
MN 10, IA 6, WI 10, MI 16, IL 20 61 for Obama total 159
ME 4, NH 4, VT 3, MA 11, CT 7, RI 4, NY 29 62 for Obama total 221
PA 19, NJ 13, DC 3, MD 10, DE 3, VA 13 61 for Obama total 282
AK 3, ID 4, MT 4, WY 3, UT 6 20 for the GOP
ND 3, SD 3, NE 5, KS 6, OK 7 TX 36 60 Total for the GOP 80
MO 11, AR 6, LA 9, KY 9, TN 11 46 Total for the GOP 126
MS 7, AL 9, GA 15, SC 9, NC 15 WV 5 60 Total for the GOP 186
Toss Ups:
Arizona 11
Florida 27
Ohio 19
Total 57
My guess is that Obama will win with 282-339 electoral votes
unblock
(52,221 posts)not an unreasonable prediction, though early times....
in any event, i think obama will comfortably win, though not necessarily by a huge electoral margin.
no single-state diebold nail-biter, but no landslide either.
Muskypundit
(717 posts)I just don't buy that all of a sudden there is that many more Hispanics voting in Arizona now to change it.
demosincebirth
(12,537 posts)Muskypundit
(717 posts)Do tell
demosincebirth
(12,537 posts)gopiscrap
(23,760 posts)I think Arizona is winnable because of al the totally pissed off Hispanics, but also many others even some moderates who are appalled at the craziness down there.
I would say Ohio is more likely a win than Fl because I don't trust Rick Scott and FL has that huge history of fucking around with elections.
AlinPA
(15,071 posts)in the last election. The GOP totally controls the state.
Redstate Bluegirl
(213 posts)Red again. I agree with everything else.
racaulk
(11,550 posts)Last edited Thu Feb 9, 2012, 12:24 AM - Edit history (1)
282+186+57=525. You're missing 13 electoral votes as follows:
--Indiana is missing in your analysis entirely -- 11 electoral votes
--Texas will have 38 electoral votes in this election, not 36
I largely agree with your analysis. I think Obama will hold everything he won in 2008 except for North Carolina, Indiana, NE-2, and possibly Nevada.
gopiscrap
(23,760 posts)I do think IN will go R plus I thought TX had 36 I stand corrected...thanks...the result is that I do feel Obama will be re-elected
center rising
(971 posts)musicblind
(4,484 posts)with the sentiment in this state, from what I've seen... I think Obama is going to take NC.
Plus, having the convention here is going to help a lot.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html
PPP has been very accurate, especially in predicting North Carolina, as they are headquartered in Raleigh, NC.