Does Bernie Drop Out if He Loses MI Tonight?

[firebrand80]

In any realistic scenario, if he can't win a state like Michigan, he has no shot. Strength in the rust belt could offset Hillary's dominance of the south, but there's no way he comes close to her by winning just in the Northeast and in the Plains.

Two questions will be answered tonight:

1. Does Bernie have a realistic shot at winning?
2. If not, will he drop out of the race once it's over for him, or is he staying in to the end on principle?

[awake]

5. +1000

[firebrand80]

8. Clinton would still have a path

I would be a huge blow of she lost, no doubt about it, but she could still realistically see herself bouncing back. Bernie, not so much.

[Kittycat]

21. Never. See you at the convention.

[yourpaljoey]

26. Yes, yes she will!!!!!

[Skwmom]

2. Two Words: FBI Primary n/t

[firebrand80]

9. That's four words nt

[Gwhittey]

20. ?

How is FBI Primary 4 words?

[firebrand80]

36. Take that one with you for homework nt

[auntpurl]

100. lol

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Three words.

"Keep hope alive."

[yourpaljoey]

29. Rou Roh

[Buzz Clik]

57. I find it interesting that so many of HRC's detractors compare her to people like Nixon and Bush...

.... but fully embrace the right wing smears against her.

Funny that.

[seekthetruth]

67. Right wing smears?

There's plenty of available smears out there with respect to Hillary, and they're valid. Now we can add to the list her support for fracking.

A progressive she is not. And you Hillary supporters still don't get why she's so unappealing to the rest of us Democrats?

[marions ghost]

76. Definitely Hillary supports fracking despite her weasel words...

http://fortune.com/2016/03/07/hillary-clintons-pledge-to-limit-fracking-falls-on-unconvinced-ears/

“Sometimes things said in the heat of a debate are later wisely set aside when faced with the economic and national security consequences of shutting down the technique that unlocks huge domestic sources of energy that would otherwise have to come from Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran,” she said.

[Shadowflash]

103. Smears?

You mean documented historical facts in the record?

[Buzz Clik]

105. No, the smears.

[morningfog]

3. 1. Not clearly. 2. Hell no, not dropping.

[tazkcmo]

3. No n/t

[Punkingal]

6. Nope.

[Jester Messiah]

7. Never. n/t

[cherokeeprogressive]

10. What part of "in until the convention" don't you understand?

[FSogol]

16. "In until the convention" is the type of a statement a candidate makes before dropping out.

The math is against him and his wins haven't been by big enough margins to overcome his deficit. If the Democrats had winner-take-all states like the GOP, it might be different.

[firebrand80]

19. Depends on what your definition of "in" is

I could declare myself eligible for the NFL draft. However, since I haven't played football since my freshman year in high school and wasn't even any good back then, I'm not really "in" the draft.

[cherokeeprogressive]

23. Ummmmkay.

[metroins]

80. Lol.

[In_The_Wind]

11. Nope, he does not drop out.

[FSogol]

12. He'll drop out between March 16 and March 23. n/t

[restorefreedom]

14. in until the convention, as much as it gives some the sadz nt

[FSogol]

25. I don't care if he wants to remain in, but I don't see it happening.

And I am currently not sad at him staying in. He has helped to push the party to the left.

[bkkyosemite]

91. and it will go right back to the right

[FSogol]

92. Nope. n/t

[morningfog]

17. There is nothing that will happen between now and then

to fundamentally change the race. That is an arbitrary date and totally meaningless.

Hilary's folks were saying he wounldnt last until March 1. Then they were saying March 2 was the drop date. They said he'd win only one state, then they said two. He has won 8 and will win more.

Drop out date predictions from Hilary's side are not reality based and have repeatedly been wrong.

[FSogol]

39. Nothing except:

the Florida, Illinois, Missouri, NC, Ohio, Idaho, Arizona, Utah primaries and caucuses. That's 941 delegates.

[morningfog]

58. Which will be split proportionally. Again, Bernie is trialing now, he will likely be trailing then,

but HIllary will not have clinched it. There will still be half the states to go. No fundamental change.

[hack89]

71. There is a fundamental change though

the margin of victories Bernie would need to overtake and then win would become unrealistic. He is not going to suddenly start blowing out Hillary in large diverse states. You are right in one regard - there has been no fundamental change in Bernie's campaign and his message. Things are not going to change for Bernie without that change.

Being in a big hole is a big problem for Bernie - it means that winning is not good enough. He has to win by big margins in big diverse states. He has not shown he can do that.

[restorefreedom]

13. will hillary if she loses? nt

[yourpaljoey]

32. She MUST be defeated ASAP

[restorefreedom]

110. hopefully before a very ugly convention. nt

[Nonhlanhla]

15. I don't think he should or would

I think he will take it to the end, even though his path to the nomination is narrowing, because he would like to strengthen the movement that supports his ideas. I actually think that is a good thing. I do hope that as it becomes clear to him that she is almost certainly going to be the nominee, that he will stop the negative attacks. No reason to give ammunition to the GOP.

[Logical]

27. Nice post but he needs to keep on hillary about progressive issues! Nt

[djean111]

28. His "negative attacks" are factual. And - the GOP has been saving up the real "negative attacks"

for many years. It is foolish to think that they are not armed and ready. They hate her.

Why is Hillary actually going with real lying negative attacks?

[Nonhlanhla]

34. No, a lot of it isn't quite factual

But are distortions of her record, plus innuendos.

[monicaangela]

18. LOL!!!

I can answer that question:

[Logical]

22. He needs to stay in and keep hitting hillary on real progressive issues! Nt

[HERVEPA]

30. Geez. You really don't pay attention, do you?

[vintx]

31. The minute he does I'm switching my lifelong Dem status to Independent.

You know it's funny, in the past I've been the one going around saying we have to vote for the Dem in the GE, because SCOTUS.

This candidacy with all it's Rovian smears and dirty tricks has finally done it for me.

[Godhumor]

33. Doubtful. I don't think it will even come up until

After NY.

He will have a favorable stretch after the 15th, and he would and should argue that it is important to wait until after he sees whether that momentum helps him carry NY. If he can't, then the last, and highly unlikely, path to nomination is closed off.

Math tells the story, but the thing with probabilities is that you never know when you're going to land on the long shot to win.

[kennetha]

35. No, but he'll become invisible

he's going to get creamed in the industrial Midwest, but his rabid supporters will keep pouring good money after bad. Thing is nobody will care. His free media will dry up completely. He's toast -- yesterday's news.

[Human101948]

46. Yes, if only we had that good Goldman Sachs money to depend on...

Why is it you Hillary fans love that corporate baksheesh?

It will make it impossible to change the status quo.

[JohnnyLib2]

37. This OP gets extra points for bravery or something.

Answer: no

[noamnety]

38. no, and I look forward to 15 more threads today on this topic. (nt)

[winter is coming]

72. Yeah, but the 16th? I'm killing that fucker with fire. n/t

[Octafish]

40. Why should he?

Is he under threat of indictment, too?

[Lizzie Poppet]

43. You pick that mic right back up!

[deutsey]

62. Hey-o!

[Lizzie Poppet]

41. He's stated explicitly that he's in for the nomination.

I guess I can understand why some might think he'll flip-flop on that, given their choice of candidate. It's what they expect (and seemingly aren't bothered by).

I doubt if Bernie ever expected to take Michigan. Demographics there strongly favor Hillary. He's looking for at least a decent proportional delegate haul. Many have said all along that due to the primary schedule, Bernie won't start catching up until after the 15th. I suspect, however, that the early momentum afforded Hillary's campaign by the schedule may depress the Bernie vote just enough for her to win. Some will think it's hopeless.

[firebrand80]

50. Which states do you think he can

catch up in?

[onecaliberal]

61. California 700+ delegates.

Clintons under investigation as we speak, she's the one who has no business even running.

[hack89]

104. How many delegates will he win in California? nt

[Trust Buster]

42. It was reported this morning that Tad Devine, Sanders campaign manager,

has floated the idea recently of a Clinton/Sanders ticket. HE understands the numbers. Of course, Hillary couldn't consider a 74 year old V.P. By next Tuesday, all will become clear.

[Lizzie Poppet]

44. That ticket would win in November by an historic margin.

But I'm by no means convinced Bernie would accept (or if Hillary's paymasters would allow it).

[Trust Buster]

47. It's Sanders' campaign manager who is floating the idea.

We cannot have a 69 year old / 74 year old ticket.

[Lizzie Poppet]

52. Yeah, and that surprised me.

Does it indicate Bernie's interest, I wonder...or was it just the CM speculating?

[firebrand80]

49. I believe we call that "bargaining" nt

[PWPippin]

84. That was said jokingly when first mentioned. I didn't hear it this morning.

However, should Bernie consider someone quite far to his right as VP who will in two years be in her 70's and may incur even more memory losses as she ages?

[Adrahil]

85. I think she COULD consider Sanders as Veep....

I mean, why not?

However, I think he would not be a good choice. One of the main jobs of the Veep is to build support for the President's agenda. I don;t think Sanders would be very good at that. For one thing, he is not known as being a coalition builder in Congress (one of his greatest weaknesses, IMO) and also, I think he would have trouble committing himself to her agenda. He is a main driven by ideals and passion... not exactly the best qualities for a political deal broker.

[Trust Buster]

89. C'mon, a 69 and 74 year old on the same ticket ?

[Adrahil]

95. Sure. People live much longer these days....

and neither Clinton or Sanders seem like they are withering on the trail.

However, I think it's a moot point. She will pick someone else.

[navarth]

45. Dream on, Turd Way.

[Gwhittey]

48. I think

and this is just way I see it. If I was Sanders I might of if this campaign was run fairly. Ok even with the DNC changing debates to favor Hillary, DNC not running a Get Out the Vote drives because it would Hurt Hillary, the media machine from start not even trying to be overtly bias. If he ignoring all those things as just politics, the Karl Rove like dirt tricks. The way her camp made it seem Sanders was a racist is a insult. That man is better man than me. And that is something I have never been able to say about someone I could vote for. HRC not so much, I mean if I was offered the amount of money she is I know dam well I would do same thing and screw everyone else, I would take the money. That is why a my vote for Sanders is a vote for a man that is a lot better than me.

[Protalker]

51. Billionaire Bloomberg not running

He called off his bid because he sees Cruz as the competition. Can you imagine his SCOTUS picks? We need independents to win. I learned as a gay man the need for straight support to win the argument.

[Buzz Clik]

53. Of course not. He's waiting for Hillary to win a non-Southern state.

[firebrand80]

99. Like Massachusetts? nt

[Jarqui]

54. Why should he drop out with email indictments likely on the horizon?

I wouldn't go anywhere until that plays out. Laws were broken. Someone on Hillary's team is going to take the fall for that. It's not going to come out nearly as rosy as Hillary claims. And it won't be the GOP's fault on this one.

[Buzz Clik]

60. You waiting for that? It isn't coming.

The FBI's involvement is to study various security aspects, not HRC's "criminal activity."

[Jarqui]

79. You think the FBI is going to try to stand there as say no laws were broken

after what has come out? It's almost impossible from what I've seen.

When Bill Clinton Pardoned His Former CIA Director over Classified Documents on His Home Computer

How can the FBI make the case that Hillary didn't do what the past CIA director was convicted of? Classified documents have been found on her server at home - unauthorized. And she had to have known they would with retroactive classification if nothing else.

And even if the FBI and Justice department were dumb enough to try that, do you think the GOP Senate and House are going to sit idly by that? They'll be threatening impeachment if she gets elected - and as of right now, they have the numbers and the case to pull impeachment off.

They will be going to the American public claiming the Dems are asking America to elect a criminal and under the criminal laws, they'll have a darn good argument. She signed a non disclosure agreement agreeing to abide by the very criminal laws that have been broken - so she can'y claim she didn't know - even though negligence is not a legal excuse for this anyway.

The GOP are playing it smart right now. Laying in the weeds. Let Hillary get the nomination and then nail her. Their candidate will have a cake walk to the White House.

And further, why has the Clinton Foundation been subpoenaed for information on their donors that also got help from the State Department. How does that fit with "to study various security aspects"? Donating to the Clinton Foundation when Hillary's State Department helped entities out is a security problem? I don't think so. You are lamely whitewashing those subpoenas but fooling no one.

[Hoyt]

55. Sanders was an irritant when he tried to hurt Obama in 2012, I suspect he hasn't changed.

[MineralMan]

56. He won't drop out. That's silly.

Now, if you ask about March 15, I think it's entirely possible that the results we'll all be able to see the next day will demonstrate that there is no path available to him to end up as the nominee. On March 16, Bernie Sanders will have to look at the situation and make a decision about whether or not to continue actual campaigning or to stop doing that.

If he decides to stop, I expect he'll make a statement endorsing Hillary Clinton. If he doesn't, he'll wait until the convention to endorse her. I don't know Senator Sanders, so I can't predict how he will react to the March 15 results. I know how I'd react, though, and my reaction would be to try to convince my supporters to work toward a Democratic victory in November. Bernie, better than most, understands what a disaster having Republicans in control of all three branches of government would be.

But, no, he's not going to withdraw after today's contests. There's no statistical reason for him to do that.

[Boomer]

59. I don't want a concession

I want Sanders to reach the convention with as large a delegate block as he can muster and use that as leverage to jolt the DNC out of its complacency.

[deutsey]

63. +1

Agreed.

[DinahMoeHum]

64. No.

n/t

[RufusTFirefly]

65. For every thread I see that asks this, I'll make another contribution to Bernie

Who's with me?

Boom!
Another contribution.
Bernie thanks you for asking!

[Trust Buster]

66. If Sanders continues to attack Hillary when it becomes clear that she will be the nominee,

then this Independent turned Democrat will not be allowed to have a major roll at the convention. To continue to attack the presumptive nominee would be selfish and unnecessarily destructive. He'll have a decision to make.

[AtomicKitten]

75. "Everyone knows Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June."

[Trust Buster]

78. A sad post. I said "If Sanders continues to attack her AFTER IT BECOMES CLEAR THE SHE'S THE NOMINEE"

RFK was winning in June. A sad analogy.

[AtomicKitten]

83. It was clear it was mathematically impossible for her to beat Obama in March.

But she stayed in punching Obama citing Bobby Kennedy's assassination in June as her reason for staying in and refusing to concede when the last vote was cast in June.

In other words, Hillary fans have got nothing on this subject.

[Trust Buster]

87. She was much closer in the delegate count than is Sanders.

Sanders is an Independent. If he wants to play a role at the convention, he better not try to damage Hillary for destructive motives after she becomes the clear nominee.

[AtomicKitten]

90. A possible impending indictment is damage she inflicted on herself.

And another excellent reason for him to stay in.

[Waiting For Everyman]

68. All the votes in all the states deserve to be counted.

Why doesn't HIllary want all to be included?

[leftynyc]

82. Leave it up to a DUer

to assume what one person stating an opinion on the site equals the candidate thinking the exact same thing. I also remember 2008 far too clearly to forget that far too many on DU only want to wait for all the votes when their favored candidate is losing.

[Waiting For Everyman]

93. It isn't me, Hillary is pushing to be declared the nominee now.

It sure looked like her saying that on CNN.

Nice try, no cigar.

[leftynyc]

94. She's stating the freeking obvious

The less time she has to spend on Bernie, the more she can spend on beating the republicans. It's not rocket science.

[Waiting For Everyman]

97. Oh, so it wasn't just me floating a meme about her

that she wants to end the Primary? Check, so who are you arguing with, yourself?

[leftynyc]

98. Oy vey

Everything is a fucking nefarious scheme with some people. Even stating the obvious. Carry on with your fantasies, I have no desire to force you to face reality.

[Autumn]

69. No he does not drop out. He is in it till the end. nt

[bigwillq]

70. No

I feel he will continue to June, and I hope he does, but he won't be the nominee.

[myrna minx]

73. Nope! Thanks - that reminds me to send him another contribution.

I find all of these debates and town halls very illuminating.

[One of the 99]

74. No.

Why should he? As long as he has the money to continue he should keep going. He is bringing up important issues.

[SidDithers]

77. I think he stays in to the end...

but after next Tuesday, his will be a Campaign-in-name-only.

The writing was on the wall after Super Tuesday. He'll fall farther behind today, and next Tuesday will cement the nomination for Clinton.

Sid

[Adrahil]

81. Nope.

I can see him scaling back a bit after the 15th, but I don't think he will formally suspend his campaign.

[mmonk]

86. Of course not. He is the only candidate representing

the people and with that carries great responsibility.

[Kelvin Mace]

88. Concern troll is concerned.

[Matariki]

96. Does Michigan use Diebold touch screens?

[longship]

106. Paper ballots. Mark sense. nt

[Matariki]

109. thx

[Merryland]

101. No no no no no

there are still between 1000 & 2000 delegates up for grabs, right? Why should he drop out?

[tularetom]

102. Does Clinton drop out if she loses MI tonight?

Ask a stupid question and you get a stupid response.

[Attorney in Texas]

107. Wait...didn't Hillary already drop out after her embarrassing losses in Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine?

[lumberjack_jeff]

108. You've already heard his answer. n/t