Michigan could be game-changer for Clinton and Sanders

[SecularMotion]

Michigan voters may decide on Tuesday whether Bernie Sanders is a continued threat to Hillary Clinton’s bid for the Democratic presidential nomination or more of a protest candidate.

A loss in the Great Lakes State would portend weakness in other big industrial states like Ohio and lend credibility to the Clinton campaign’s argument that he’s unable to rebuild the diverse coalition of voters who powered Barack Obama to the presidency.

But a win in Michigan could give Sanders renewed momentum heading into other critical contests this month.

The Vermont senator, having lost by huge margins to Clinton in the South, has fallen far enough behind in convention delegates that he’d have to bag three-fifths of remaining delegates just to break even with Clinton, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Delegates are divided proportionally in each state based on the primary results.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/08/michigan-primary-clinton-sanders-democrats/81489774/

[itsrobert]

1. True

n/t

[JaneyVee]

2. So Bernie needs to win 65% of the rest of delegates...

Just to break even? Impossible.

[femmedem]

6. Three fifths is 60%, not 65% n/t

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. If Sanders wins Michigan, even by a small margin, it's a very big deal

Just saying.

Sanders people have been very silly to downplay Clinton's massive wins in the South. The margins have really put pressure on Sanders elsewhere. Had he put a dent in some of those Southern margins, he would be much better off.

But Clinton people would similarly be silly not to see a Michigan loss as a giant red flag.

Big night tonight.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. That has been my read as well

and the back of the envelope math is not even 65 percent of delegates. that includes supers

If he wins, by a couple percentage points, supers will start to mull the future

[NurseJackie]

4. This tells the story right here ...

{Sanders} has fallen far enough behind in convention delegates that he’d have to bag three-fifths of remaining delegates just to break even with Clinton...

That's all anyone needs to know. He's simply NOT going to be able to pull it off. This contest is all but over when you look at the numbers and DO THE MATH. Officially over? No, of course not. But it's clear that Bernie will not be the nominee.

[JudyM]

7. I am getting more and more pissed that she's refusing to let voters see what she said to the banks.

It's central to the issues that separate them, and she wants us to vote blindly.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

8. Deliberately refusing to help Sanders and then the Republicans beat her? Shameful!

Anyone would think she actually wanted to be president...

[JudyM]

9. Deliberately keeping wraps on a matter that is likely to hand over the GE to the rethugs? How very

like her.

Win at any cost. Sell the country out to mega-corporations and other big money. She is one ethical, classy SOB. The anitipathy of Dem values.

This is the first time I have ever come anywhere close to saying this, about any Dem candidate: even if I have no choice but to vote for her in November, she will not be my president.

She has crossed the line on too many issues that matter.

[eomer]

10. Intentionally misleading. Bernie actually needs about 53.5% of remaining *pledged* delegates.

The three-fifths claim comes from counting superdelegates, as the article explains it.

Here's the way the real race, which is a contest to win a majority of pledged delegates, breaks down as best I can tell:

Total pledged delegates: 4,051

Pledged delegates needed to win: 4,051 / 2 = 2,026

Pledged delegates decided so far:
Clinton: 663
Sanders: 459
O'Malley: 1?
Total: 1,123

Pledged delegates up for grabs: 4,051 - 1,123 = 2,928

Pledged delegates needed by Sanders: 2,026 - 459 = 1,567

Percentage needed by Sanders to clinch the pledged delegate contest: 1,567 / 2,928 = 53.5%

Pledged delegates needed by Clinton: 2,026 - 663 = 1,363

Percentage needed by Clinton to clinch the pledged delegate contest: 1,363 / 2,928 = 46.5%


Caveat: It's difficult to find the information needed for this kind of analysis since the MSM is intentionally not reporting on the pledged delegate race. So I may have an error in the above (like the number of pledged delegates O'Malley won?) and welcome any factual corrections.

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. It matches mine

This is why we are not counting supers

[eomer]

13. Thanks for confirming.

And also for all your great work!

[pat_k]

11. Hey, given polling in recent weeks, even just getting close is a WIN! (nt)