Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by 4 points in Iowa, just days before caucuses

[Bubzer]

The Washington Times

"With just days to go until the Iowa caucuses, Sen. Bernard Sanders of Vermont has a 4-point lead over former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Hawkeye State, according to a new poll on the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination contest.

Mr. Sanders was at 49 percent in the Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday, Mrs. Clinton was at 45 percent, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley was at 4 percent.

“Is this deja vu all over again? Who would have thunk it when the campaign began? Secretary Hillary Clinton struggling to keep up with Sen. Bernie Sanders in the final week before the Iowa caucus,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll."

snip...

"Those who described themselves as “very liberal” supported Mr. Sanders by a 63 percent to 32 percent margin, while “somewhat liberal” voters backed Mrs. Clinton, 53 percent to 40 percent. “Moderate” and “conservative” voters were split, with 47 percent for Mrs. Clinton and 46 percent for Mr. Sanders."

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/27/bernie-sanders-has-4-point-lead-over-hillary-clint/

[hrmjustin]

1. Hillary leads by 3 in the NBC wsj poll.

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/trump-strong-three-early-states-clinton-sanders-battle-poll-n505516

[Bubzer]

4. The Marist poll's polling methods are already under fire... I'd take it with a grain of salt...

Particularly given the number of recent polls suggesting otherwise.

[hrmjustin]

6. How so?

[Betty Karlson]

23. Step 1: exlcude every voter under 25 from your poll.

Step 2: conclude that without the youth vote, Clinton is still ahead.

[hrmjustin]

26. You are claiming they have no one below 25?

[Betty Karlson]

29. The poll did not include anyone who had ot caucused before. That would exclude most of those

who were under 18 in 2008...

[hrmjustin]

31. Wrong.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511082009

[liberal N proud]

2. That's funny, this thread says different

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511081764

[still_one]

3. Thanks of the bullshit from the Washington Times. The latest polls show Hillary up 3 points in Iowa

today.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Iowa%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_January%2028%202016.pdf

No one knows who will win Iowa, it is too volatile, and essentially a tie

[Bubzer]

5. See post #4

[still_one]

8. All the polls are taken with a grain of salt in Iowa at this stage. It is too volatile

[Bubzer]

9. Thats a fair statement.

[still_one]

15. A lot of folks are nervous, and jumping on any poll that supports their candidate. Iowa is going to

be an interesting caucus.

If people are biting their nails over the polls, we have a long way to go, and they won't have any nails left by the end of the primaries.

My view is while all the fun and games will happen, people should focus on getting the votes out for their particular candidate, which I am sure they are doing

[Bubzer]

20. I can agree with that.

Regardless of which candidate will go on to the GE, election season cannot end soon enough for me. I'm tired of all the ugliness.

[gyroscope]

7. The information is accurate

Quinnipiac Poll shows Sanders leading Clinton by 4 points

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/27/quinnipiac-poll-shows-sanders-leading-clinton-4-points/79400506/

[still_one]

10. In that poll 19% say they could change their minds before the caucus, and 2% undecided. So if you

believe any poll at this stage is actually predicting the outcome of Iowa, I beg to differ.

Iowa is up in the air period. The rest is political sparing on DU trying to justify bragging rights, which will only be realized after the caucus results

[gyroscope]

12. We all know that

That's true of any pre-election poll. What's your point?

Obviously anybody can change their mind at the last minute.

[still_one]

16. My point is that it is that the polls for Iowa are not a reliable indicator.

[Bubzer]

13. I think the number of trending polls suggesting Bernie is leading disagrees with you.

Including the more recent Quinnipiac poll. But I'll agree to disagree.

[Bubzer]

14. Side note, the Marist poll is a day older than the Quinnipiac poll... so it's not the latest poll.

You can compare polling dates here:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2319

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/IApolls/IA160124/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll%20Iowa%20Tables%20of%20Likely%20Republican%20Caucus-Goers_January%2028%202016.pdf#page=1

[Hassin Bin Sober]

30. Yep. Kinda senseless to fight over polls 3 days out. We'll know Monday night.

[johnlucas]

11. A 3-in-a-row run favoring Bernie Sanders in Iowa, NH, SC & this is a wrap

Rooting for that 3-in-a-row.
Go 'head Bernie.
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina.
Win 'em all back-to-back & let's get this thing back on track!

John Lucas

[still_one]

17. and Nate Silver has a different perspective.

[johnlucas]

22. Let me know what Nate Gold says & maybe I'll take it seriously

Better yet get me Nate Platinum.
I can't deal with 2nd place predictors.

John Lucas

[Goblinmonger]

32. I know. Wasn't it awesome when Trump imploded

after he announced he was running. I wonder what would have happened if Trump had actually succeeded contrary to Silver's prediction? Wouldn't that have been crazy?

[hedda_foil]

19. Let's not put the cart before the horse. We have to work like hell to make that happen.

And with the hysteria the Democratic establishment and the media are kicking up, even if Bernie does win all three, they're not going to accept Bernie as the D candidate for months and months. Hills will keep going primary after primary and they'll try to set up an establishment dark horse too.

Just my opinion, of course.

[johnlucas]

24. Oh yeah most definitely. They hate him running but let them even TRY to subvert the base...

We'll tear that system down for good if they pull a fast one.
I don't care about the Democratic Party. I care about the plans to make this a fairer society.
And if the Democratic Party's Command Center is against that, then they can follow Trump to the toilet in November 2016.

Democratic National Committee better COMMIT to what the voters want (Bernie) or they will be DESTROYED.
THAT'S the mindset we need to be on in 2016.

Hillary triangulated her way from any principles she may or may not have had.
Got too good & too caught up in playing the game.
She had her chance & this is who she is.
When she loses AGAIN with the same strategies, the DNC has to accept her defeat & get behind the People's Nominee.

In 2014 I thought for SURE we would be seeing Hillary vs. Jeb.
And I was fully prepared to back Hillary against Jeb even though I KNOW Hillary won't really change things.
Turns out the future is much harder to predict than I thought.
This circus clown Donald Trump has usurped every single Republican candidate INCLUDING Jeb.
And Bernie Sanders has snuck up on Hillary just like Obama did in 2008.

We are now looking at Bernie vs. Trump & that's one of the easiest decisions I EVER had to make.
If Bernie can supercede the mass media bias that's against him & for Hillary & keep rising in the polls, I'm not worried about his chances making that 3-in-a-row run.

If she was legitimate & genuine, Bernie wouldn't HAVE to run & she could be the First Female President all she wanted.
But she's just not made that way so Bernie had to step in.

DNC better recognize that this is not the era where TV & radio & newspaper have near total influence on the people's views.
The Internet has replaced all 3 & we can sniff out screwjobs a lot easier than we used to.
When the people vote Bernie, DNC better Know Their Role & Shut Their Mouths like The Rock says.

John Lucas

[awake]

18. While I support Bernie the WashintonTimes is a Right Wing Rag

Do not buy it move on

[Bubzer]

21. WashintonTimes may not be the most reputable, however, Quinnipiac is.

Theirs is the poll being cited.
You can see it here:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2319

[riversedge]

25. Andrea Mitchell just now could not bring herself to give the numbers

Nor could she say "leading or leads"--instead she said within the margin of error. She also used another word--like 'tightening" but I am not sure.

[SheenaR]

27. Everyone needs to relax

Honestly, the only poll that will truly give an accurate reading is the DMR/Selzer poll coming out this Saturday. When that is out, everyone can toot their own horns because Selzer is as accurate as it gets (according to Lord Nate Silver also)

[Bubzer]

34. She's already made at least one very interesting statment.

"60 percent of the voters in the Democratic caucuses will be first-time caucus attendees" - If it's true, as has been suggested, that first time caucus persons will be young folks who will be voting for the first time, then Bernie most certainly has the edge.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/

[workinclasszero]

28. The washington moonie times? Really?

I would wash my eyes out with bleach after reading that reich wing teahaddist rag!




The Washington Times

The Washington Times is an American daily newspaper. It is published as a broadsheet at 3600 New York Avenue NE, Washington, D.C., United States. It was founded in 1982 by the founder of the Unification Church, Sun Myung Moon and was owned by News World Communications, an international media conglomerate associated with the church, until 2010 when it was purchased directly by a group led by Moon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Washington_Times

[Bubzer]

35. I'll tell you the same thing I told awake.

Washington Times may not be the most reputable, however, Quinnipiac is.
Theirs is the poll being cited.
You can see it here:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2319

[John Poet]

36. If Hillary can't win by at least +10 percent, it's a LOSS.

Hillary was the heavyweight, the magnificient, the "inevitable". She should be crushing Sanders, and it's virtually tied. A "victory" by her of a few percent in Iowa, would be no victory at all.

Bernie can claim victory in Iowa, if it ends up only close.

If he actually beats her in raw votes, well, even worse for her.

[Tarc]

37. A 4 point lead with a MoE of +/- 4% is a tie

[Bubzer]

38. True enough.

I would point to the recent trend showing Bernie in the lead though. Still, it's close enough to still be a virtual toss up.