ARG polls NH Romney +4; FL Romney +3

[TexasCPA]

9 point swing toward Romney in NH. 8 point swing toward Romney in FL



http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[center rising]

1. It'll swing back when the results of the VP debate sink in.

[oswaldactedalone]

13. That's what was said about the

unemployment figures. Didn't happen. Biden set the stage and brought out the issues that Obama mistakenly ignored. Obama has to close the deal in the next two debates. He MUST point out Robme's flip-flopping, etch a sketch, let the auto industry go bankrupt, changing scripts about abortion, send them to the ER self.

[FBaggins]

20. Many more people watched the debate than paid attention to unemployment figures.

Having said that... VP debates rarely make all that much difference. A "win" here (which this pretty clearly was), just needs to stop the bleeding until the president can get back in the ring against dramatically lowered expectations.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

2. I think it's safe to classify them now as a GOP pollster

[regnaD kciN]

29. While it's too easy to say that about any poll you don't like...

...it does seem like they've released a ton of polls lately after being silent most of the year -- and pretty much every one of them has shown a Republican skew as compared to equivalent polls from pollsters like Marist or Quinnipac.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

38. They were exceptionally poor in 2010

I believe they were ranked No. 26 out of 30 in accuracy.

I don't cherry pick polls, but they have consistently shown poor results for Obama -- dating back to the 2008 primaries -- that calls into question their competency.

So there's either a GOP lean, or they've lost their fastball as a firm, like Zogby.

[DarthDem]

3. Absolute Garbage

There's no way Mittbot is leading in New Hampshire. Florida is probably, and always has been, a tossup. More Rethuglican narrative-setting attempts, just like Scotty Razz's polls.

[Maximumnegro]

18. Yep they are trying to maintain a sense of momentum

to push early voting and maintain the narrative. Romney is desperate for FL.

[neverland_pirate]

4. Why did you post these polls?

What are your intentions? Are you a Democrat?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. You Are A Clever One (Reprise)

Why don't you go back to Free Republic and raise the intelligence of both boards.

[DarthDem]

7. Probably the Same as Yours

Since you posted the Razz poll of Florida.

[WI_DEM]

10. Uh-huh

[Jennicut]

5. That NH poll is ridiculous. Obama winning women by 1%. Sure ARG.

And even Rasmussen had NH tied a few days ago. ARG should have an R next to them on RCP like PPP has a D next to them.

Florida is a clear tossup.

[Maximumnegro]

14. Notice a trend? Romney NEEDS Florida. They are pushing

these leads to get early votes into Florida because without Florida he can't even pay price of admission. This is a push
to get those votes in. All of a sudden these GOP pollsters are focused on Florida, starting with the Suffolk comment. They HAVE to make FL viable just to stay in the game.

[hrmjustin]

26. I noticed it too.

[HockeyMom]

8. Romney running non-stop ads in Florida

Obama, and AARP, need to up the Medicare and Social Security issues. Romney is running ads targeting women on jobs, with a Queen Ann look alike "small business owner".

[Maximumnegro]

15. Shows that they are desperate

FL is Romney's price of admission just to stay in the race. They are trying to push the early votes and dampen Dems with the polls. All this GOP pollster action and comments re FL is a little too coincidental. Suffolk gave the dog whistle...

[TroyD]

25. 'Shows that they are desperate'

I'm not sure about that.

It looks pretty undeniable that Romney got a big bump from his debate. Let's not become like the GOP and start claiming all the polls are made up. Nate Silver has moved Florida towards Romney. Until last week it was Leaning Obama. So we do appear to be losing it now.

Having said that, as I said above, I think ARG has a history of being Republican-leaning and even had low numbers for Obama last month when he was doing well.

And haven't they oversampled Republicans in New Hampshire?

But regardless, we need to be aware that Democratic pollsters are slow to counter the Republican pollsters. Gravis, Rasmussen & ARG have all been very fast out of the gate in getting their state polls out, and unfortunately those are the polls which are plastered in red all over RCP right now.

[Maximumnegro]

31. Who's denying a bump? Are you able to see how narratives form?

Did you not catch the part of the debate last night where Ryan brought up a car crash knowing full well Biden lost his family in one? Are you not able to see exactly what kind of people we're dealing with here? Sorry but you can have both a bump and bullsh*t, and we are dealing with a lot of the latter. And please tell me where I say polls are made up while you're at it or even inference that. I'll wait.

If you don't have any chamomile, try valerian root.

[Shivering Jemmy]

9. Wrong

At least on NH

[Lord_Maculus]

11. I see no way that Romney is up in NH

And certainly not up more in NH than he is in Florida. Those swings are a bit much, even for a GOP pollster and even after a listless debate from Obama.

In the end I predict that NH will be an Obama win by 5-6 points, at the least, though their notorious "independent" streak worries me a bit. Florida is one of the true toss ups of this election (along with Virginia and Colorado) that I would not be surprised if they went either way. Most other swing states at the very least either lean Obama (Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Nevada) or lean Romney (North Carolina). That's the sense I get from all the averages of those states, at least. I think it's very possible the popular vote could end up 49-49, and yet Obama wins by a comfortable amount in the Electoral College due to tight wins in many of the swing states, blowouts in the red states, and closer than expected finishes in the blue states. I expect the populist messages delivered by the likes of Clinton, Biden, and First Lady Michelle Obama will help President Obama hold on to the rust belt states, and thus get re-elected. To be safe, though I'd love to see one huge closing rally in the final week with both Presidents Clinton and Obama on the same stage together in Ohio, putting a positive impression for voters right before election day.

[woolldog]

17. I don't see why Romney couldn't be winning NH

Even the poll that has Obama up +6 there, was partly taken before the debate. And even so there was a 8 point swing in that poll.

I think it's likely Romney is ahead in NH now.

[Maximumnegro]

19. That's just your opinion which is independent

of the GOP polling and just as meaningful. Plouffe said the Mason Dixon poll was 'impossible', and they supposedly have a decent if GOP reputation. So if they're FOS then I wouldn't even give a second thought to anything Ras or ARG says, GOOD OR BAD.

And notice none of these GOP pollsters are showing OH, or CO, or NV, VA, or IA, or... if Romney really was surging why isn't it happening in those states?

[woolldog]

21. It is happening in those states

too.

But demographics are different in every state, so his surge is more significant in some states than others. NH electorate is very fickle and independent and white.

[Maximumnegro]

23. and still just your hunch which is

based on nothing. I'm just saying your giving credence just because of your own personal poll-meter, not because of any substantive data. Up in NH and up in FL by those numbers means a surge. Ras also has a tracking poll showing same numbers as yesterday. So how can Romney be surging in 2 states he was down or tied but still be tied in national AND not have the same big trend in other states.

[woolldog]

27. ....

WMUR poll taken 9/27-9/30 has Obama +15 in NH
WMUR poll taken 9/30-10/6 has Obama +6 in NH

That's a 9 point swing. And most of the second poll was taken before the first debate, so it's likely even larger.

ARG poll had Obama +5 before the debate
ARG poll has Romney +4 after the debate

That's also a 9 point swing.

So I think it's clear the debate caused some movement in NH.

Like you, I don't really trust ARG. But it's clear there's been a big swing in NH.

I'd like to see a new Quinipiac, WMUR, Marist poll to get a better idea where the race is. I'm just sayin Romney +4 doesn't seem so impossible....

[TroyD]

12. There's no doubt that ARG is Republican-leaning

We know that from their polling history.

Not sure what is going on in Florida, but it is certainly possible that Obama's lead there has been lost since even Nate Silver shows the state now trending Romney after trending Obama for most of the fall.

But Nate still has Obama winning New Hampshire, as do other polls, and even an article at POLITICO quotes a Republican insider who says NH is leaning Obama.

BUT it's obvious the first debate was a game changer. It gave Romney a big bump. And it shows you can't come across too casual when it comes to a debate. Many Obama supporters are admitting that Biden showed what Obama should have done.

Obama better use Biden as his debate partner from now on instead of Kerry!

[Maximumnegro]

22. Wrong again, Troy. Biden debate showed the base dropped the ball

on Obama. Biden tore the roof off and the overall media narrative started with 'meh, draw', 'tie'. Even the CBS poll was good but not great. The difference is YOU got the red meat you craved and apparently can't vote without so YOU got fired up enough to help push back against the narrative so now you have individual pundits popping up here and there saying yeah he did good. So if this is the best Biden could get out of the mainstream media coverage, please tell me in what magic universe Obama could have 'won'. Oh please tell 'cause I'd love to know. Fact is Obama would have AT BEST gotten the same treatment. The difference is last week YOU bought into the narrative IMMEDIATELY and lost your frickin' mind, which sealed the narrative within MINUTES. The BASE failed last week. Now the base finally got what they wanted. Even TPM is pointing that out. Has NOTHING to do with 'if only Obama won the debate' last week, because he wouldn't have and Romney's base would STILL be energized by his performance.

Sick of pointing this stuff out that's right in front of people's faces. Accountability goes both ways.

[NYC Liberal]

28. Democrats here and on TV spent the entire night following the debate trashing Obama,

instead of fighting back and trying to change the narrative from "Romney won, Obama lost" to "Romney lied, Obama told the truth". You're exactly right: Obama was never going to be declared the winner; at best the media would have been declared it a draw if Obama had done so well they couldn't credibly spin a Romney win. I'm more pissed at the Dems on TV who were actually heard by undecided and independent voters that might have been influenced by the post-debate coverage. Those voters aren't at DU but they are watching CNN and MSNBC, and our spokespeople and public faces of the party should have known better. Even if they thought Obama did lose, they should have rejected the win/lose narrative and focused on the more relevant issue of Romney lies. If they felt Obama didn't do enough to counter the bullshit, then they should have stepped up right away.

[woolldog]

33. a draw would've been perfectly good.

The problem is Obama was playing for a draw and ended up getting beat badly.

Reminds me of football teams who play not to lose. guess what often happens? They lose.

[NYC Liberal]

36. Except that Democrats bought right into the media narrative.

Even if Democrats thought Obama lost, they should not have been out there publicly trashing him. They should have rejected the entire "win/lose" narrative and focused on the fact that Romney lied and Obama told the truth. The win/lose narrative is bullshit. So Romney "wins" because he's aggressive, even though he was lying the entire time? Total nonsense, and Democrats on TV should have been calling Romney, the Republicans, and the media out on it. If Obama dug himself into a hole with the debate strategy, then there was no reason or excuse for Dems to have grabbed shovels and kept digging.

[Raven]

16. Bullshit! No way here in NH. No Way. n/t

[Blaukraut]

24. NH internals show 29% Dem, 35% Rep, 36% Ind.

Their last poll had 30% Dem, 30% Rep, 40% Ind. That would explain the huge swing.

[Lint Head]

30. The Arghhhh! poll says there is a 98% chance the door will hit Romney in the ass when he leaves.

[MjolnirTime]

32. Full on swing towards troll in this thread.

[Alekei_Firebird]

34. UNF and Marist/WSJ/NBC show Obama ahead

Florida was a tough state to begin with. Obama only won it by 2% in 2008, and there was little reason to believe that he'd have it any easier this year.

[brush]

35. Hah!

Don't believe it for a second, DU. Who funds them? Karl Rove's group?

[Caretha]

37. Everything & more than you ever wanted to know

regarding the phoney ARG pollster. Not only is he a phoney, looks like good old Dick Bennett, aka LAFELL O Bennett is a shyster & a crook too. His poll record & methodology is pitiful.

Read here at this link:


http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com/2007/12/problem-with-american-research-group.html

Btw, you may not have any ability to discern crapola & malarky, but the majority at DU can and do.

[DFW]

39. And just who is ARG that their polling deserves a post on DU?

http://ajacksonian.blogspot.de/2007/12/problem-with-american-research-group.html

I'll leave it up to the mods to be the deciders.