510 to 359, with 165 pledged delegates pending. It's time to come to Jesus.

[morningfog]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml


Hillary is now leading in the PD count by a mere 151. The 165 to be allocated remain in Texas, Tennessee and Dems Abroad. Hillary will take the lion's share of those.

While 151 is not an insurmountable difference to overcome, the margins of each candidate's respective victories is. Hillary has absolutely clobbered Sanders in the south. But Sanders victories (other than in NH and VT) have not been by similar margins.

As we move forward there are a few more southern states which Hillary will pad her lead with. The other states, even if Bernie took them all (which he won't), it will not be by margins to overtake Hillary's count.

At this point, I don't see a viable path to the nomination for Bernie. However, I still support him and the continuance of his campaign because things can happen. And I would prefer that Bernie be the one standing strong in second with a ole of delegates should an unforeseeable circumstance compromise Hillary.

I also think there is value in a show of how much support and excitement Bernie's message can generate through continued campaigning.

And this may not be popular here (and I was a strong proponent of Bernie going negative harder and earlier), but the rest of the campaign should be issue and message focused. It will not serve us for either candidate to be smeared or to focus on electability arguments. Either candidate can and must beat the gopper proffer, particularly if Trump.

[tymorial]

1. God I hate that term.

[GreatGazoo]

45. like the "prayers for Hillary" it is a not too subtle reminder of her opponent's religion

and since when does Hillary = "Jesus" ??

[6chars]

56. since you ask

Hillary has been crucified by the rw for 25 years

[restorefreedom]

2. you could not be more wrong. have a nice day. nt

[morningfog]

6. Show me where and how he'll make up the margin.

[restorefreedom]

14. well, since about 3/4 of the people in the country have not voted

you can start there.

you are free to give up if you want(which of course is exactly what they wanted )

but most of us are fighting on. this was always a pitched hill and a rigged game.

bernie is doing great and has plenty of money to spend, no fbi probe over his head and a great message.

only the beginning....

[morningfog]

18. Yes, 3/4ths left to vote, but what makes you think the outcomes will be different.

I don't see Bernie winning the big states like MI, NY, FL. And the states he will win will be by narrower margins than his losses.

[restorefreedom]

20. he has an excellent chance in mi and ny. not to mention ca. nt

[morningfog]

26. I wish that were true, but I don't think it is.

[restorefreedom]

35. tomato,tomaaaaahto until the votes are done. nt

[kristopher]

118. You assume approval/support ratings now flatline after months of B ^ and Cv?

I don't think so.

[Adrahil]

54. Hey, enthusiam is great, but there is actual math involved.

If Bernie is going to win, he needs to go from under-performing his delegate targets to OVER-performing. How does he do that?

[restorefreedom]

58. by overperforming. not snark. just simplicity. nt

[Adrahil]

73. So your theory is that he will suddenly jump 20+ points in the polls?

After the 15th, if things go as expected, Clinton could lose every remaining state 65-35 and still get the nomination, and that's WITHOUT superdelegates.

The math gets very rough, very quickly.

[restorefreedom]

91. he is likely to do well on the 15th

and again, he is in until convention. hillary desperately needs bernie out because her best states are largely behind her.

sorry, not buying the narraritive.

[Adrahil]

94. Do well on the 15th? Based on WHAT?

Current 538 projections put her chances at over 90% in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio. Bernie is going to get eviscerated on the 15th.

But you are, of course, free to believe what you want.

[restorefreedom]

95. yes becsuse we all know how smart nate is lol. nt

[Adrahil]

96. His models are doing pretty well so far. NT

[restorefreedom]

97. and bernie has come a long way from 3 % in the polls, so far

we shall have to stay tuned, as they say...

[Le Taz Hot]

3. Buh bye.

<flush>

[snooper2]

23. Did you flush your keyboard or the whole machine?

[auntpurl]

4. Good post.

Things can happen! As a Hillary supporter, I want as many Dems as possible to have their voices and their votes heard. I think a long, substantive primary is good for everyone, and people feel more enfranchised if it's not a done deal by the time their state rolls around.

Hillary has a commanding lead, and I'm pleased for her, but I think Bernie supporters should continue to fight and ensure their issues are heard, nationally. Congratulations on Bernie's wins last night.

Agree completely re: substantive and issue-focussed campaigning for the rest of the primary.

[Agschmid]

9. I agree about us having more voices heard being a good thing.

[marions ghost]

51. "feel more enfranchised"

Nope. Not feeling it. feeling the Bern more than ever

[peacebird]

78. I am also feeling the Bern more than ever!

[marions ghost]

80. Let's do this

[peacebird]

82. Just sent another little donation!

[marions ghost]

85. Oh yeah for sure

Gonna see what else I can do too.

[Jester Messiah]

5. How about no?

You and Jesus knock yourselves out, I'll be riding with Bernie 'till the end.

[Flying Squirrel]

29. That was righteous, dude.

[Jester Messiah]

42. Gimme some fin!

[marions ghost]

7. Too soon to call

[Agschmid]

8. Bernie is a great Senator and an inspiring Presidential candidate.

I'm proud of my VT Senator and so happy I got to vote for him against Tarrant in VT. I hope he does not remain quiet and I hope that should Hillary win the nomination she involve him in moving toward, it would be the right thing to do.

I agree that I see a Sanders nomination as w challenge, but I also admit that this primary is not over by a long shot.

Thanks for your post.

[JaneyVee]

31. You live in VT and support HRC?

Pretty awesome.

[Agschmid]

68. *Lived* in VT for 8+ years.

I'm now in Mass, by way of PA, NH, and NY.

I get around.

[beachbum bob]

10. What's the popular vote looking like now???

Me thinks Hillary has a HUGE margin...

[auntpurl]

11. Yes.

It was 2 million or so earlier today. Of course, that doesn't matter much in the primaries, but it's nice to know anyway.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Madame Secretary is leading by 1,389,845 votes

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Democrats Ascendant]

12. Respect!

I really appreciate your post morningfog! Although I'm in the bag for Clinton, I agree that Sanders should continue in the race as long as he wants. As long as things stay civil and respectful, the issues-focused debate, the media attention, and the outreach to new, young, and independent voters will only help the Democratic cause and whoever the nominee will be.

Peace!

[tazkcmo]

13. In it to Win it.

That's Sen Sanders' position and I believe he will conduct his campaign accordingly.

I pretty much agree with your post and respect the opinion of the author. It's reasonable and actually the same narrative we've been hearing for 4 months except with reduced dismissal of Sen Sanders. Instead of fringe candidate he's now a competitive candidate. Other than that, Sec Clinton is and has been the presumptive nominee and until actually defeated will remain that. No surprise there.

Negative campaigning, arm twisting, threats of retaliation, lies. No surprises here, either. Expected. Solid wins in the south. Same thing, it was expected. The only surprises this campaign have been the support shown for Sen Sanders. Everything else was a known.

[Raster]

16. I spoke to Jesus, and she said Hillary may not win the General Election...

...which will probably come down to a question of who is hated more: Clinton or Trump.

Unfortunately, Clinton may win that prize. And even though Sanders has the highest favorability rating OF ANY CANDIDATE, the DWS/DNC/DLC has chosen to do everything in its power to sink the Sanders candidacy, and soon, will realize that all of those Sanders supporters - many of them young people experiencing American politics for the first time - would rather: (1) vote for the other guy; or (2) write-in Sanders or someone else.

So THANKS* Party "Elite" for placing all of our bets on the candidate most likely to lose. If there is any silver lining, it is that DWS will hopefully get voted out of Congress and will end up having to get that waitress in a Deli job she is most qualified for.

-------
*And by thanks, I really mean F.Y.

[VulgarPoet]

17. :l

With only four percent of the nation having voted yet? Surely, you jest.

[morningfog]

22. I am a student of political science and a long time follower of national politics.

This is just the reality. We have enough representative data to make informed projections. I wish the state of the race were different.

[VulgarPoet]

24. I dunno, man.

I can't conscience calling it based on four percent of the electorate. Not this soon. There's a lot more fight to be had.

[JaneyVee]

34. What do you mean 4%? 16 states have voted already.

[VulgarPoet]

49. Last percentage I'd seen, I need to read up again.

My bad.

[Godhumor]

19. I had to make a similar post in 2008. It hurts to do so

Support your guy as long as you can and make sure his message is heard loud and clear.

[obamanut2012]

47. Yeah, I remember when I did the delegate math in 2008

Then the Michigan delegates were tossed, and I knew Hillary was finished, but I still supported her until she backed Obama. And then backed Obama.

Everyone has to find their own path.

[Agschmid]

100. Yup.

[MaggieD]

21. It's actually 596 to 399

So she's beating him by nearly 200 delegates. I don't see a path to victory for Sanders here. Especially with some of the additional drubbings he has coming up.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

[Stuckinthebush]

28. Plus the supers

His path is almost non existent.

But I think he should stay in. No need to quit yet. Once March is over it'll be very clear he can't win. Then, perhaps.

[MaggieD]

33. Yep

[morningfog]

37. I use the count at the link in the OP, they are more deliberate.

[MaggieD]

53. Fivethirtyeight is more accurate

Your link just doesn't allocate all the available delegates. It's like they just quit in the middle. In any case the spread is actually closer to 200 in Clinton's favor.

[morningfog]

55. No, they did not quit in the middle, they are deliberate and

are not relying on estimates as 538 is.

[MaggieD]

61. Well if it's incomplete why use it?

You're painting a misleading picture. You should either use accurate data or not use data at all.

[morningfog]

64. Get lost. You are nit picking bullshit. It is incomplete because the delegates have not yet been

allocated. As per usual, you are just wrong. The Green Papers is the gold standard on tracking delegates and predates 538. There is not a single fucking thing misleading about their numbers.

I notice you ignore the entire point of the post to make a bullshit bad faith argument. Aren't you just back from another time out due to your disruptive posting habits?

[MaggieD]

66. Not the gold standard at all

Your numbers are massively off target. Sorry.

[morningfog]

67. Again, you proudly display your ignorance. SO proud.

So very very proud of it.

[MaggieD]

69. Except I'm right about the delegate count and you're not

LOL!

[morningfog]

72. Hey, serial disruptor, let me help you:

At the bottom of the fivethirtyeight page, http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/ which tabulates the data is a link to sources:

Sources: Republican National Committee; The Green Papers; FrontloadingHQ; news reports.

Do you see who 538 relies on to count the delegate allocation? The Green Papers. The gold fucking standard. 538 filled in the gaps with estimates.

Kindly slink away with your ignorance and disruption.

[morningfog]

76. And this at the top of 538:

We’ve estimated how many delegates each candidate would need in each primary contest to win the nomination.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

And from my fucking OP:

The 165 to be allocated remain in Texas, Tennessee and Dems Abroad. Hillary will take the lion's share of those.

I accept your apology for you being so unnecessarily rude due to your ignorance and hate.

[morningfog]

83. So you admit you were wrong? It's tough after acting so cocky about it.

[mythology]

119. They are using accurate data

That's why it's not called an estimate. Is 538 probably right? Yes. But those delegates aren't officially allocated at this point. They will be soon, but they aren't yet.

[Old Codger]

25. Cliche time

Quitters never win and winners never quit, sad that you or anyone feels that way

[pengu]

27. This is a long way from over

If you support Bernie, you don't say things like he has no path to the nomination. Most of the people haven't voted yet.

[SidDithers]

30. DU rec...

it's all about the delegates, and the math is working against Bernie.

Sid

[demwing]

32. "Come to Jesus"? Nah...you mean "Agree with me!"

And unless you are Jesus, I'll just keep ignoring your defeatist messages.

Come to Jesus...

[EndElectoral]

36. Hillary has won two northern states now by less than 1%. Don't think it's over yet.

[morningfog]

40. And which state Northern state will Bernie win by 30-40 points?

He'll need several of those and it's not going to happen. Bernie knows it too. He's smart.

[Bradical79]

38. So, why would Sanders and his supporters give up?

She 3/4 of the delegates are yet to be determined. Sure, the state by state math may not look great, but I would prefer he keep campaigning until it's official. I feel like Hillary Clinton's faults are too big to just roll over and give up. Her supporters on this website haven't helped any with the easy willingness to outright lie about positions, refusal to discuss issues, and then turn around and expect loyalty from people they've gone out of their way to disenfranchise.

[Koinos]

46. And he certainly has no problem raising the money to be competitive.

The rest of the primary season is very demanding with regard to resources: ads, local organization, ground game, GOTV. I think that Sanders should have no problem with that.

I do think the tone between supporters of the two campaigns should be civil and respectful. One can respectfully disagree, without burning bridges that will be necessary in the general election.

The way I see things, Clinton can deliver the Obama coalition, with African-Americans and Hispanics. Sanders can deliver a good number of younger voters, if he can get them to the polls.

Whoever is the nominee, if the candidates can find common ground, their combined effort in the general election would blow away any Republican.

Otherwise, if Clinton is the nominee, disappointed young voters may stay home; and, if Sanders is the nominee, the Obama coalition may break up, and too many African-Americans and Hispanics may stay home.

This country needs to find some way for both tremendous campaigns to coalesce. Just as a common enemy during wartime brings opposing political parties together, so may Democrats unite despite their differences to defeat Republican fascism, hatred, and bigotry.

I am hopeful that, the longer this primary continues, opportunities for reconciliation and shared vision are fostered rather than discarded.

[demwing]

77. From the OP, because the OP thinks we need "religion"

We need to believe that protecting Hillary is more important, or some such nonsense.

Defeatist bullshit, in other words.

[Koinos]

39. The Platform

If Sanders continues to campaign until the convention, he and his delegates will have a lot of influence in writing the platform and setting the agenda for down ticket elections. We may even see a spirited platform fight or two. This will be good for the Democratic party, whether Sanders is or is not the nominee.

[morningfog]

41. Absolutely, I agree with this.

[TM99]

106. If you agree, then stop echoing

the calls for Sanders to come to heel, withdraw, and all of us leftists Democrats or not better get in line.

No thank you.

[morningfog]

110. Yeah, no where did I say that. The opposite in fact.

[obamanut2012]

43. I agree 100% on the negativity

Both candidates should be issue-driven, and both candidates will definitely endorse and support whichever one of them wins the nomination. If someone Bernie pulls this off, he has my support and my vote.

It looks like Trump will be GOP nom, maybe Rubio, and both are horrible for the US and its people. Solidarity against fascism is what defeats fascism.

Onward and upward!

Great positive post -- all of us should do that more.

[HooptieWagon]

44. Yep, Hillary clobbered Sanders in Jesusland.

But her only victories out of the South were extremely close in Mass, Iowa, and Nev. Theres 33 more on-southern states to go, Sanders will be competively in all of them. If Clinton can only win solid primary victories in the conservative southern states, it doesn't bode well for the GE as she'll get clobbered in those states in the GE.

[GreatGazoo]

48. Isn't that an anti-semetic reference to the Spanish Inquisition?

[morningfog]

50. If it is, I am completely unaware and apologize for the use.

[Faux pas]

52. Kickin'

[CentralMass]

57. It take more the 2300 delegates to win. (I don't have the actual number handy)

This is not even close to being over.

[morningfog]

59. Nowhere close to being over. But there is little that can change the positions.

[liberal_at_heart]

60. Sorry, not a Christian so no coming to Jesus moment. Bernie is in it til the convention and

I will support him until the convention. I will not say on DU who I will vote for in the general election. Hillary supporters and even Hillary's campaign are running a dirty campaign so good luck getting them to stop or getting Bernie supporters to stop calling them out on it. No, this is still a knock down drag out fight. I will not have my freedom to vote taken from me and I will not have my voice silenced.

[Kittycat]

62. Sorry, I don't vote republican or third way. #myvoteisntforsale

Bernie, or my ballot comes with options. My vote isn't for sale.

[WDIM]

63. Bernie's appeal and the appeal of his message can no longer be in doubt after last night.

People saying Bernie cannot appeal to voters and cannot win has been proven wrong.
Sanders won in one of the darkest red states in the country. A Democratic Socialist from Vermont won in red state Oklahoma.

People are truly seeing the corruption in our government, in our banking system, in our corporations, the system is corrupt and it will fail.

Hillary is sounding more like Bernie everyday of course with her we know its fake it till you make it. But the progressives that have come out in support of Bernie need to keep pushing! We cannot let up the pressure on the establishment. It is time to make it clear that the time for their corruption and greed has come to an end!

[MaggieD]

70. How come he's losing then?

And by a lot.

[WDIM]

75. He has won a lot as well. Considering 8 months ago nobody knew who he was.

He has come out of obscurity where only political watchers knew Bernie Sanders.
He is only losing due to name recognition and people not being informed on the issues or the candidates.
Clinton is a household name. People have fond delusional memories of the 90s.
But what he has overcome in this 8 months proves that his message is meaningful to people.
People are fed up with the status quo.

[auntpurl]

107. Genuine question.

How do you explain Hillary supporters on DU and other hyper-political types?

I promise you that I'm informed. And I'm supporting Hillary. So how does that fit with your theory that Bernie is only losing due to name recognition and people not being informed on the issues or the candidates?

[thereismore]

65. I'll settle for a different Jew. nt

[Starry Messenger]

71. Good post.

The successes that Sanders has had should serve as a starting point for future activism around certain issues.

[Avalux]

74. What does that mean - come to Jesus? Should I be on my knees?

Sorry, religious ways of saying "give up" grate on my nerves.

[morningfog]

81. lol. I am ardently non-religious but have always used that phrase

to mean "take an honest look."

Obviously poor choice of words on my part because many seemed incapable of reading past it.

[peacebird]

84. Oh, I am sorry. Around here it's the evangelical touchstone phrase... That's why I took it wrong.

My apologies! I will delete my comment.

[morningfog]

86. No need. I learned my lesson, lol.

[Bluenorthwest]

92. I take it as anti gay dog whistling out of the DOMAcrats.

This is an election, not an alter call. And I am sick of this shit. Super sick of it. An entire lifetime, all the progress of the Obama years and we are still doing this crap each cycle.

[Hortensis]

98. "Come to Jesus" is also a well-established secular term.

I'm a nonbeliever, but I use it myself and not as an anti-gay dog whistle.

The phrase on its own can have pretty nebulous meanings, but its use in "come-to-Jesus moment," which is clearly how it was meant in this thread, is clearly described in Urban Dictionary as:

An epiphany in which one realizes the truth of a matter; a sudden, intuitive perception of or insight into the reality or essential meaning of something; coming clean and admitting failures; realizing the true weight or impact of a negative situation or fact; acknowledgment that one must get back to core values; moment of realization; an aha moment; moment of decision; moment of truth; critical moment; moment of reassessment of priorities; turning point; life-changing moment.

I hope this helps. I wouldn't care to be mistaken for either a Jesus freak or a gay basher.

Regarding being misunderstood, I also wouldn't like my explanation here to be misconstrued as support for the abuse Morningfog directed at another poster. It's not the coarse language I mind, Fog, it's the abusive and assaultive language that is unacceptable.

[Autumn]

87. You do what you please. It's not over till Bernie says it's over.

[SamKnause]

88. You can go to Jesus, I'm sticking with Bernie.

[truedelphi]

102. Heh. heh.

And thank you. Me too!

[Punkingal]

89. No.

I don't think so. Anyway, Jesus wouldn't like the influence of big money in politics.

[Bluenorthwest]

90. Ah, Jesus, the one Hillary blamed for her long term ranting opposition to equality for LGBT.....

no thanks. Not the sort of verbiage the DOMA branch needs to use if it wants any money or time going forward. So fucking sick of the whole religion in politics thing. It's cost me too many years and far too much money, fuck that.

[Garrett78]

93. Sanity at long last.

I was reading threads last night and could hardly believe how many people were denying reality, going so far as to say Sanders "won" Super Tuesday. So many posts, for instance, about how Clinton can only win "deeply red"/southern/confederate states--as if Sanders is likely to dominate in IL, MI, OH, PA, NY, NJ, MD, HI, CA, NM, and so on. As if the people voting in the Democratic primaries of those southern states aren't "real" Democrats like those in, say, Oklahoma and Colorado.

And then there are all those folks trying to draw a comparison to 2008, as if Clinton vs. Obama is a similar dynamic to Clinton vs. Sanders, which is laughably absurd.

I'm not a Gore/Kerry/Obama/Clinton/neoliberal supporter, but I think having a grip on reality is important. Last night's threads displayed some serious delusion.

[lumberjack_jeff]

99. "Unforseeable"? Heh, good one. nt

[truedelphi]

101. It is a shame to see the mention of Jesus on a topic about the immoral farce

known as democracy here in the USA.

Only in a Banana Republic does an electorate put up with having not open elections, but two outmoded, DINO parties arrange for "primary elections" in which the winners of such are basically already decided upon from the get-go.

Bernie would win an a landslide if voters were simply given a pencil and paper and a list of names come November 2016.

But he loses in the primaries because many of those who support him fall into the non-affiliated voter segment of the population - a segment that is larger than that of either of the two parties.

[SwampG8r]

103. Jesus denies your quote

He told me never vote for corruption or warmongers.
He also asks you to stop speaking for him.

[morningfog]

113. It's so funny the reaction I've gotten.

I am a secular atheist but have long used this phase to mean face a hard truth.its so common and base to me I didn't even consider the religious and anti religious reaction. It distracted from the point. Oh well.

[SwampG8r]

115. Dont mistake me

I dont openly advocate for any pretend superbeings but that guy would never endorse hillary
Cluster bombs alone would make him shit his robe .

[morningfog]

117. I totally agree.

[bklyncowgirl]

104. Talk to me in June--if Clinton's still ahead that is.

Oh, and be nice. I'm with Bernie for as long as he's in it. Hopefully he wins the nomination but I'll admit he's a long shot. If Hillary wants more from me than a reluctant vote I do not want to be lectured at.

[morningfog]

112. I am not a Hillary supporter. I voted for Bernie on Tuesday.

And I said explicitly in the OP he should stay in. I'm just looking at the political realities. I'm a poli a I data nerd.

[WiffenPoof]

105. I Understood That...

...there would be no math involved.

[Agschmid]

108. There is always math involved... that's why they made us take Algebra II.

[WiffenPoof]

120. Well played...

I didn't think that anyone would get my humor.

[Half-Century Man]

109. Utterly Tactless Wording.

Demanding/suggesting/claiming that Jewish person(s) need to "come to Jesus".

No we don't, ever.

[morningfog]

111. I've been hammered on that wording at the expense of the larger point.

So it goes. I ardently non-religious, an atheist. It's part of my secular vernacular to mean face a hard truth. Too many shoulders with chips here to get past a common phrase.

[Half-Century Man]

114. You haven't had well meaning people

Tell your children that mommy and daddy are going to hell and they will too, unless they run away to church.

[morningfog]

116. No. I have.

[Half-Century Man]

121. Ani mitz ta'er

I spoke in ignorance.

[cherokeeprogressive]

122. So... come to Jesus or go to Hell? Put me down for go to Hell.

[DesertRat]

123. A voice of reason

It's refreshing.