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2016 Postmortem

Adrahil

(13,340 posts) Wed Mar 2, 2016, 08:45 AM Mar 2016

538: Hilary Clinton's Got This

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clintons-got-this/

The money quote:

"We’ve now seen 15 states vote in the Democratic contest, and it’s clear that Clinton’s coalition is wider than Sanders’s. Sanders has won only in relatively small states where black voters make up less than 10 percent of the population. That’s not going to work this year when black voters are likely to make up more than 20 percent of Democratic primary voters nationwide."

Ouch.

But I learned on DU this morning that black voters don't count, so it's all good.

Another quote:

"Sanders, perhaps not surprisingly, has indicated that he’ll continue to fight for votes across the country. But for every win he may get in mostly white states, Clinton will be marching toward the nomination with likely victories in states such as Michigan and Florida. The math indicates that Clinton eventually will win the nomination with relative ease."

Time for math to go under the bus!