Here's Why You Shouldn't Freak Out About Bernie Sanders' Numbers In This New Poll

[applegrove]

Here's Why You Shouldn't Freak Out About Bernie Sanders' Numbers In This New Poll

by Ariel Edwards-Levy at the Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire-poll_us_569eb6a2e4b04c813761e3de?section=politics

"SNIP.............


Taking each individual poll at face value often leads to a bit of whiplash. In New Hampshire, for instance, seven polls have been released since the beginning of the month, many of which are flatly contradictory:

•CNN/WMUR, which has Sanders ahead by 27 points
•Monmouth, which has Sanders ahead by 14 points
•Fox, which has Sanders ahead by 13 points
•NBC/Marist/Wall Street Journal, which has Sanders ahead by 4 points
•ARG, which released two polls showing Sanders ahead by 6 and 3 points, respectively, and
•Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, that has Clinton up by 3 points

Our best chance of figuring out the actual state of the race isn't to figure out which of those surveys is most likely to be "right," but to look at all that data together.

HuffPost Pollster's average, which combines all of the publicly released polling on the race, currently gives Sanders a lead of about 9 points:



...............SNIP"

[Renew Deal]

1. CNN is an outlier, and Fox is BS

But the trends are not positive for Hillary

[applegrove]

3. I agree. The trend favours Bernie.

[Hortensis]

16. "Is The Bernie Sanders Surge Real?" 538 Chat.

There's some good stuff in here for both candidates, but since I'm supporting Hillary right now I'll just post this, and Bernie's people will have to read at the link to find stuff they want to see.

natesilver: FWIW, our FiveThirtyEight national polling average (which we’re not publishing yet — stay tuned) has Clinton up 22 percentage points. Although that was before the Monmouth poll released today, which might tighten things a bit. But somewhere in the high teens or perhaps low 20s nationally is where the race seems to be. By contrast, our averaging method would have had Clinton up by 25 points at the end of December.

So that suggests some tightening, but not as much as the media narrative — which is pretty blatantly cherry-picking which polls it emphasizes — seems to imply.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-bernie-sanders-surge-real/

[brooklynite]

2. Add to which, polling is a reflection of future intent...

...it doesn't tell you about the respective campaigns' turnout operations to convert that intent into real votes.

[Fawke Em]

4. Hmmm...

Don't you guys call that unskewing polls?

[Motown_Johnny]

5. 9 is still a good lead, outside the margin of error.

Plus it should go way up if/when Bernie wins Iowa.


Hillary really does need to win Iowa. If not, she could lose New Hampshire BIG, and have no momentum moving forward.

[Dawson Leery]

6. CNN is an outlier.

If the indies go into the GOP primary, NH will certainly be close for the Democrats.

[kenn3d]

7. I think the Clinton campaign may indeed be freaking and rightfully so.

Again, statistically meaningful trends and conclusions cannot be made by comparing the poll results of different pollsters using different methods. Averaging is indeed more meaningful especially when weighted by how recent the survey, and the historical accuracy (quality) of the pollster.

But comparison of the current poll data from any given polling firm to the last prior data from the same firm can be meaningful if comparable methodology is used. Assuming this was so for the polls list in the OP:

•CNN/WMUR, which has Sanders ahead by 27 points is actually +17 Sanders since prior CNN/WMUR
•Monmouth, which has Sanders ahead by 14 points is actually +17 Sanders since prior Monmouth
•Fox, which has Sanders ahead by 13 points is actually +12 Sanders since prior Fox
•NBC/Marist/Wall Street Journal, which has Sanders ahead by 4 points is actually -5 Sanders since prior NBC/Marist
•ARG, which released two polls showing Sanders ahead by 6 and 3 points, is actually +3 Sanders since prior ARG
•Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, that has Clinton up by 3 points is actually +5 Sanders since prior PPP

Not too much contradiction there I'd say. And weighted toward the most recent polls in the list it looks very convincingly freaking positive for Sanders.

[applegrove]

8. Good point.

[kenn3d]

14. And on the National scene...

The latest YouGov/Economist national poll released this morning reports Sanders 41 (+8) and Clinton 50 (-8) for a net swing of +16 Sanders since the prior YouGov/Economist (a week ago).

[daleanime]

9. Because it's good news?

[kenfrequed]

10. I would look at it as a trend...

But I still think the CNN poll is inflated.

My guess is about 11 points though if he takes Iowa it will be higher.

[Quixote1818]

11. 9 points is still a blow out. nt

[Kalidurga]

12. Unskew those polls!!!!!

[DCBob]

13. I still think a huge factor will be independents choosing to vote GOP...

Thus reducing Bernie big advantage with that voting block.

[MineralMan]

15. However NH turns out, both candidates will earn delegates from

that state, in proportion to the votes. The only thing that counts in the nomination is the delegate count from all 50 states. Nothing else matters, in the end.

We'll find out how NH voters feel after that state's primary, just as we will from every other state. Watch the delegate count. That is all.