2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders is the Most Popular Senator in America -- 83% approval rating!
75,000 voters surveyed. Sanders' approval smoked them all
http://morningconsult.com/2015/11/bernie-sanders-is-the-most-popular-senator-in-america/
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)let's nominate the lady with the worst likeability and honesty levels. . .what could go wrong?
berniepdx420
(1,784 posts)GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)wasn't always that way, lots of rural RWers in VT and NH, so 83% from all of them is all the more impressive.
karynnj
(59,504 posts)Howard Dean once spoke of how Bernie got support he could not get.
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
djean111
(14,255 posts)I envy Vermont, and am awaiting some expected comments about Vermont, shortly.
I have yet to mention the upcoming primary to anyone who has not said "anyone but Hillary". What I am afraid of is that people won't turn out for the primary, because either they figure Bernie will win or they just don't like Hillary's name on something, and then all of those people will either sit out the GE or vote for Trump if Hillary is the nominee.
Her fans keep repeating and repeating how Hillary has already been "vetted", how the dirty laundry has already been put out there - do they really feel that it had no effect? That it would have no effect on new younger voters? That's insane.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)It will be tough for a candidate who is "evolving" to match up with that, it affects trust and electability.
ChiciB1
(15,435 posts)longship
(40,416 posts)I blah-de-blah rest my blah blah-de-blah case.
An example:
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)The 75,000 is for all senators but don't let this pesky facts get in your way.
From your link;
The polls, conducted between May and November, asked a total of 76,569 registered voters whether they approve or disapprove of the job their states senators are doing. Voters were identified based on their Zip codes and other factors, and each states sample was weighted based on gender, age and race, using data from the U.S. Census Bureaus Current Population Survey.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)and MOE on this was 6.7% so in theory Sanders approval could be as low as 76%
The GEs show bigger numbers and there is no doubt they are loving the Bern:
Bernie Sanders (Independent) 171,638 (65.4%)
Richard Tarrant (R) 84,924 (32.3%)
Cris Ericson (Marijuana) 1,735 (0.6%)
Craig Hill (Green) 1,536 (0.5%)
Peter Moss (Anti-Bush) 1,518 (0.5%)
Peter Diamondstone (LU) 801 (0.3%)
United States Senate election in Vermont, 2012
Bernie Sanders (Independent) 207,848 (71%)
John MacGovern (R) 72,898 (24.9%)
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)It was 230 ppl from VT. It even says in the article that they are their own constitutes not national. So the 75,000 claim is complete bullshit. Not to mention the typo in your OP where you claim 750,000.
LiberalArkie
(15,719 posts)invalidates the poll because Vermonts sample size is not the same number of people as California's or New Yorks. Got it. Vermont just needs more more people before it can be polled.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)74,770 ppl had nothing to do with Sanders favorable #s.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)They detail the margin or error by state, as I said. To get a proportional sample from VT they only needed 151 people (since VT is 0.2% of the US population) but they did 230.
One more time to be clear -- they surveyed people in all 50 states asking what they thought of their own Senators. It wouldn't make very much sense to ask what they thought of Senators from ALL of the OTHER states since most people don't follow politics all that closely but it is hard to ignore your own Senators since there are only 2 from each state.
The article lays out their methodology very clearly.
karynnj
(59,504 posts)Than if the point estimate were 50.
I live in VT and he is well liked
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)That has nothing to do with what I said.
karynnj
(59,504 posts)The importance of sample size is that the confidence interval increases as sample size decreases. That is why sample size matters.
However, the confidence interval is also related to the point estimate and is greatest at 50 percent. Here, Sanders got a rating more than 10 percent higher than anyone else. It is very very likely that he really is better liked by his constituents than any other Senator or at minimum that he is among the most liked.
Obviously your gifts are not in statistics.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)in whether BS is a good senator & in reality it was only 200 in VT the basis becomes laughable.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)and btw what happened to the other 30 ppl ?
karynnj
(59,504 posts)It would be 20 times bigger than most polls quoted here. The sample size affects precision. You do not need a tight confidence interval here - unless you would consider it important to know that he was, say, over, 80 percent.. it is plenty precise enough to say he is among the most popular senators and very likely the most popular.
This says nothing about the Presidential election, but it does say VT likes him.
Loki
(3,825 posts)N/t.
Logical
(22,457 posts)Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Loki
(3,825 posts)I don't need your permission or your reasons for liking someone else. I have my own opinions, and I 'm not into telling you or anyone else who they should like. Do you have a problem with that?
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)to like anyone.
You posted a sentence fragment. I didn't understand what you were saying, so I asked a question for clarification, and posted her numbers as well, since they didn't seem to have any resemblance to your sentence fragment.
Had you simply posted 'I prefer Elixabeth Warren by a mile' your comment wouldn't have elicited any comment from me, because it would have been understandable, rather than cryptic.
You sound like you've got a bit of a chip on your shoulder.
Loki
(3,825 posts)Must have a lot of time on those well educated hands. Sorry most of my charting wasn't in narrative style
Logical
(22,457 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)is working for them or not.
Mitch McConnell got the lowest ratings from his own state.
karynnj
(59,504 posts)lobodons
(1,290 posts)The Senate and the Dems will need Bernie for their new majority next year!!
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)geardaddy
(24,931 posts)LOL
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Michigan Gary Peters D 37 27 2,774 +/- 1.9
Kentucky Mitch McConnell R 38 52 1,435 +/- 2.6
Wisconsin Ron Johnson R 38 35 1,385 +/- 2.6
Arizona Jeff Flake R 39 39 1,688 +/- 2.4
Kansas Jerry Moran R 40 31 684 +/- 3.7
Illinois Mark Kirk R 41 31 3,181 +/- 1.7
Kansas Pat Roberts R 41 41 684 +/- 3.7
Ohio Rob Portman R 41 24 3,259 +/- 1.7
North Carolina Thom Tillis R 41 35 2,512 +/- 2
Sad that two Dems top the 'worst' list, but the rest are vulnerable Repubs.
Response to GreatGazoo (Original post)
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