Sun Feb 28, 2016, 01:17 PM
17 replies, 2051 views
Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
 17 replies |
Author | Time | Post |
 Polls and turnouts - was the turn out in South Carolina depressed because (Original post) |
hedgehog | Feb 2016 | OP |
| litlbilly | Feb 2016 | #1 | |
| Lucinda | Feb 2016 | #2 | |
| msongs | Feb 2016 | #3 | |
| onenote | Feb 2016 | #6 | |
| litlbilly | Feb 2016 | #8 | |
| Codeine | Feb 2016 | #10 | |
| onenote | Feb 2016 | #17 | |
| MrMickeysMom | Feb 2016 | #9 | |
| litlbilly | Feb 2016 | #12 | |
| MrMickeysMom | Feb 2016 | #14 | |
| litlbilly | Feb 2016 | #15 | |
| DemocratSinceBirth | Feb 2016 | #4 | |
| MrMickeysMom | Feb 2016 | #11 | |
| basselope | Feb 2016 | #13 | |
| DemocratSinceBirth | Feb 2016 | #16 | |
| firebrand80 | Feb 2016 | #5 | |
| RunInCircles | Feb 2016 | #7 |
Response to litlbilly (Reply #1)
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 01:58 PM
msongs (65,203 posts)
3. your guy convinced 25% of the voter to choose HIM. that should scare the shit out of bernie lol nt
Response to litlbilly (Reply #1)
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 02:09 PM
onenote (39,030 posts)
6. Do you have evidence regarding the relative levels of social media by state?
Response to onenote (Reply #6)
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 02:25 PM
Codeine (25,586 posts)
10. When this poster is questioned and can't answer
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he just puts you on Ignore.
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Response to Codeine (Reply #10)
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 04:31 PM
onenote (39,030 posts)
17. Odd. I really was wondering if there is such information.
Response to hedgehog (Original post)
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 02:03 PM
DemocratSinceBirth (98,631 posts)
4. My frame...
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #4)
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 02:25 PM
11. I don't know that it would be so much "widespread dissatisfaction with her", so much as...
Response to basselope (Reply #13)
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 02:47 PM
DemocratSinceBirth (98,631 posts)
16. Respectfully, your logic is flawed, and perhaps irretrievably so.
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Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf .
 Studies of prediction market accuracy for election forecasting commonly compare the daily market forecasts to results from polls published the same day. These studies generally find that prediction markets yield more accurate forecasts than single polls. https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner The predictions markets suggest she has a 62% chance of being the next president. That's substantially than her closest competitor. The efficacy of polls nine months out in predicting a general election winner is essentially null: Trial-heat polls, hereafter simply referred to as polls, ask respondents for whom they
intend to vote if the election were held today. That is, polls do not provide predictions; they provide snapshots of public opinion at a certain point in time. However, this is not how the media commonly treat polls. Polling results are routinely interpreted as forecasts of what will happen on Election Day (Hillygus 2011). This can result in poor predictions, in particular if the election is still far away, because public opinion can be difficult to measure and fragile over the course of a campaign. However, researchers found ways to deal with these problems and to increase the accuracy of poll-based predictions https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf |
Response to hedgehog (Original post)
Sun Feb 28, 2016, 02:10 PM
7. I am not sure that the average person is acquainted with proportional delegates
