538: "What if Sanders loses Iowa? It’s probably over."

[Renew Deal]

It’s probably over. Not that I’d expect Sanders to drop out of the race. Nor would I expect the media to stop covering it. Depending on Clinton’s margin of victory, you’d probably see some headlines about her resilience, but others saying the results had “raised doubts” about her campaign.

None of that would necessarily matter. Iowa should be one of the half-dozen or so most favorable states in the country for Sanders; New Hampshire is one of the few that ranks even higher for him. If Sanders can’t win Iowa, he probably won’t be winning other relatively favorable states like Wisconsin, much less more challenging ones like Ohio and Florida. His ceiling wouldn’t be high enough to win the nomination unless something major4 changes.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-bernie-sanders-wins-iowa/

Monday is do or die for the Sanders campaign.

[Health Wagon]

1. Nate will be served raw crow

Monday at 11:59pm CT.

[ErisDiscordia]

7. I'll bring the relish! (bad puns. I love them!)

[reformist2]

2. Nate is useless - His analysis didn't anticipate that the race in Iowawould close up the way it has.

[Jarqui]

3. I don't know what's up with Nate. Bernie is only 3.5 pts behind Hillary in WI now

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_presidential_primary-3764.html

If he wins NH (likely) and comes close in Iowa, I say he pulls ahead in WI

[Romulox]

4. Nate, you've been wrong up until now. Care to double down? nt

[cali]

5. I expect Hillary to be the nominee. I haven't a clue as to

how Iowa will sugar off, but this is just the beginning for this movement, or rather it's the rebirth of what Occupy sparked. Bernie and his supporters have breathed new life into it.

And when Bernie returns to the Senate, he will be one of its most powerful members.

When he speaks, millions will be listening and responding.

[Metric System]

10. Cali, do you think Sanders supporters can mobilize and get more progressives nominated and

elected to the Senate and House? It seems to me that's where things really need to change to get Washington to change. As it stands right now, Americans are sending mostly moderate Dems to extreme conservatives to Washington to represent them.

[cali]

12. Yes, and over on the Bernie subreddit

they're working on it. It's impressive. They are so disciplined over there it blows my mind.

[Renew Deal]

15. I think that's the key to this whole thing working.

Because electing Sanders isn't enough. He needs friends, even in seats that are currently occupied by Democrats.

[GreatGazoo]

16. Sanders can re-energize many who are turned off to elections

Beating Clinton would open people's minds to the idea that real change is possible and we don't have to settle for someone who seems so concerned about whether the GOP congress likes their ideas.

Free some minds and the votes will follow.

[Bjornsdotter]

6. According to this logic

....McCain would have been out in 2008 and Romney would have been out in 2012.

Let's let the people of Iowa decide.

[Renew Deal]

14. His logic isn't cause and effect

He is saying that the map gets difficult for Bernie after NH. The opposite was true for McCain.

[Bjornsdotter]

17. I really like Nate Silver

....but he and others never thought that Sanders or Trump would do as well as they have. On that front they have been wrong. I have no idea how it will all shake out and I look forward to going back and seeing who was the most accurate.

[Renew Deal]

19. It's important to keep in mind what 538 is doing

They make predictions based on existing polling information. So based on the November 2015 polls, Hillary had a 75% chance. Based on January 2016 polls, she might have a 55% chance. That's the number they should be judged on. This is how Rasmussen ends up being so accurate. The post BS for months at a time and put out an accurate last poll.

[ErisDiscordia]

8. Somehow I think 358 is suffering the IBM Effect

It's the realization that the technology has advanced, and you haven't, and it's destroying your mighty empire...see also: Data General, DEC, and a lot more.

[Health Wagon]

9. Really?

Ask him about his prediction with the Canada, UK elections and the Scottish referendum. He failed, miserably.

[ram2008]

11. What happens if Sanders wins Iowa? Nate's reputation as being #1 is over

We'll see

[Renew Deal]

13. It's in the article

[nichomachus]

18. If Hillary crushes Bernie with her dirty Clintonian tactics

The Democratic Party can say goodby to legions of younger voters. It will become the party of geriatric conservatives.