Brand Spanking New Monmouth University Iowa Poll-HRC -47% SBS 42% MOM 6%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

IOWA: CLINTON CLINGS TO CAUCUS LEAD
But Sanders makes gains among most voting blocs
West Long Branch, NJ – Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 5 points in the latest Monmouth
University Poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers, which is down from 22 points just one month
ago. High turnout could make this race even tighter.
Hillary Clinton currently garners the support of 47% of likely Democratic caucusgoers compared
to 42% for Bernie Sanders. Clinton’s lead has shrunk from the 55% to 33% advantage she held in
December. Martin O’Malley clocks in at 6% of the vote, which is unchanged from a month ago. Another
6% are uncommitted or undecided.

http://tinyurl.com/zdz6qkg

[HerbChestnut]

1. Wow, that's a 17 point gain for Bernie since their last poll.

Great results with only a few days left before the caucus.

[ram2008]

2. And now we wait for Selzer...

It will be a turnout election. Depending on how you model the turnout you'll end up with different numbers, small Hillary lead or small Bernie lead. Selzer is usually best at predicting Iowa turnout, I expect her next poll will show a tie.

[Jarqui]

3. Again the demographics favor Hillary

43% men, 47% women is good

but 29% under the age of 49 is swings `15% of the young vote to the older voters that favor Hillary.

Since they do not provide a breakdown I can't be sure. When I plugged those numbers into another recent Hillary-Bernie poll, it took a 51-44 Sanders +7 result and flipped it to 42-52 Clinton +10 in the worst case. Pretty dramatic shift.

So demographics are important and therefore, I do not have much faith in these numbers beyond saying the race is probably close.

[Godhumor]

4. And again, the close turnout in male to female is actually pro-Bernie, not Clinton

The spread, for a likely voters screen, should be wider not narrower.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. What do you think of my analysis in Post 5?

[Godhumor]

9. I believe I read that in predicted support, 27% of Bernie's support is in 3 counties

Worth only 12% of the delegates.

I think your analysis is a strong bet, at least before the game gets played.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. This statement from Dr. Murray is odd

“Given the way Iowa’s Democratic caucuses work, Clinton could start the night with more
supporters, but Sanders could win the delegate count,” said Murray

and contradicts virtually everything I read elsewhere.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The only poll that counts is the one on Monday.

I will add that since it is a caucus and delegates are allocated proportionally Secretary Clinton benefits from the fact her support is much more dispersed along Iowa's ninety nine counties than Senator Sanders whose support is concentrated in three Iowa Counties with large college student populations. Senator Sanders can conceivably win the pop vote and get less delegates.


BTW, expect a bombshell on Sunday, you heard it here first.

[Jarqui]

8. Might be a bigger media bombshell for Hillary Monday if Sanders takes this state.

It could go either way at this point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Bombshell will be on Sunday...

Remember you heard it from me , first.

[SheenaR]

19. Well now you have me interested DSB

haha.. Major endorsement coming? I don't know why Sunday though. I would think anything huge would come out Saturday to give voters time to get all the info. Sounds good for your side though.

[Alfresco]

7. :-)

[Nanjeanne]

10. Wonderful News for Sanders

From article:

Hillary Clinton currently garners the support of 47% of likely Democratic caucusgoers compared
to 42% for Bernie Sanders. Clinton’s lead has shrunk from the 55% to 33% advantage she held in
December. Martin O’Malley clocks in at 6% of the vote, which is unchanged from a month ago. Another
6% are uncommitted or undecided.

Clinton enjoys a lead over Sanders among female voters by 50% to 38%, but that is not as large
as her 61% to 27% advantage last month. The two are basically tied among men – 46% for Sanders and
43% for Clinton. Last month, Clinton had a slight 47% to 42% edge among men.
Clinton leads Sanders by 54% to 34% among voters age 50 and older, which is slightly weaker
than her 63% to 26% lead in December. Sanders continues to hold the advantage among voters under 50
by a 59% to 31% margin, which is wider than his 48% to 38% lead last month.
“Support for Sanders has come from those who are new to the process, but the current poll
indicates he is also cutting into Clinton’s lead among die-hard Democratic partisans,” said Patrick
Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ

Also noting the demographics of those polled - only 15% were in the big Sanders pool of 18-34 versus 40% in Clinton's camp of 50-64 and 31% over 65:

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
43% Male 57% Female
94% White, non-Hispanic
6% Other
15% 18-34
14% 35-49
40% 50-64
31% 65

Given the heavily weighted poll in the over 50 age range - I'm more and more optimistic that Sanders is going to do GREAT!

[MoonRiver]

11. Looks like her lead is just outside the 4.4 MoE

Good!

[HerbChestnut]

18. That's not the way Margins of Error work

The MoE applies to each candidate. In other words, Hillary is at 47 +/- 4.4 and Bernie is at 42 +/- 4.4. Since Bernie's maximum is higher than Hillary's minimum, this poll results in a statistical tie.

[SheenaR]

20. Beat me to it

I've seen that a lot this week. MoE is not understood by a lot more people than I thought

[workinclasszero]

14. Great thanks DSB

[NurseJackie]

15. Things aren't looking too good for Bernie.

I'm confident that this thing will be over by Super Tuesday. Although it will still be mathematically possible for Bernie to win the nomination after Super Tuesday, it will be abundantly clear that he has no chance of doing so. Before the end of March, it will be mathematically impossible for Bernie to secure enough delegates to win the nomination.

Won't that be a glorious day!? The day that Bernie concedes (or withdraws, or suspends his campaign) and graciously endorses Hillary will finally put an end to all of the discord and rancor on this web site.

Even his most hardcore supporters will follow Bernie's lead and will support Hillary and help her to defeat the Republican nominee.

(Oh, silly me! What was I thinking?! )

[workinclasszero]

16. If Bernies Millennial Army

turns out to be fiction...he is gonna get beat in Iowa in 4 days!

[johnnyrocket]

17. Sanders can win Iowa, the caucus process will allow people the contemplate their Hillary choice...

...in public, with others around. They can easily switch last minute. I say 10-15% of Hillary's support is name ID.