The Irrefutable Analytics on Why it Will Be Clinton Vs. Trump After Today

[tgards79]

A must read on Super Tuesday projections and beyond...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/02/super-tuesday-predictions-and-more-why.html

[Hortensis]

1. Thanks for the article. I prefer less absolute

projections, but it's hard to believe it won't be true in the end.

A shout out to American Samoa! 55,000 people. It's so unfortunate that, seemingly, no one has paid to poll their preferences, but I guess their vote will be a form of poll.

[tgards79]

2. Interesting

I always thought Nate Silver lost people when he went to probabilities instead of absolute projections. Thanks for your perspective!

And yes, a shout out to American Samoa is in order!

[Hortensis]

3. Did he? I wouldn't be surprised,

having read more of a few of the otoh's. Otoh, this is such a weird election, with so many giant forces tearing old patterns apart...

[tgards79]

4. Yes but BTRTN has called every race accurately...

...go and check yourself! http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/02/super-tuesday-predictions-and-more-why.html

[Hortensis]

5. In projections nothing counts for more than that. :)

The GOP race is even more interesting to me. The Donald is going to mostly run the board? WHAT will the GOP do!

[tgards79]

6. You mean, after they stop sobbing?

It is a real issue. I suspect several vulnerable GOP Senators (Kirk, Toomey, etc.) may have to break with Trump. I cant wait to see that! They could lose the Senate...and even the House!

[Hortensis]

7. Yes. Fascinating, and knock wood.

Political scientists must be having a great time. Especially new ones without reputations to defend.

[tgards79]

8. Ha ha true enough!

We prediction people have to put ours out there every day! 😀

[Hortensis]

9. Ah, your predictions aren't as amateurish as mine?

I noticed you thought even the House could conceivably be in play. I've heard that as an extremely unlikely possibility before, and I was wondering what you were thinking.

[ieoeja]

10. By their projections for Super Tuesday, Bernie would have to win 54% of the remaining delegates.

By an interesting coincidence in 2008 Obama won 54% of the delegates after Super Tuesday.

Meaning this was a whole lot easier to refute than you thought it was.


[font size=1]Note: your site concluded 58% by counting unpledged Delegates as Pledged Delegates. I don't have the pre-Super Tuesday unpledged delegate counts for 2008. But a horde of them switched sides then which makes counting them as "pledged" at this point a waste of time.[/font]

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. She is at 98% at Predictwise.

http://predictwise.com/

I follow odds for boxing, NBA, NFL, MLB, et cetera.... Those odds are incredible.