Why polls in Iowa can be so screwy

[Peacetrain]

I am going to let you guys in on a little secret.. Almost everyone I know, refuses to do polls anymore.

Basically this is why.. we have these candidates here for a year.. starting their campaigns.. and the polls begin not too long after they start.. and if you answer one.. (I am talking from personal experience here) you get inundated with polls from every corner..

And because the candidates are here so long.. over the years we have learned not to answer any of them.. oh we still get some calls..but no where near what we would get if we agreed to answer one or two of them..and if I do not recognize the number on the caller ID.. I just do not pick up anymore

There is no rest.. literally no rest once they get you in the system..the phone rings off the hook from 5 to around 8:30 PM

People are so many times surprised that on caucus night.. the results are so different what the polls were.. that is basically the reason.. at least it in our little part of Iowa.

So everyone keep their noses to the grindstone..because.. no one is going to know for sure until the caucuses are over..

[daleanime]

1. K&R.....

[Peacetrain]

2. I know.. I never will forget when Kerry was coming in at about 7% in the polls

Edwards was just pounding him.. and Kerry took the caucuses.. and the media just about dropped their teeth.. this is the reason.. we are not a good state to poll just because of the length the candidates are here..

[PoliticAverse]

3. Thank you for the injection of reality. n/y

[Peacetrain]

4. Its just one of those crazy things

You just stay the course.. that is why people do not drop out here.. there is no way to know.. till that night

[JustAnotherGen]

5. That's good to know!

Thanks!

[Peacetrain]

11. Your Welcome!!!

[Bettie]

6. I don't answer my phone these days unless I know

who is on the other end. I'm tired of constant polling.

[Peacetrain]

10. Me too.. me too!!! NT

[frazzled]

7. It's about the caucus system itself

Unlike NH, which holds a regular primary and where people get just as many calls and door knocks (and having worked 2 presidential cycles there, I can say that most people you are asked to contact by phone or in person are pretty receptive--don't know how they do it, but they do), the Iowa caucus (and other caucus states) have always been notoriously difficult to poll. You can't just show up at the local polling place down the street for 10 minutes, or send in an absentee ballot. It's a commitment of an entire evening, where you have to show up in person, form into groups, re-form into other groups if a candidate doesn't reach 15%, etc. It's hardest on people with young children--you have to get a baby sitter, etc.

Caucuses have always been difficult to poll.

[Peacetrain]

9. I love the caucus system for party building

but you are so right caucuses are hard to poll.. no doubt .. its commitment

[frazzled]

12. I like caucuses too

I attended caucuses in MN starting in 1992 (my choice then, Tom Harkin, was not popular! I was in a little group.). I also attended state-level caucuses to select governor candidates when I lived in MA.

If those are anything like Iowa's, which I've never attended, there is a lot of party business done too.

[Peacetrain]

15. oh my gosh yes.. that is what a lot of people do not understand

and this caucus is just the beginning.. we do delegates who go on the the next caucus.. (Out of my caucus two delegates will be selected).. and it really is very simple, but it does seem to confuse the press.. we select delegates with a percentage instead of a 51% take all..because each of our candidates have so much to offer.. and the delegates that the candidate gets goes on and then on up to the state level and it helps with our state platform.. Its actually a thing of beauty and gets the most out of our candidates ..

[Renew Deal]

14. There is one extra wrinkle to NH

Independents can vote in either primary. So not only do you not know who will show up, but t you don't know which race will interest them.

[Peacetrain]

16. That is why I like caucus

because we are selecting who will be the Democratic candidate.. its not a general election.. but I think primaries are easier to poll.. even the republican caucus is easier to poll because they do the straw poll system.. on the Democratic side we try to take the best of all the candidates.. we have good people running

[Skwmom]

8. Good polls can identify vote count fraud. n/t

[Renew Deal]

13. Thanks for the tip

[Peacetrain]

17. Your Welcome!!!

I know it confuses people so much why polls nearly never match the caucus results..