2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum(Bill) Clinton lost and lost and lost - How candidates won the nomination
Here is a chart from an article in WaPo today. The article is about Rubio's issues in not winning.
I link it here because I find it odd that a current media shill meme is that Hillary has the nomination locked up.
Here is hard data on how long each of the nominations took to "lock up" from Bill Clinton onward.
By comparison, Bernie is doing just fine, thank you.
Keep up the good work, all.
"There were some quick wins: Al Gore and Bob Dole. There were a few slogs, too, including Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. But notice, too, Bill Clinton.
Clinton lost and lost and lost, over and over. He was similarly in a splintered field, which took a long time to work itself out. "
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/24/marco-rubio-keeps-losing-so-did-bill-clinton/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_rubio-915am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Bump, Washington Post
djean111
(14,255 posts)nomination locked up. "
It is not odd - the corporatists want to dampen enthusiasm for Bernie.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)Time tends to be on their side.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Is that every year has it's own trajectory based on a number of factors. We can't really look to history as an accurate guide to determine where this race is.
I think the best view of this race is that it's tied as we stand now, and we're headed into a stretch that looks very favorable to Hillary. It's apparent that Bernie needed to win in NV to keep his momentum going into Super Tuesday. The question now is where the race will stand when the race turns more favorable to him. Will he still have a realistic shot, mathematically speaking? It really doesn't look like it.
Jarqui
(10,126 posts)One way depends on if/how they thin the field. If it was just Rubio vs Trump alone, I think Rubio would win.
The other way is the let the other candidates stay in and take as many delegates as they can to keep Trump from getting what he needs to clinch. Then they come together at the convention for Rubio.
I think that may be bad news for Dems because Rubio continues to poll well in match ups against Clinton and Sanders.
dsc
(52,162 posts)Harkin won Iowa, Tsongas won New Hampshire, Brown won Maine, and Kerrey won South Dakota. That is a way different position than either Bernie or Rubio find themselves in now. Rubio hasn't won yet either but Trump has won three with Cruz winning one. Cruz seems to be in deep trouble but Trump is far from it. Bernie is in better position than that right now but unless he does better in March than projections seem to be suggesting he will not be for long.