2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThings are about to get tougher for Clinton
Take it with a grain or two of salt, but also from Nate Silver
"One reminder about the Democratic calendar: Although there are a lot of reasonably good Clinton states on March 15 according to both polls and demographics we then have a stretch of states that look quite strong for Sanders. These include Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Alaska, Washington, Hawaii, Wisconsin and Wyoming, all of which vote from March 22 to April 9.
So if Clinton underperforms her polls on March 15 in states such as Ohio as she did tonight in Michigan and pollsters probably ought to be checking their turnout models carefully after tonight she could have a really long few weeks ahead, even though Sanderss delegate math remains highly challenging."
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)If it was really the end, they wouldn't have to come out and tell us that.
It's not the end, they just want everyone to think that. March is still going to be very tough for Bernie, but it gets more favorable later.
TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)Can't win a nomination by losing the South by 40-50 points. Just a matter of when, not if at this point.
madokie
(51,076 posts)keep on sticking to that and weep
Bernie is on the rise and rising fast
Oh yes I about forgot to add. Hide and watch
TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)Sanders has a lot of good ideas and seems a lot more honorable than the Cluntons. But the math is not on his side. I accept the reality even if I strongly dislike the situation.
madokie
(51,076 posts)that you're going with, sorry
You really can't pick your realm of reality and expect it to be so. In this case its not proving to be at all.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)'the math' currently is standing red faced having just made wildly inaccurate predictions about Michigan with enormous certainty and not a hint of hesitation. 'The math' cited 1968, 1980 but failed to look out the window to see if it was raining today....
Masses of delegates are still out there. And Hillary's big, giant Mississippi victory was a primary with less than 250,000 people showing up to vote for her. Where, I ask you, is the excitement for her? I was told the South was devoted to her but her turnout has been abysmal, particularly when presented as her Ticket to the WH. Her strongest States should show some high numbers instead of a resignation of interest.....
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)...he needed to win 66% of the pledged delegates the rest of the way. Since he didn't get 66% of them last night, it means he needs an even higher percentage going forward. This is not a matter of conventional wisdom, it's just the math. I hate it, believe me. I don't want a corporate candidate like Clinton as the nominee.
The math is strongly in her favor. It doesn't help Bernie that the party bosses are completely in the Clinton camp. Even if he manages to win 70% of the remaining pledged delegates, I think the party elites will give it to Clinton.
BeyondGeography
(39,393 posts)Just kidding.
Hillary must be having a flashback. A similar stretch of primaries enabled Obama to defeat her, the big difference of course is she goes into it with a 200-delegate lead whereas, Obama, thanks to the South, already had a lead. Still don't see how Bernie does this.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)but it is the same pattern.
And how he does it., a few supers already are reconsidering. If he keeps winning more will. And he has the majority of regular delegates by the convention... they either give it to the winner of the vote, or they face a 1968 scenario.
That is how he does it.
I am saying this after sitting down and really doing a lot of back of the envelope math.
For the record, though she is getting more delegates, (yes that is the truth) this is also perception, and Sanders did over perform in MISS... it was supposed to be a shut out in delegate count.
Raster
(20,998 posts)...through the machinations of DWS and the DLC, the party will burn, and I don't mean Bern. I mean the Democratic Party as we know it would be toast.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)from a Political Reporter perspective, two brokered conventions, what's not to like As a citizen that is scary as hell.
Raster
(20,998 posts)BeyondGeography
(39,393 posts)Whoever wins the most pledged delegates wins. He has to rack up huge differentials in big states to catch up and the Clinton campaign will be smart about narrowing his margins wherever possible. Bottom line is it's very hard lose the South the way Bernie did (as Hillary knows from '08) and make up the difference later on.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)you asked. A lot of this early pledges (and the counts by media) are about perception.
They become a real issue on the floor.
But he does have a very narrow map, but a map nonetheless and winning today, he way out performed.
BeyondGeography
(39,393 posts)and it will make the next month a lot more interesting as a result, not least because of all the positive energy his supporters will get from it. It also has loads of implications for the front runner.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)also they had to get him out of the hotel room. This tells me they were not expecting this. I did, but that is becuase of the morning appearance by Granholm on CNN. Been doing this enough to know the internals sucked. I suspect everybody, and this includes both sides, did not expect it to be this bad for the Clintons. They are at times wrong, just ask President Romney.
madokie
(51,076 posts)Lies aren't working so what else does she have that people haven't already heard or seen? I ask/ What does she have to counter with?
BeyondGeography
(39,393 posts)Which she didn't do everywhere against Obama, particularly in the caucus states, like ID, where he won 15 of 18 delegates in '08. The latest polls from there show a two-point differential; you need 80 percent to net 12 delegates.
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,123 posts)It's time we turn our eyes to Bernie, the one authentic progressive candidate who can demolish Donald Chump.
Go Bernie!
Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)The question is how much of a margin can build between now and March 22.
Even though she lost Michigan today, she still picked up more raw votes than Bernie and more pledged delegates because of Mississippi.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)not very impressive. So much of the argument for her has been placed on this imagined massive and passionate support she has in the South but her support there is not strong enough to motivate much turnout. Her base, they seemed rather apathetic.....182,282 votes for her. 36,284 for Bernie.
When she's the top of the bill, the box office drops.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)I shudder at the propect. How cluess and selfish does she has to be not to see the cliff she is rushing toward - and then wanting to take the party with her as well?
pat_k
(9,313 posts)NCjack
(10,279 posts)would not help, as most of the new recruits vote for Bernie. The Hillary pivot to the GE looks doubtful.
Happenstance24
(193 posts)he starts winning by bigger margins. They split the MI delegates tonight due to a 1.7% difference. It's still a tie when Bernie eeks out the win, right?
John Poet
(2,510 posts)as he won more congressional districts in Michigan.
Current count is 69-61
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MI-D
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Because it will take a tad for all, including the Rs to come in
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)Now that can't happen.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)and no one listened! People here have been saying for weeks that Hillary's strongest states were early and then Bernie would bounce back towards the end of March and into April.
These dumb pundits need to start following some of the smart people that we have here.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,123 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,123 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Now is when the vetting starts. And this time, the questions aren't Benghazi-committee nonsense she can brush off. This is about integrity (she has none), policies (she has the wrong ones) and leadership (she is a follower). Sucks to be Clinton.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,123 posts)And that doesn't bode well for Hillary.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!