Obama trails three of four Republican candidates in latest Iowa Poll

[DavidDvorkin]

President Barack Obama trails three of the four Republican candidates in head-to-head match-ups if the election were held today, according to a new Iowa Poll.

The Republican with the biggest lead: Ron Paul, who would defeat Obama by 7 percentage points, 49 percent to 42 percent. Rick Santorum, winner of the 2012 Iowa caucuses, leads Obama 48 percent to 44 percent. Mitt Romney, edged in the caucuses by Santorum, leads Obama 46 percent to 44 percent.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120218/NEWS09/120218015/Obama-trails-three-four-Republican-candidates-latest-Iowa-Poll

This is unsettling.

[MarianJack]

1. Unsettling,...

...but it won't last.

PEACE!

[DavidDvorkin]

4. Let's hope not.

[Lil Missy]

2. Bullshit.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. I think the Des Moines Register poll is considered reliable.

[grantcart]

9. Normally it is but this is an outlier. Details given below

Obama is up on every candidate in every other poll.

Sometimes it happens.

I am surprised that they published it.

The fact that it put Paul as the strongest GE candidate was also a clue.

[DavidDvorkin]

11. As I said below, this is for Iowa, not nationwide.

[peacebird]

3. so Iowans are batshit crazy and voting against their best interests?

[DavidDvorkin]

6. It's happened before

Throughout the country.

[annabanana]

52. There's an Iowa kind of special

chip on the shoulder attitude we've never been without that we recall.

We can be cold As our falling thermometers in December
If you ask about our weather in July.
And we're so by God stubborn We could stand touchin' noses
For a week at a time And never see eye-to-eye.

[Rosco T.]

7. Remember what IOWA stands for...

Idiots
Out
Wandering
Around

(hear that during caucus coverage, not mine!)

[grantcart]

8. Outlier - all other polls are showing Obama up by a lot

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html


Romney

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Santorum

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_santorum_vs_obama-2912.html


Paul

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_paul_vs_obama-1750.html

[DavidDvorkin]

10. Those are all nationwide numbers

The one I quoted is specifically for Iowa.

[grantcart]

13. You are right, I over clicked.

[aaaaaa5a]

12. Wow! That's the first bad number we have had in a while.

Question?


Does it make any sense that Ron Paul is the strongest candidate? Or that Romney is the weakest?


Remember, this is the state where the GOP spent a year visiting every county, city, town and local diner, bashing Obama. That is bound to have an impact. My bet is over the next few months Iowa will bounce back to the national trend lines which are all currently favoring the President.


Think about it. Is the President seriously going to carry a place like Virginia and lose in Iowa? Probably not. Especially if such a loss is based on a poll that has Ron Paul as the strongest GOP candidate in the state.

[DavidDvorkin]

14. Good points

I wouldn't be comfortable living in Iowa, but it's not in general a truly wacky state.

[elleng]

19. Brother and family live there,

I know some others there, too, and not at all wacky, imo. Plan to visit next month, but I'm not keen on living there either; prefer the green East Coast!

[DavidDvorkin]

22. It's a pretty state, and it seems very green by my standards

But I live in Denver. I've been in Des Moines in the summer, and the heat and humidity were dreadful.

[elleng]

30. Yes, heat and humidity there pretty bad that part of the country I recall,

particularly St. Louis in summer;h orrendous!

Hoping to visit high school classmates in Denver after visiting family in Iowa next month. Lived in Denver 2/3 year 30? years ago. Enjoyed the climate VERY much!

[Thrill]

15. So Ron Paul is the strongest Repuke candidate

But couldn't even finish third in the primary there? That's weird

[emulatorloo]

49. The whole poll reads like Porno for Fox Viewers

Lots of crazy stuff in it.

[ForgoTheConsequence]

16. Obama will win Iowa.

I'm not even worried about it.

[grantcart]

17. here is an interesting discussion of the poll

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=printpage;topic=149182.0

I think that the person who said

"crosstabs or this isn't real" is a good idea.

[renie408]

18. Does this mean it is time to get CONCERNED? I just want to make sure I am appropriately

worried at all times. I mean, the election is only 9 and a half months away. You can never start worrying too soon.

[PSPS]

24. LOL

[MineralMan]

39. +100

Spreading FUD is a popular sport on DU.

[treestar]

45. +200

Exactly!

[napoleon_in_rags]

20. I just love seeing Paul winning these things.

Its a simple and clear message, stop invading other countries, restore civil liberties. So many people don't agree with the full Ron Paul message, but these two things give him such an incredible bump, its worth paying attention to.

[ForgoTheConsequence]

21. Oh yeah.

Restore civil liberties, but screw civil rights.

[napoleon_in_rags]

25. Yes, I confess. The man is a detestable peace Nazi.

If left to his dark ways, the US would abstain from attacking more countries that didn't attack us but deserve to be attacked, and the whole affair would be horribly homophobic and racist, lacking in the perfect moral values that led to the spraying of all arab children in Fallujah with white phosphorus to subdue them, and so many other things.

Look guy, I understand a legit disagreement with Paul's policies, and in fact I agree... But when when your standing stretched out like Leonardo DiCaprio on the front of Titanic celebrating almost limitless war crimes against citizens in the country we invaded for WMDs they didn't have in the name of the USA, a little introspection is due. America had some capital after 9/11, and its all been burned. The wars against countries that didn't attack us is INSEPARABLE from the attack on civil liberties, which are civil rights. We are a free people, and won't be cowed.

[xiamiam]

31. agreed..and I'm not alone...nt

[napoleon_in_rags]

32. No one in the world is alone friend.

My prayers are with Israel. I see these Neocons laying that nation's security on the gambling table, trusting in their past failed policies (like Iraq war) to create peace. But really, its in brotherhood that peace lies. Its in communication between peers. I dream of the time when Iran and Israel will compete for science achievements, with threats of doom off the table. That to me is the prime promise of us peaceniks, right and left. A world where war has left the room and is off the table.

[woo me with science]

37. Hear hear. nt

[Ikonoklast]

35. I bet you do.

[napoleon_in_rags]

43. Aginst Iran War.

Pro-peace. Think neocon policies are bad for us, bad for Israel, bad for everybody. That's it. If you think I'm a republican, let me know and I will provide a long list of things "we" are wrong about.

[Ikonoklast]

46. I don't think you are a Republican.

I do think you are being simplistic about Ron Paul.

If Paul was ever president of this nation he would go to war when the Republicans told him to; he is, after all, nothing more than a Republican dressed in a cheap Libertarian suit, and not the other way around.

[napoleon_in_rags]

53. You are probably right.

And even if he did mean the best, huge pressures seem to often push leaders around in DC. But I do see his support as a sign of the end of the right wing madness of wanting perpetual war and small government. Cutting taxes and starting wars puts this country in peril that its not in if it just does one or the others.

[muriel_volestrangler]

36. It doesn't look like that's what Iowans are worried about, though

When asked about things Obama is doing, they replied (sorry for the lack of formatting - DU3 doesn't seem to support it)

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
(Follow with Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing: (Rotate B through F.)
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
His job as president 46 48 6
With the economy 38 58 4
With health care 36 58 6
With relations with other countries 52 41 7
With the budget deficit 33 61 6
With his handling of the war in Afghanistan 56 36 8

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/assets/pdf/D2185311218.PDF

So they like the way he handles relations with other countries, and the war in Afghanistan; it's the economy, health care, and the budget deficit where they don't like what he's done. Most of that Ron Paul support comes from people who don't give a toss about invading other countries.

[NYC Liberal]

47. Ron Paul is one of the biggest enemies of civil liberties there is.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. LOL...sorry, but LOL

[HuskiesHowls]

26. 611 people were asked election questions....

And they called a total of 800 people.

That is a rather small percentage of the voters in Iowa...even though we are not quite the most populous state.

[former9thward]

51. For one state that is a big number.

For national polls they usually ask about 1500 people which is an average of 30 persons per state.

[Renew Deal]

27. I don't buy this for one second

Ron Paul is the strongest candidate against Obama and Obama is losing Iowa? I don't buy it.

[DCBob]

34. Totally agree. This poll is suspect.

Iowa could be a tough state for the President but these numbers make no sense at all.

[geek tragedy]

28. Let's hope the Republicans respond by nominating Paul or Santorum. n/t

[SaintPete]

29. The last poll taken in Iowa (12/2011) showed Obama up by 7 points, with an MOE of only +-2.5%

This poll has a MOE of +-4%.

Does ANYBODY really believe that Romney has fallen against all his Republican contenders, but has risen against Obama? Really? with employment down, and the economy improving?

Iowa has gone blue in 5 of the last 6 elections.

By the end of next November, we'll all be saying "Iowa has gone blue in 6 of the last 7 elections."

[Angry Dragon]

33. There is a lot of bullshit in Iowa

plus a lot of pigs and corn

[justgamma]

38. Iowa is a split state.

The west side is extremely red and the east side is pretty blue. That's how we got the fantastic Harkin and Braley and that freak Steve King.

[MineralMan]

40. Thanks for the FUD!

We just don't get enough of that...

[DavidDvorkin]

41. After 1980, I don't take anything for granted.

[OmahaBlueDog]

42. If you consider the axiom that all politics is local, this isn't a surprise to me

People who live along the rivers in Iowa are mad at the Federal government. Many Sioux City and Council Bluffs residents blame the Army Corps for this past summer's floods. People in the quad cities are still bitter over what they perceive as slow FEMA response to the floods in 2008. When you're mad at the feds, the President becomes the lightning rod.

Iowa is not a lost cause, however, and should be a frequent part of a midwest campaign swing (along with MI, WI, and MO).

[treestar]

44. Meh, there is still plenty of time and when they settle their candidate

It will matter a lot more.

[emulatorloo]

48. I read article today in the DMR. They claim 51% of Iowa Democrats want Newt Gingrich for President

Which I gotta tell you as an Iowan, sound totally preposterous and unbelievable.

I don't know who the hell they called, but it sounds like they confined themselves to the area of the state that is represented by Steve King R-IA.

[libinnyandia]

50. The article is a little misleading: Obama beats Gingrich 51 to 37 but loses to the others.

I guess they don't read papers or watch tv. I live in Iowa and I hope the voters in central and eastern Iowa don't vote like the voters in western Iowa.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

54. This IS unsettling

but the campaign hasn't even begun in earnest yet. The only way Iowa goes red is if it looks like the GOP nominee does really well for some reason (i.e. Bush 2004). I'm not seeing it happen so far.

[DFW]

55. Simple question

How much attention has been focused on Republicans in Iowa in the last 2 months?

Next question:

How much attention (not affiliated with republican candidates) has been focused on Obama in Iowa in the last 2 months?

Next question:

Do I really need a next question?

[lovekendyl]

56. Obama up by 7

I saw a poll on Now with Alex Wagner last week that had Obama up 7 points in Iowa...