Not Fun With Math...
Disclosure: I support Bernie. This post is about math, which does NOT support Bernie.
I thought I noticed something odd last night - it looked like Hillary was walking away with "red" states, while Bernie was doing well in "blue" states. Then I looked closer, and started playing with the numbers, and got a little freaked out.
I looked at only the ten states where both parties finished their primaries yesterday and looked at the vote totals to see who was getting the most "wins". I was wondering who really won. What I found was initially terrifying.
Code: HC = Hillary Clinton; BS = Bernie Sanders; DT = Donald Trump; TC = Ted Cruz; MR = Marco Rubio; JK = John Kasich; BC = Ben Carson
I used numbers from The Guardian website as of 8:00 am eastern. http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/01/super-tuesday-results-live-state-by-state
In Round 1 of this game, I rounded to the nearest thousand.
In Alabama,
#1: DT @ 372
#2: HC @ 310
#3: TC @ 181
#4: MR @ 160
#5: BC @ 88
#6: BS @ 76
#7: JK @ 38
Eeek! Bernie at 6th, Hillary in 2nd, and a total trouncing once Ted and Marco are out of the race.
Arkansas had Trump #1/Hillary #2, as did Tennesee and Texas, while the two flipped roles in Georgia and Virginia.
In Massachusetts,
#1: HC @ 589
#2: BS @ 563
#3: DT @ 299
#4: JK @ 110
#5: MR @ 109
#6: TC @ 58
#7: BC @ 7
In Minnesota it was Bernie #1/Hillary #2 while Oklahoma was Bernie/Ted and Vermont was Bernie/Donald.
In total votes cast per state, Hillary, Donald and Bernie each took FIRST PLACE three different time, and Ted got it once (in Texas). Hillary took SECOND five times, Donald three times, while Bernie and Ted each got it once. Hillary did one third and one fourth; Bernie was in 5th four times (one fourth and one sixth), while third belonged to Donald twice, Marco and Ted three times, and John had it as a personal best (in Vermont). Marco owned fourth place four times, and fifth place three. John and Ben live in sixth and seventh.
For total votes cast, here are the totals:
In Alabama,
#1: HC @ 3,485,835
#2: DT @ 2,920,181
#3: TC @ 2,483,561
#4: BS @ 2,192,670
#5: MR @ 1,866,042
#6: JK @ 588,082
#7: BC @ 438,503
Of the 5.6 million Democrats who came out to vote, Hillary took 61% and Bernie 39%.
Of the 8.3 million Republicans who came out to vote, Donald took 35%, Ted 30% and Marco 22%.
What should scare the Hillary supporters is that of nearly 14 million votes cast, Hillary ONLY took 25%. Donald took 21%, Ted took 18% and Bernie took 16%.
59% of the motivated voters were REPUBLICAN.
Pretend Hillary and Donald are the only two left. Assume they are able to keep their current support and get half of their opponents voters.
Final score: HILLARY 4.6M and DONALD 5.6M.
Yes, I know that popular vote doesn't equal electoral votes and these were mostly red states.
But "President Donald" might be a possibility. Bush Junior was supremely unqualified in every conceivable way except name recognition, and he ended up in the White House.
= new reply since forum marked as read
Motivated voters in red states....keep in mind that "big blue states" haven't voted yet.
