2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie's South Carolina Surrender
COLUMBIA, S.C. With just a few days left until the South Carolina Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders is all but writing the state off.
He hasnt said that, of course, but his schedule reflects it.
Sanders was in Massachusetts Monday night and Virginia Tuesday morning. While he attended a televised town hall in South Carolina Tuesday night and followed with an early-morning press conference, his itinerary Wednesday consisted of events in Kansas City, Missouri, and Tulsa, Oklahoma. After that, his schedule called for a trip to Ohio Thursday -- with stops in other March-voting states likely to be added, said an aide.
A candidates time is a campaigns most precious resource, so by spending so much of it somewhere other than South Carolina, the Sanders campaign is engaging in the cold calculus of primary politics making the tough decision to send the senator to the states where he figures to be the most competitive.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-sanders-south-carolina-schedule-219708#ixzz416AWaUkM
Even with the polls overwhelmingly against her in New Hampshire--HRC campaigned hard there.
cyberswede
(26,117 posts)I think it demonstrates fiscal responsibility to recognize where your money is better spent.
Hillary campaigned hard in NH because she needed the vote to be as close as possible after Iowa.
And she won the state last time, despite not being the favored winner. I'm sure she hoped for a repeat.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/22551718/ns/politics-decision_08/t/stunner-nh-clinton-defeats-obama/#.Vs3JIlKuzzM
CorporatistNation
(2,546 posts)SMART!!!
brooklynite
(94,598 posts)Last edited Wed Feb 24, 2016, 01:45 PM - Edit history (1)
...he should be able to save quite a bit of money.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Bernie can potentially save a TON of money!
Firebrand Gary
(5,044 posts)Punkingal
(9,522 posts)So fuck that shit.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Is Bernie supposed to focus exclusively on SC, then visit 12 states in 2 days?
brooklynite
(94,598 posts)He had nine months to build up strength and support in IA and NH. Now, the States get bigger (more expensive to campaign in) and come more quickly. Almost all of the large ones seem to be heading Hillary's way.
I don't criticize him for withdrawing from a State where he won't do well; I note it an another example of his apparent limited ability to find a path to the nomination.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)It's no big deal...you're harping on about nothing. All the time candidates will write off states where they're well ahead or behind, and focus their resources on states with a narrow gap. To claim a candidate should concentrate on a state where they're 20 points behind is just plain ignorance of how campaigns are run.
brooklynite
(94,598 posts)...she'll definitely "lose" Vermont, she may "lose" MN and Alaska...
...but she's actively campaigning in all of them, to get a share of the delegates. She's learned the lesson from 2008 about blowing off low-delegate States.
Response to brooklynite (Reply #34)
stopbush This message was self-deleted by its author.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)He is spreading his time among all of the states.
In my home state of Texas he has been building an organization for months....
You might be in for a surprise on Super Tuesday.....It might not be as super as you expect.
You might be surprised in SC as well.
brooklynite
(94,598 posts)I wouldn't focus on the margin because it's not going to be that close, Ben Tulchin, Sanders pollster, said Tuesday of Saturdays primary. But we're going to make it as close as we can. ... If we had three more months, we could close the gap more.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)that primary is on the 15th I think
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)It's a two-fer. Bernie is trying to win the election.
He is not running for President of South Carolina.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)I think there is a clear message there
DrDan
(20,411 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Trajan
(19,089 posts)In a state she was expected to win ....
Is it really wise to 'campaign hard' in a state you are expected to win, especially after your competitor has left the state? ...
She will have her glorious victory in South Carolina ... In fact, she should win every republican state in the south ... But even then, there will be other contests in other, more populous states where her success is seriously in question ...
So, get your jollies now ... Enjoy the Super Tuesday states, because we are preparing for the big crush after Super Tuesday ...
Go Bernie! ....
HillDawg
(198 posts)is more about narrative than anything else. She wants to run up the score, so she can get a good chunk of delegates and also steal the headlines. There is no Republican things until Super Tuesday, so her dominating SC would steal the headlines, and it would also continue to raise the question about support from the black community. Plus, she has the money so her spending money there really isn't going to hurt her.
Response to Trajan (Reply #4)
stopbush This message was self-deleted by its author.
hill2016
(1,772 posts)what were his mistakes in Nevada?
He seems to had a good ground operations set up
Response to hill2016 (Reply #42)
stopbush This message was self-deleted by its author.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)It will be looked at in the future as Bernie's Waterloo, I bet.
Really enjoy your insights and comments on the primaries.
I hope you will be breaking down South Carolina and the Super Tuesday contests as well.
Response to workinclasszero (Reply #43)
stopbush This message was self-deleted by its author.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Cool.
Well it sounds like you know your way around politics anyhow.
Response to workinclasszero (Reply #50)
stopbush This message was self-deleted by its author.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)That was Bernies one shot to take over the race and make the revolution a reality but he put all his eggs in the youth basket.
The most unreliable voters did what they always do except in rare cases like Obama in 2008.
They didn't show up at the voting booth/caucus. And his campaign is over, whether he or his supporters know it or not.
It will be become readily apparent real soon.
Hey you been around politics 40 years, so I still would like to hear your breakdown of SC and Super Tuesday.
Response to workinclasszero (Reply #55)
stopbush This message was self-deleted by its author.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)flor-de-jasmim
(2,125 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)It's a primary-winning, GE-losing strategy: pander to AA voters in Southern states that aren't in play in November. The problem with this strategy can be summed up in two words: "President Trump."
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)will die it's well deserved death.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)The weathervane squeaks.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)mhatrw
(10,786 posts)Harry Reid was taking care of Nevada for her and she already had South Carolina won.
And the is more of the puerile "analysis" our corporate media loves. All about the horse race and nothing about the ideas or the records of the horses or how these ideas and records would affect the people the "horses" are supposedly racing for.
Response to mhatrw (Reply #9)
stopbush This message was self-deleted by its author.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Let's be honest. He's going to lose in SC< probably by a large margin. OTOH, he does have a good chance to win MA. If he wants to have a narrative of viability, he needs wins on Tuesday.
I suspect that he knows the best he can do in SC is to try and get it closer. Now he still gets proportional delegates, so even losing he gets delegates, but he needs to win the narrative. And to do that, he needs some W's on Tuesday. At least 4.
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)A smart person would understand what this reflects
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Yet you expect him to be elected on a wave...
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)that is just the way it is
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)There has been almost nothing predictable in this election so far... I'd be careful calling states swing states anymore.
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)???
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)We don't know who the nominees are... How can we possibly know?
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)we are done - SC for Hillary - take a bite of reality
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Yup, didn't say that.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)BeyondGeography
(39,374 posts)See, "Obama, Barack, 2008 Presidential Primary," for exactly why.
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)Want to make a bet - I will give you a three for
Alabama - Mississippi - South Carolina
1 to 3
Hillary will win none of these in the general
She wins even one you get 3
She wins none I get 1
BeyondGeography
(39,374 posts)Without winning the South and a host of other deep red states that he didn't contest in the general, he never would have been the nominee. His dependence on those states had nothing to do with his ability to win in Nov.
You have no point of value to make here.
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)no
Renew Deal
(81,861 posts)Obama is Blue. Hillary is green.
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)And today politico has a whole article about it. Marching orders maybe?
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)I'm a volunteer for Sanders, and we're still very active in all the states listed as him "surrendering". Its nothing but a bullshit attempt at voter suppression.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)What a frivilous line.
You want to know what is voter supression?
- Caucuses
- Voter ID Laws
- Registration Requirements
... Etc.
Not an article which says Sanders is spending less money in certain states. You assertion is pure hyperbole, and what good is a revolution if it can be suppressed by this article.
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)And its not just one article, its many small things that add up to surpress the vote overall.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)But hey nothing like a little hyperbole for lunch.
brooklynite
(94,598 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)brooklynite
(94,598 posts)Yes, we ALL get a private text message on our Clinton-issued smartphones directing us what to post each day on an anonymous blogsite. Because, as DU goes.....
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)the winner of all primaries and elections in the US...amirite?
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)hoosierlib
(710 posts)When things got tight in NV, she called on Harry Reid and James Clyburn and John Lewis to shore up SC.
Bernie's campaign is based on the grassroots and time, money and resources are finite.
Unlike HRC, he doesn't have union leaders or a Super PAC to call on for reinforcements...
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Bernie doesn't have many friends in the party because he slammed it for decades and refused to lift a finger for democrats ever.
Oh wait....until a few months ago.
Who knew that would ever come back and bite him in the ass eh?
hoosierlib
(710 posts)You know he caucused for them in Congress and the Senate and the he has supportrd and endorsed numerous candidates nationally.
His main critque is that elements of the Democratic political establishment are a) too cozy with business and b) too hawkish...
I agree with him on both and will continue to support him and other candidates that share his beliefs...
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Which can help her win elections?
Umm...
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Alfresco
(1,698 posts)ladjf
(17,320 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)BernieforPres2016
(3,017 posts)I was at Bernie's campaign rally in Greenville, SC on Sunday night, less than 72 hours ago. So let's start the story on Monday. South Carolina is followed closely by how many states on Super Tuesday, 14? Bernie would have to be an idiot to campaign exclusively in South Carolina right up to the primary with all the primaries that are right behind it.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)BernieforPres2016
(3,017 posts)Kansas City is on the state line of Missouri and Kansas. The Kansas caucuses are on 3/5.
Do you Clintonistas have any new talking points now after Bernie was in SC again today?
Maedhros
(10,007 posts)He, and his supporters, will fight and claw and scrape to beat Hillary until the convention. We don't want a corporate war hawk as President.
BainsBane
(53,035 posts)The rest through March 8 (as far as I checked) all go to Clinton. Except for Mass (61% Clinton to 39 Sanders), the rest are all 98 or 99 % for Clinton to win.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/