2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum(not so) Super Tuesday projections
There have been several threads predicting Bernie's doom after Super Tuesday. Because of the vastly smaller number of states voting on March 1 this year, Super Tuesday is not nearly as significant and will certainly not mark the end of Bernie's campaign - not even close.
Here's my projections based on the best current polls I could find:
Feb 27
South Carolina (Clinton +26%): Clinton 34, Sanders 19
March 1
Alabama (Clinton +28%): Clinton 34, Sanders 19
American Samoa (No poll): Clinton 3, Sanders 3
Arkansas (Clinton +25%): Clinton 20, Sanders 12
Colorado (Sanders +6%): Clinton 30, Sanders 36
Georgia (Clinton +40%): Clinton 73, Sanders 29
Massachusetts (Sanders +3%): Clinton 43, Sanders 48
Minnesota (Clinton +3%): Clinton 39, Sanders 38
Oklahoma (Clinton +3%): Clinton 19, Sanders 19
Tennessee (Clinton +25%): Clinton 42, Sanders 25
Texas (Clinton +18%): Clinton 132, Sanders 90
Vermont (Sanders +76%): Clinton 1, Sanders 15
Virginia (Clinton +20%): Clinton 58, Sanders 37
There's a lot of assumptions in these numbers, but they should be at least in the ballpark.
This leaves the totals at 580 Clinton, 441 Sanders. At this point Sanders would need to win 52% of the remaining pledged delegates to beat Clinton in pledged delegates.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)You got one thing right.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)6chars
(3,967 posts)could be
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Flip the numbers in Georgia so we get the biggest swing possible. It's still the case that neither candidate has lost.
6chars
(3,967 posts)huge margin for Clinton in Georgia for a state that is not one of the giants - flip it and the post Super Tuesday numbers are much more surmountable for Bernie. But I expect Hillary will do well in Georgia.
Kittycat
(10,493 posts)How the battleground/swing states play out. Particularly since it might give us all an early indication how independent voters may swing in the GE.
Eta: on the Republican side to Trump
On the Dem side to Sanders or Clinton.
demwing
(16,916 posts)Flying Squirrel
(3,041 posts)But it's probably gonna be somewhere between our two predictions.
EmperorHasNoClothes
(4,797 posts)A 5% margin of error would put my numbers in the range 534 Clinton/487 Sanders to 626 Clinton/395 Sanders.
I'm cautiously optimistic that Sanders voters are underrepresented in the polls.
jillan
(39,451 posts)You cannot even guess what % of votes each candidate will get.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)All the OP did was take the number of delegates and forecast the percentages of the vote. I did the same below.
jillan
(39,451 posts)SheenaR
(2,052 posts)Nor did they imply that
EmperorHasNoClothes
(4,797 posts)My numbers show the delegates broken up proportionally based on the current poll numbers, not winner take all. The same technique predicted delegate allocation within 6% in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
jillan
(39,451 posts)SheenaR
(2,052 posts)SC- Clinton 32-20
AL- Clinton 33-19
AS- Clinton 4-2
AR- Clinton 19-13
CO- Sanders 36-30
GA- Clinton 69-33
MA- Sanders 48-43
MN- Sanders 40-37
OK- Tie 19-19
TN- Clinton 38-29
TX- Clinton 120-102
VT- Sanders 16-0
VA- Clinton 52-43
Pledged to this point- Clinton 548 Sanders 471
I'm sure I'll be way off. Who the heck knows.
Flying Squirrel
(3,041 posts)I said 550-471, but that was before Nevada and I thought it would be an 18-17 split there.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)That's awesome
I'd be ok with these results but hoping for better.
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)that anyone would be calling for an end to the primary and the foreclosure of democracy in New York, California, and 34 other states!
What a fix is arranged in this system. And I mean any combination would be skewed in some fashion. A real democracy would be done to the same standard (all primaries) and in a fashion that allows time for unknowns to build but doesn't concentrate the primaries regionally like this.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)The MSM will have it as 1017-457 or something
Kittycat
(10,493 posts)Flying Squirrel
(3,041 posts)Kentonio
(4,377 posts)Once Super Tuesday is done, the roadmap looks considerably brighter for him.
Response to Kentonio (Reply #23)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)But he's a point up in Ohio in the latest poll and we still have states like Cali and NY to come which have huge delegate counts and where he will hand her ass to her.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I.e. Pollster, RCP and 538 considered it a non-entity.
In Ohio, Silver predicts a Clinton win at 96% and Michigan at 98%. Currently, Sanders is down over 20 in NY.
Sanders won't be out after Super Tuesday, but he will have a gap that is going to be next to impossible, at best, to try and make up by the time March 15 rolls around.