2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAccording to FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver, Hillary is almost guaranteed of winning the next 5
Democratic primaries.
Past those Sanders has a decent to good chance to win Utah and Wisconsin.
Then, after those, Clinton has sizable leads in Pennsylvania, Maryland, New York, New Jersey, and California, leading each by 15 points or more.
March 8
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Michigan http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
Hillary has a 98% chance of winning, projecting 60 to 36.
March 15
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1.) Florida http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-democratic/
Hillary has a 99% chance of winning, projecting 67 to 30.
2.) Illinois http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/illinois-democratic/
Hillary has a 99% chance of winning, projecting 65 to 30.
3.) Ohio http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/ohio-democratic/
Hillary has a 94% chance of winning, projecting 60 to 38.
4.) North Carolina http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/north-carolina-democratic/
Hillary has a 96% chance of winning, projecting 60 to 37.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)they will take place.
And Mississippi and Missouri are also on the 15th.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)But he is expects that, thanks to the size of Louisiana and Hillary's expected margin, she will actually gain delegates vs Bernie for the weekend.
4lbs
(6,855 posts)up-to-date polling information as the ones I presented, so that could be why FiveThirtyEight didn't predict an outcome on those.
Yes, I do think think Bernie will win 3 of those states, namely Maine, Kansas, and Nebraska.
Kansas and Nebraska demographics are similar to Oklahoma, so Bernie has the significant edge there.
Maine will be like Vermont and New Hampshire. I also expect Bernie to win Connecticut, and maybe even Rhode Island.
Louisiana is more diverse, and should be like Texas in voting. So Hillary is favored.
MADem
(135,425 posts)I wouldn't be surprised if he picks up KS and NE too.
He'd probably be happier if more people lived in those states, as they aren't terribly "delegate rich."
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Sanders will get clobbered in Mississippi.
He might win Missouri on March 15 in a close contest, but it will depend how much vote Clinton gets out of St. Louis. It's a complete toss-up for me: 50-50 in Missouri, and a likely delegate wash.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)to turn their attention to winning the GE, and that will of course benefit Hillary as our very strong frontrunner.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)And his voodoo math... obviously in the tank for hillary$$$
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)Is that what he used to correctly predict 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election. (He missed only Indiana; Obama won it by 0.1%)
Or what he used to predict all 50 states in 2012? Of course he uses, you know, statistics. But by all means, call it voodoo if you want.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)of fivethirtyeight.com? He's pretty much batting 1000 so far.
Sorry, you can't argue with numbers. You'll always lose.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)on his predictions of several election contests so far this cycle.
Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)Batting 1.000 is a pretty big claim that, as you indicate is the tell all, the numbers do not support.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)sorry... "voodoo math" was sarcasm and stuff...
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)Sorry. It's hard to tell these days what is sarcasm!
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)no facial expressions, voice tone, or body language to help us interpret.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)That's bad juju!
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)much like a 3 out of 4 run for Sanders).
You may want to re-title your OP because the "next 5" are not the races you are talking about in your post.
Divernan
(15,480 posts)Time to invest in pearl necklaces and fainting couch futures.
You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Wed Mar 2, 2016, 06:29 PM, and the Jury voted 3-4 to LEAVE IT.
Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Sick of insults.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Pretty weak sauce, alerter, to get all kerfluffled over the term "Hillarian".
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: waste of alert
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Explanation: Please.
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: This nastiness amongst fellow Democrats ....unacceptable. You all know the rules.
George II
(67,782 posts)Among Louisiana (54), Nebraska (26), Kansas (33), and Maine (25), Clinton is ahead in all but Maine.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Bernie Bot, go ahead, but you know I'm not a 'bot, right?
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Weekend's net delegate change will be in the area of +16 Sanders.
That will be wiped out by Mississippi.
Clinton will then get +23-26 delegates out of Michigan.
Let's say Saturday through Tuesday net delegates +25 Clinton.
brooklynite
(94,568 posts)We all know southern votes don't count.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)in its place.
Sanders never has and never will legitimately lose an election.