Clinton Will Build Her Biggest Lead on March 15. Bernie Sanders Will ERODE IT After That.

[kath]

Clinton Will Build Her Biggest Lead on March 15. Bernie Sanders Will ERODE IT After That.

I'm keeping this short to put a very simple idea into your head. Because of the way the Democratic Party voting calendar is structured this year, Clinton's largest lead will occur on March 15. After that, most of Sanders' strongest states will vote.

What this means is simple:

* Hillary Clinton will grow her lead until the March 15 states have voted.

* Bernie Sanders will erase that lead — partly or completely — after March 15.

* How much of Clinton's lead he will erase depends on your not buying what the media is selling — that the contest is over.

* In most scenarios where Sanders wins, he doesn't retake the lead until June 7, when five states including California cast their ballots.

March 15 is the Ides of March; a good way to remember the date. The message — gear up for a battle after the Ides of March, and don't let the establishment media tell you what to think. They won't be right until the last state has voted.

~snip~

Now the data. One of the best data-stitians I've come across is a diarist at Daily Kos named MattTX. Matt is very good, professionally good, at this stuff. In a long, carefully-reasoned diary, "How Bernie Sanders can win the Democratic nomination," he lays out six scenarios for the race, in five of which Bernie Sanders wins the nomination (the other is a current baseline with no momentum). He presents them in a parallel fashion, and each presentation differs only in changing a small set of assumptions. Once you understand how to read the first one, you can read the others easily.

~snip~

Bottom line — Super Tuesday is upon us, and what's bad for Sanders supporters on March 1 is going to look worse for a few weeks. Stay heartened. Whatever the result in March, this isn't over until June, after Sanders' best states have voted as well.


cont'

http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2016/03/clinton-will-build-her-biggest-lead-on.html

Thanks to Segami, who first posted this here.

Sooo sick of all the "today is make or break for Sanders" BULLSHIT being put out by the corporate M$M today. Bernie's best states are yet to come. Ignore the SPIN from the HRH campaign and the media assholes.

[FourScore]

1. Thanks Segami! And thanks, kath, for re-posting. n/t

[RoccoR5955]

2. That is why

People like Kos are demanding that Sanders supporters just give up and tow the line.
I will not give up until the bitter end.
NO SURRENDER, NO DEFEAT.
I shall work my butt off, getting people to the polls in my local area, and calling people all over, to get the most honest man I have ever seen run for president in my 60+ years, the nomination, and the presidency!

[amborin]

7. K&R

[onehandle]

3. Get used to saying 'President Hillary Clinton.' nt

[RoccoR5955]

8. More like president tRump! n/t

[kath]

9. Yes. She is unelectable - if she gets the nom, say hello to Prez Trump or another Repub in the WH.

[speaktruthtopower]

4. Michigan

should be a bellweather as to his prospects, and how much the media epitaph the past several weeks has hurt his chances.

He needs a secular lift of at least about 10 pts nationally to have a chance, and it will be very hard to get that unless he outperforms expectations tonight.

[hack89]

5. If he can't win Michigan he cannot win large diverse states

it is the perfect state for his message.

[Karma13612]

10. Thats what they said on the NBC evening news, almost word

for word.

I feel good about Michigan.
I think he knocked it out of the park in the Flint debate.

We shall see!!

[AzDar]

6. K & R

[brooklynite]

11. Name a LARGE State that Sanders can win post 3-15...

Idaho and Nor Dakota are nice, but they won't get him the delegates he needs.

[Alfresco]

12. After 3/15 the press will begin using the term "mathematically impossible" to describe his campaign.

[kath]

13. Kick! 'Cause the "it'll all be over by March 15" BULLSHIT is really strong today.

ignore the lying, bullshit SPIN.