538: Hillary Clinton’s Got This

[brooklynite]

FiveThirtyEight:

To borrow a phrase from Dan Rather, Hillary Clinton swept through the South like a big wheel through a delta cotton field on Super Tuesday. She won seven states total, including Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia in the South. She also won Massachusetts and American Samoa. Bernie Sanders emerged victorious in four states (Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Vermont), but his victories tended to come by smaller margins and in smaller states. The end result is that Clinton has a clear path to winning the nomination, and Sanders’s only hope to derail her is for something very unusual to happen.

We’ve now seen 15 states vote in the Democratic contest, and it’s clear that Clinton’s coalition is wider than Sanders’s. Sanders has won only in relatively small states where black voters make up less than 10 percent of the population. That’s not going to work this year when black voters are likely to make up more than 20 percent of Democratic primary voters nationwide.

On Tuesday, we saw why. As she did in Nevada and South Carolina, Clinton won huge margins of black voters. Her worst performance was in Oklahoma, where 71 percent of black voters in the Democratic primary chose her. In Alabama, she won 93 percent of black voters on her way to winning 78 percent of Democrats overall. Clinton took no less than 64 percent of the overall vote in the southern states she won.

It wasn’t just just black voters, either: Clinton dominated with Hispanics in Texas. There had been some questions about how Hispanics voted in Nevada, but there was little doubt in Texas. The exit poll showed Clinton with a 42 percentage point win among Hispanics, about the margin she won in counties such as Hidalgo, where Hispanics make up 91 percent of the population. Those results bode well for Clinton in states such as Arizona, California, Florida and New Mexico.

[Spazito]

1. Wow!

Very interesting read, thanks for posting it.

[WDIM]

2. Considering the south will vote Republican in the General is it really a surpise

that they support the closest thing to a Republican the Democrats have?

[JaneyVee]

5. And Massachusetts and Virginia..

With your logic, should we not count Bernie's win in Oklahoma?

[frazzled]

11. None of the primary contests has any bearing on the general election

It's true: deep red states will be won by Republicans in the general. So it doesn't matter whether Hillary or Bernie wins them.
By the same token, deep blue states will be won by Democrats in the general. So it doesn't matter whether Hillary or Bernie wins them.
The swing states may possibly hold some potential indications about the general, but not based on who wins the Democratic primaries, but rather on strength of turnouts of each party in those states. Even then it's not dispositive. The Republican primary is far more contentious this year, and so it would not be surprising for it to draw more Republicans into the fray (if only because the Cruz and Rubio voters, who together outnumber the Trump voters) are trying for a last stand to block frontrunner Trump. (They're splitting the not-Trump vote, however, unlike in the Democratic contest, where there is only one not-Clinton).

The primary is a contest among Democrats (or Democratic leaners) only, to determine who should be the Democratic nominee. It's a preference choice for the party alone. Whoever gets the requisite 2,382 pledged delegates will win it. That's how it works. It doesn't matter at all what kind of state the wins come from. All the people voting are legitimate Democratic voters, and it's truly insulting to dismiss them.

The Democrats cannot win in November if they don't have the black and Latino voters coming out. Clinton has those voters right now, as the Southern States, and the first large Hispanic-voting state (Texas) have shown categorically.

[datguy_6]

3. Until the subpoenas served, the criminal referral is issued and the special prosecutor is appointed

And then all of those Super Delegates will flee like rats on the Titanic...

[brooklynite]

6. I suppose it's nice to have something to dream about...

[JaneyVee]

7. I thought Breitbart died.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Snort.

[PeaceNikki]

13. ... and then your mom wakes you up because you're late for school.

[Iliyah]

4. K & R

[Agnosticsherbet]

8. Very good analysis by 538.

I am interested is seeing how her wins on super Tuesday affect the coming races.

[Surya Gayatri]

9. Nate Silver and his bogus numbers blog are not welcome here...doncha know? (sarc.)

[DCBob]

12. >>>> "results bode well for Clinton in states such as Arizona, California, Florida and New Mexico."

"The exit poll showed Clinton with a 42 percentage point win among Hispanics, about the margin she won in counties such as Hidalgo, where Hispanics make up 91 percent of the population. Those results bode well for Clinton in states such as Arizona, California, Florida and New Mexico."

[lunamagica]

14. K&R.