2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton = no coattails.
Independents are 40% of the electorate, and she is losing badly with them. She is losing Millennials, many of whom can be convinced to vote for her, but that's all they'll do, given that Clinton is inspiring no enthusiasm whatsoever.
Granted, she'll probably pull a significant number of older Republican women who will be disgusted by Repuke sexism and interested in cracking the glass ceiling. No coattails there either, since they will vote for Clinton but vote Republican candidates all the way down the rest of the ticket.
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)Skid Rogue
(711 posts)any Democrat will have giant coattails. Keep your fingers crossed.
Downwinder
(12,869 posts)eridani
(51,907 posts)--downticket races. The disgust factor will be a big help, hopefully
But Sanders does better against Trump and all other Repub possibilities.
dflprincess
(28,078 posts)but they won't bother with the down ticket races.
Skid Rogue
(711 posts)He's put every minority down. Folks are pissed off and frightened. You'll have little Latina grandmothers voting for the first time and they'll vote straight ticket. He's gone after African Americans, and Muslims, and Latinos, and Asians, and women and everyone else. We're not a "white" country anymore. Trump is the best advertisement for the Democratic Party. People might not be voting FOR Hillary, or Bernie, but new voters will show up to defeat Trump. That might be just a pretty idea, but I believe it.
Response to Skid Rogue (Reply #17)
Dragonfli This message was self-deleted by its author.
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)The GOP hates Trump. Ask yourself why. They prefer Cruz or Rubio. Why? I'm no Trump fan but why follow the Republican establishment in their desire to rid themselves of Trump in favor of Rubio or Cruz? Why do you want what they want?
Skid Rogue
(711 posts)Cruz is a bit more of a problem for us. I agree.
monicaangela
(1,508 posts)I wouldn't be so sure of that.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)it's down ticket that's going to suffer. Plus republicans would get to run against her in '18 and '20. At that point it wouldn't matter who was in the White House.
Cassiopeia
(2,603 posts)I can easily see the Republicans getting away from the tea party a little more and we lose really big in 2020. Even if Hillary squeaks out a win if she's chosen by SD's we lose from this election on out and we lose BIG.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)they would still be able to lay the blame for their mistakes, and her's, at her feet. Game over. No chance for any of us.
I'm going to bed before I depress myself any more.
JudyM
(29,248 posts)msongs
(67,405 posts)eridani
(51,907 posts)He has always voted with Dems in Congress, far more than many with the D after their names. The majority of Dems in Congress (counting both houses) voted against the Iraq war authorization. Clinton was on the other side.
doc03
(35,337 posts)any help in 2010 and 2012.
eridani
(51,907 posts)Boomers are no longer the largest voting bloc--we are dying off.
doc03
(35,337 posts)election in 2008 they didn't show up in 2010 and again in 2012. In the long run we are worse off than we were in 2008
the Republicans have captured the House, Senate and they will most likely take the SCOTUS unless through some miracle
a Democrat gets elected.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)this is quite the uncomfortable truth... they were not given any reason to be excited,. And they are not going to have a reason to be that excited again.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)for many of them, it was their first time voting, and they didn't understand the importance of the midterms.
Know who did know about the midterms? All the pissed off old republican farts who didn't get the president they wanted. And suddenly, BAM, republican controlled house and senate.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)I mean it
retrowire
(10,345 posts)I have to say it! there's certainly a portion that felt that electing the president was enough.
you are right though that the party itself should probably have done more to educate the newcomers.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)gave the kids a reason to vote for. I have heard this so many times from your generation.
It is not just educating them... for the record, part of that I blame the schools and yes, we in the media. Schools no longer have civics education, and the media is in the infotainment business. But if the candidates put up for election are not exciting, do not speak to kids, and really could care less, why should they show up?
And by the way, I expect this election to have low democratic turn out in the GE... the correlation since 2000, is that strong.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)snowy owl
(2,145 posts)Obama disappointed new progressives and they didn't come back. These same new progressives will do the same for Bernie if he is elected and he doesn't come through. That's all there was to it. I voted Green in 2012. Obama governed from the first center-right. That was not what we expected. I'm not saying he's been a bad President but he promised more and it wasn't the republicans who kept him from performing. He had center-right values. In a way, he was a fraud. Sorry. If Bernie is a fraud, he'll get the same blowback. I hope and don't think he is.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)of barrier with the Congress. The difference is that bully pulpit. I expect two of them from different places to use it. That is my read. The other two, will try to play up to get along.
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)Isn't that where Bernie's coattails could be more effective?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)For you, I''m presuming that means "Democrats," and that's fair.
For me, it's Liberals," as I'm not a Democrat, I'm an independent socialist. Bernie's spent most of his life fighting for essentially the same principles that matter to me, more time than I've been on the planet. Hillary has done so, too...but not consistently, and not at all on some issues of considerable import. It's as simple as that...
retrowire
(10,345 posts)guess what?
We don't give a flying fuck about your red and blue two party system. We don't give a fuck about the team, the history or what you've been through.
The only reason we're following Bernie is because of the message. His party affiliation NEVER MATTERED. And to anyone who thinks a D or an R matters? You must be a political fanatic but, you're living in a bubble if you think my generation really cares much about parties.
(the political kind of party anyways. Real parties though? Cool!)
That said, I do find that I lean Democratically, but I don't really give a damn if the party collapses or changes color. It's about the mission. And if the Democratic Party wants to prove to me that it DOESN'T stand for progressive values, I'll just take my ball elsewhere.
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)retrowire
(10,345 posts)We shouldn't be loyalists to brands, colors or parties. We should be loyal to OUR VALUES.
If the Republican party just flipped a switch and started being pro Bernie all the time and meant it? I guess I'd be a Republican. The point is, I don't give a damn about labels. What good is a label without the substance of it's mission?
Smarmie Doofus
(14,498 posts)Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)onenote
(42,703 posts)that they should vote for Clinton, will you decide your decision that you made a mistake getting into politics?
retrowire
(10,345 posts)I've said numerous times here that should Bernie fail to secure the nomination, I'll vote Hillary if only to avoid the next Hitler Trump or Christian Caliphate Cruz.
But I won't work for Hillary, she'll only get a vote nothing more. And I'll only rise to vote again next time I see another Bernie, or another tyrannical hitler-esque opponent.
Bernie would want us to vote Hillary. He himself said when he voted for Bill, it was a lesser of two evils situation but it had to be done.
onenote
(42,703 posts)Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)He has caucused with the Democrats for 16 years in the United States House of Representatives, 10 years in the United States Senate;
where he served on many committees Representing the Democratic party such as the:
Committee on the Budget (Ranking Member)
Committee on Environment and Public Works
Subcommittee on Clean Air and Nuclear Safety
Subcommittee on Green Jobs and the New Economy
Subcommittee on Transportation and Infrastructure
Committee on Energy and Natural Resources
Subcommittee on Energy
Subcommittee on National Parks
Subcommittee on Water and Power
Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions
Subcommittee on Children and Families
Subcommittee on Primary Health and Aging (Ranking Member)
Committee on Veterans' Affairs (chairman)
He has every right to expect reciprocal loyalty from Democrats that he served with such loyalty and in so many capacities.
Lieberman on the other hand, was more Republican than Democratic and received not only "neutrality" but endorsements for him as an Independent OVER A DEMOCRAT.
You have no point, no wait you do, a "false talking point".
monicaangela
(1,508 posts)An independent or nonpartisan politician is an individual politician not affiliated to any political party. There are numerous reasons why someone may stand for office as an independent.
Independents may support policies which are different from those of the major political parties.
In some parts of the world electors may have a tradition of electing independents, so standing for a political party is a disadvantage.
In some countries (including Russia) a political party can only be registered if it has a huge number of members in more than one region, but in certain regions only a minority of electors support the major parties.
In some countries (including Kuwait), political parties are unlawful and all candidates thus stand as independents.[1]
Some independent politicians may be associated with a political party, perhaps as former members of it, or else have views that align with it, but choose not to stand in its name, or are unable to do so because the party in question has selected another candidate. Others may belong to or support a political party at the national level but believe they should not formally represent it (and thus be subject to its policies) at another level.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_politician
So are you voting for the person or the party. If you are voting for the party then don't be mad at republicans that are doing the same thing when they vote for Trump, Cruz or Rubio.
Sanders has caucused and voted with the Dems his entire career. He has stood up strong for the true democratic message far longer than Hillary has.
Labels mean nothing, actions mean everything.
longship
(40,416 posts)But, meh! He's no Democrat???
That dog don't hunt.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)the little turncoat.
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)but he has stronger democratic principles than the "frontrunner". This big business shift is why we only win the presidency. Why would independents be attracted to the democratic party when a large part of the time they are shouting " me too". If I was an independent I wouldn't vote for a democrat acting like a republican when I could just vote for the "real" thing.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)maybe you should listen, cause that is misnifo
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)Seniority of membership means jack shit, championing the causes and principles the party is SUPPOSED to stand for do.
You want coattails, put up a candidate who is *credible* on all those things you tell people you're about and give them a reason to believe your party actually gives a shit about all those things it says it does.
And on any day of his life Sanders buries Clinton on that score... not just the most recent 1/73rd of it. Sanders not being a Democrat before now is the party's fault, not his.
dchill
(38,492 posts)Than DLC, DNC, DWS, and HRC!
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)You voting for number?
doc03
(35,337 posts)Congressmen endorse the person that won't help them be re-elected? How many of Sander's fellow Senators endorsed
him one or two?
eridani
(51,907 posts)doc03
(35,337 posts)Sanders? He has been in Washington what 30 years?
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)They represent whoever can line their pocket books the most.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)It's served them well over the years, and they can't imagine that they might not just automatically win re-election based on 'team red vs team blue'.
Divernan
(15,480 posts)Bill Clinton campaigned/interfered in a Pennsylvania congressional primary to support the opponent of a Congressman who had endorsed Obama over Hillary. Bill's candidate won the primary and lost the general election. Of course, neither Clinton showed up to campaign for their guy in the general election. They didn't give a flying you-know-what about Bill's BFF running for Congress. It was all and ONLY about punishing the guy who had endorsed Obama. The Wrath of Klinton!
Book: Clintons put Altmire on political 'hit list' after 2008 primary
http://www.timesonline.com/news/local_news/book-clintons-put-altmire-on-political-hit-list-after-primary/article_898a33c2-2fb7-5e76-ba93-1818318cfd80.html
Clintons Still Hate Obama - Backing Democrats
Forgive and forget? Not Bill and Hillary.
A system of political rewards and punishments devised by the political power couple set aside a special circle of Clinton hell . . . for people who had endorsed [President] Obama, according to HRC, a new book by Politico former White House bureau chief Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes of The Hill.
The most helpful Clintonistas were rated 1 under the Clintons rating system, while turncoat former allies, such as John Kerry, received 7s.
The Clinton camp would later joke about the fates of the folks they felt had betrayed them, the book said.
Bill Richardson: investigated; John Edwards: disgraced by scandal; Chris Dodd: stepped down; . . . Ted Kennedy: dead, an aide quipped, according to the book.
http://nypost.com/2014/02/09/clintons-keeping-revenge-list-of-enemy-dems-who-supported-obama/
monicaangela
(1,508 posts)MONEY! They are all looking forward to the donations from that candidate that are going to go into their coffers...And now with Citizens United..the sky is the limit. Which candidate is most connected? Most establishment? If you are a gambler and most politicians are, you'll go with the establishment candidate that is most connected for the reasons I have described, even it that person isn't the best candidate for the country.
Beowulf
(761 posts)1. Crossing the Clinton machine means taking a huge hit on your list of donors.
2. If you endorse Bernie and Hillary wins, say goodbye to choice committee assignments, DNC support, and face the real possibility of getting primaries next election.
3. If you endorse Hillary and Bernie wins, it's unlikely Bernie would retaliate.
4. Bernie is attempting to break the stranglehold the elite have on power. Most people in Congress are part of the elite.
James Rucker, co-founder of ColorofChange.org, has been quite articulate about the risks of crossing the Clinton machine.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)really?
Oh, come over here.
You scratch my back, I scratch yours. That is the great summary. But endorsements outside of the beltway, whit the real voter, have absolutely no value at all. They used to at one time. Like paper endorsements. Back then parties actually had more of a power over the voter, These days... they have the value of warm spit,
But that endorsement... means money from the usual suspects for their campaign. Oh and you really do not want to cross the machine. Party machines are last century, but they still have power.
SMC22307
(8,090 posts)Quite frankly, if she loses, look out for her Third Way "helping" on Social Security and Medicare. I don't trust either of them for a New York minute.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)are holding both parties accountable for the mess we're in.
eridani
(51,907 posts)I've convinced a number or younger Sanders uspporters in Seattle to vote for the Dem nominee whoever it is--but that's ALL they'll be doing.
monicaangela
(1,508 posts)Millennials are fed up and are not going to go along to get along.
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)Once again almost wishing big failure for in the GE if Hillary wins. Not good.
eridani
(51,907 posts)Are any of them wrong? Why?
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Will be swept into office on Bernie's coattails! Let's count them. Let's see there's.... Can't think of any at the moment
eridani
(51,907 posts)retrowire
(10,345 posts)snowy owl
(2,145 posts)Divernan
(15,480 posts)I belong to some civic organizations with older women, several of whom are Republican. Yes, they are generally offended by sexism, but they are still particularly incensed over Bill's serial adulteries and think Hillary, with her Ivy law degree and the ability to make a very lucrative living, was an insecure fool to stay married to a man like that. Have also heard them comment that Hillary set a terrible example for her daughter by remaining married to a man who repeatedly cheated on her and publicly humiliated her. And many times I have heard the comment: "She voted for the Iraq war, you know."
Of the over 100 women whom I know well enough to know whom they favor in this year's presidential primaries, I know only ONE who supports Hillary. And that woman is a politically ambitious lawyer with her nose far up the ass of the county and state Democratic machines. She doesn't support Hillary because H is a woman. She supports H. because that's whom the machine tells her to support if she wants to be a state committeewoman. It's strictly quid pro quo. At the same time, this woman is actively opposing a couple of excellent progressive Democratic candidates (1 a woman running for U.S. Congress and the other a man running for U.S. Senate).
Just my anecdotal input from Pennsylvania.
eridani
(51,907 posts)But I know a number of Republican women who are more grossed out by Trump than by Bill Maybe it's 6 of one and half a dozen of the other.
monicaangela
(1,508 posts)the idea of having a government that is in a constant state of chaos. If she doesn't bring in representatives to take the senate and fix the numbers in the house, we are in for another 4 years at least of stalemate government.
eridani
(51,907 posts)But it is much more likely that Sanders will be able to keep the newly involved still involved.
monicaangela
(1,508 posts)of a risk with Clinton. I believe the momentum behind Sanders will follow him into the White House, that is what is needed. Hopefully he will continue to do the will of his constituents and not try to run government alone once he wins the election. If he wins the election. If he doesn't I hope he continue to work with his followers and helps to find another candidate that can run under the same platform as he is running on in 4 years. This won't be over in January if Bernie doesn't win trust me. This is a movement and will continue.
mythology
(9,527 posts)How does Sanders win without the votes of women and minorities given that he's not winning those in the primaries?
eridani
(51,907 posts)Sanders already has Millennial women--who will vote for Clinton but not work for her.
onenote
(42,703 posts)repubs, but millennials won't?
What sort of message does that send to those groups that currently support Clinton? That their votes can be taken for granted, but your's can't?
I voted for Bernie in Virginia. But I can do the math and it doesn't look good. If Bernie doesn't get the nomination, I will enthusiastically support Clinton, because I will not act with callous disregard or indifference to my gay friends, my non-Christian friends, my non-Caucasian friends, my friends with disabilities -- the people who will be directly and adversely impacted for years by a repub victory.
Imagine that there is a 1%er bankster in your town -- well known, wife, two kids, dog. You are in a coffee shop and you overhear some folks raging about how the bankster screwed them over and they're going to break into his house and kill him and his family. You have three choices: throw in with the plotters and help them rid the world of the bankster and his family. You can recognize that there are degrees of evil and takes steps to prevent the plotters, even if means a sacrifice on your part. Or you can decide you don't care what happens to the bankster and his family and go home and do nothing. The last choice enables the plotters and results in innocent people being harmed. And the bankster is replaced by another bankster.
What do you do?
eridani
(51,907 posts)The alienated aren't all young, either. In 2008, I re-registered a lower income woman who hadn't voted since 1992. Now what did 2008 and 1992 have in common? A fresh new face, and mayber if she votes her life won't be so hard.
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)JudyM
(29,248 posts)real electability (in the General against Trump or whoever) with electability for the nom as whitewashed by the Superdelegate hoax.
JB in A2
(7 posts)I live in Michigan and have canvassed for Bernie 10 days - in last two days I have received 3 mailers from HRC all about how she is tougher on guns than Bernie with his NRA rating of D-
Is this the best she can come up with?
Darb
(2,807 posts)Making that statement at this point is suspect at best.
Embarrassing.
senseandsensibility
(17,037 posts)Hillary, from what I can see. They're older, and by definition, less open to switching parties. If they were concerned with sexism, why would they be repugs to begin with? Sorry, my entire family on both sides, including in-laws, are repugs, and this includes many women over the age of sixty. They are not open to "Hill", and in fact, hate her.
zentrum
(9,865 posts)women (pre-bagger) exemplify her anyway.
JohnnyRingo
(18,628 posts)I work the polls and Independent is low single digit. Nearly everyone is registered R or D in the books.
Sure, during the primary a good number try to claim Independent when asked, but that's just a way of saying "none of your business". Once they're told they need to state to get a ballot, they sheepishly admit their party.
Fuddnik
(8,846 posts)They're admitting nothing other than the side they want to cast their primary ballot for.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and in CA it is the fastest growing "party."
JohnnyRingo
(18,628 posts)... and Independent Party member. A lot of people like to think of themselves as free from group think even though they vote a consistent party ticket and answer as such in polls. It doesn't mean they vote for a candidate from the Independent Party. Reliable polls ask which way these "independents" lean.
In many cases it'll be a lifelong Democrat who voted for Reagan. Once.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)And because of the abandonment of the GOP by voters in California the party has issues like oh...money.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)You know, where the members of the parties are mostly voting on their party's nominee?
As opposed to the General Election, where the entire country votes on who will be their president? The country that looks like this:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
JohnnyRingo
(18,628 posts)This is because these "independents" don't really vote for members of the Independent Party, but instead are self imagined swing voters who carefully examine each candidate before selecting the party they usually vote for anyway. Rush Limbaugh has long claimed to be an independent voter, but I think we all know which way he "leans".
Often an "independent" is a lifelong Democrat who voted for Reagan. Once
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)1. You were demonstrably wrong about the vast majority of people being one party or the other.
2. There is no "Independent Party" that doesn't mean they all go out and vote Democratic or Republican whatever they answer to a "what way do you lean" question and get offered a binary choice. Come election time they often tell both parties just go fuck off because neither one is,worth voting for in their opinion. Have you *seen* voter turnout rates in this country?
3. Additionally someone only leaning one direction or the other is the most easily swayable vote IF you appeal to them. Sanders does. Clinton is "well that party that was never serious enough about its principles for me to join is doubling down on more of the same again I see" as far as Independents are concerned. ZERO change from the status quo that already has them not signing up.
dchill
(38,492 posts)PonyUp
(1,680 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)...but NEGATIVE coattails.
raouldukelives
(5,178 posts)Gothmog
(145,231 posts)Sanders is not being supported by the super delegates in large part because they believe that he would kill good democratic candidates in down ballot races.
eridani
(51,907 posts)Gothmog
(145,231 posts)It is my understanding that the reason why Sanders is proposing a number of programs that have no chance of passing is that his revolution will force the GOP in congress to be reasonable. The trouble is that there are no signs of this revolution. revolution https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/10/sorry-bernie-sanders-there-is-zero-evidence-of-your-political-revolution-yet/
To succeed, Sanders might have to drive Americans who don't normally participate to the polls. Unfortunately for him, groups who usually do not vote did not turn out in unusually large numbers in New Hampshire, according to exit polling data.
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484
...As for Sanders, he credited his victory to turnout. "Because of a huge voter turnout -- and I say huge -- we won," he said in his speech declaring victory, dropping the "h" in "huge." "We harnessed the energy, and the excitement that the Democratic party will need to succeed in November."
In fact, Sanders won by persuading many habitual Democratic primary voters to support him. With 95 percent of precincts reporting their results as of Wednesday morning, just 241,000 ballots had been cast in the Democratic primary, fewer than the 268,000 projected by New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner last week. Nearly 289,000 voters cast ballots in the state's Democratic primary in 2008.
To be sure, the general election is still seven months away. Ordinary Americans might be paying little attention to the campaign at this point, and if Sanders wins the nomination, he'll have the help of the Democratic Party apparatus in registering new voters. The political revolution hasn't started, though, at least not yet.
Without this revolution, I am not sure how Sanders proposes to advance his unrealistic agenda.
I live in the real world and I simply do not believe that Sanders' agenda is realistic and the lack of any evidence of a Sanders revolution reinforces my opinion
Please vote for the candidate of your choice for any reason that you deem appropriate. Others are free to vote for the candidate of their choice based on the facts as they see them
Gothmog
(145,231 posts)Where are the millions and millions of new voters? http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/sanders-turnout-revolution-still-hasnt-materialized
The turnout rates, however, added insult to injury.
With 99 percent of the vote counted turnout was about 370,000, according to Edison Research modest compared with the 532,000 ballots cast in the Clinton-Obama primary race here in 2008, and well below the record 743,000 votes cast in South Carolinas Republican primary last Saturday, which [Donald Trump] won.
If this is starting to sound familiar, theres a very good reason for that. Heading into Super Tuesday, each party has held four nominating contests: the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, Nevada caucuses, and South Carolina primary. In each instance, Democratic turnout has dropped since the partys most recent competitive race.
And in each instance, Republican turnout has broken party records.
Based on the latest available information, Democratic turnout dropped 27% in Iowa, 13% in New Hampshire, 29% in Nevada, and about 30% in South Carolina.
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Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)How can a candidate who actually inspires enthusiasm hurt down ballot candidates?
It's not as though we can ONLY do well in down ballot races if our nominee is a hawk who loves corporate trade deals.
Gothmog
(145,231 posts)He is not doing a good job of this so far.
merrily
(45,251 posts)She has reverse coattails. She hoped the endorsement of almost every Democrat holding office was going to help hand her the nom. Hers can't help them, though.