2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGreat piece by @markos: "A real liberal revolution starts with communities of color"
Yes, well worth the time to read.
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Kate Oh @kathoh 9h9 hours ago
Great piece by @markos: "A real liberal revolution starts with communities of color" http://m.dailykos.com/stories/2016/3/2/1494621/-A-real-liberal-revolution-starts-with-communities-of-color
cc: @docrocktex26
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There is no movement without diversity.
A real liberal revolution starts with communities of color
Mar 02, 2016 1:51pm CST by kos
Despite all of Bernie Sanders laudable successes, hes been hamstrung by his consistent inability to make inroads in communities of color. It was the basis of my original demographic ceiling thesis, which I had pegged at 30 percent. He exceeded that, but getting to 38 percent is cold comfort to those who wanted to see a real movement blossom. And the early state results bear it out: You do not build a liberal movement by bringing together white people, then hoping that people of color come along for the ride. You start with those communities of color.
And as the early state results make clear, that never happened.
From the exit polling:
Bernie Sanders, Support from Blacks, Latinos STATE Black Latino
NV 22 53*
SC 14 -
AL 6 -
AR 9 -
GA 14 -
OK 27 -
TN 10 -
TX 15 29
VA 16 -
The Nevada results among Latinos have to be a mistake (entrance polls are polls after all), since actual results clearly showed Hillary Clinton handily winning Latino precincts.
In the 76 precincts in Clark County where we believe that a plurality of registered Democrats are Hispanic, Mrs. Clinton defeated Mr. Sanders in the delegate count by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent. In the smaller number of majority Hispanic precincts, she seemed to win about 60 percent of the delegates, and she won perhaps 65 percent of the delegates in the precincts where Hispanics appeared to be a particularly large share of registered Democrats.
Colorado was a caucus state in which only about 2 percent of the states population participated in the Democratic caucus. And we know that caucuses weed out less active and engaged voters. But even then, we can use geography to extrapolate Latino performance. There are two majority Latino districts in the entire state, Costilla (68 percent Latino) and Conejos (59 percent Latino). Sanders got 20 percent and 40 percent, respectively. But really, the number of votes was so small that it renders any analysis essentially meaningless. If you have a system that discourages people from participating, Latinos wont be the people voting.
In Massachusetts, 10 percent of the population is Latino, yet just 6 percent of voters were, according to the exit polls, too small a sample size to get valid results. However, we can again turn to geography:
County % Latino Clinton Sanders
Lawrence 74 71 28
Chelsea 62 59 40
Holyoke 48 50 49
Springfield 39 61 38
So why is it important to start from the bottom up? .....................