2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumToday's Nate's 538 Primary Polls-Only Forecast: South Carolina-Hillary-95%, Bernie-5%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/#polls-onlyAccording to our latest polls-only forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 95% chance of winning the South Carolina primary.
Yupy
(154 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)unless you think AA voters are influenced by lily white states like Iowa and VT.
Everything always changes. Always changes.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Even though the hardcore Bernie fans are certainly, uh, "enthusiastic" ... I think it will be difficult for them to remain convincingly so as we approach Super Tuesday.
I predict that the cheering on Bernie's behalf will become louder, but it will be unmistakably less enthusiastic, and will begin to sound like perfunctory over-compensation.
It won't be long now. When it becomes clear that Bernie has no mathematical pathway to the nomination, peace and harmony will return to this web site.
Bjornsdotter
(6,123 posts)...if Nate Silver is right or wrong. My opinion is that Bernie will get more than 5%.
It will be interesting to see how it all turns out.
Hillary Clinton has an 95% chance of winning the South Carolina primary.
Follow the link provided for more.
Bjornsdotter
(6,123 posts)...I thought it was 95% of the vote.
Mea culpa....
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)Last edited Thu Jan 28, 2016, 08:14 PM - Edit history (1)
I hope Nate is right (as he usually is)
frazzled
(18,402 posts)He's saying she has a 95% chance of winning SC, not that she will win 95% of the vote. Just to make sure everyone read it right.
Bjornsdotter
(6,123 posts)...what I did.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)Alfresco
(1,698 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Total domination by the Clinton campaign!
Well you will always have NH Bernie fans