2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWell this is interesting. Hillary actually expanded her popular vote lead today
She now has a lead of over 1.6 million.
RCP aggregates the totals:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)She might win in a squeaker with Ohio. But, that's about it for Hillary.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)...which is pretty cool.
Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)Sanders scored a BIG win tonight, and has the momentum on his side, which I don't mind congratulating. Although, I still prefer HRC for the nomination and I'm not concerned that she'll lose any ground. She will still win the nomination in the end.
In the meantime - let's give Bernie and supporters their proper's for this win.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)....she will actually net more pledged delegates today.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)The GE is won...this is not a direct election.
This is a fine point I had to explain at RSD, because quite frankly we give two shits about that. The only thing we care is delegates. Oh we don't care about supers though. She got more today than he did. His win in MI though is critical for the perception game.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Bernie would have closed the gap considerably.
But because it's a system of proportional allocation, he needs large wins to start closing the gap.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)He needs large wins in large states to close the gap.
Doing it in small states won't work because there aren't enough delegates.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)...the math is changing. Don't live in the past.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Everybody plays by the same rules as far as that is concerned
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)because those caucus states don't disclose the raw vote.
Hillary won Iowa and Nevada while Bernie won Maine.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Oh, wait, you did suggest this number was a popular vote total when it was not -- in fact -- a popular vote total.
Moreover, there is no indication (and -- to the contrary -- there is contraindication) that Hillary got more votes in Iowa or Nevada or Maine. Sanders almost certainly had more supporters show up in Iowa and Maine and probably Nevada, too
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Where's your evidence of that?
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)and Sanders in 2016) usually wins university caucuses by very large margins with lots of participants, but these caucuses count the same as caucuses with sparse participation.
There were lots of reports of overwhelming turnout for Sanders at Iowa universities. Given the narrow margin of her win in Iowa, Sanders likely had more supporters. In Nevada, there were similar anecdotal reports (but not as many as we saw in Iowa).
In any event, the number you are floating as a popular vote total is not in fact a popular vote total.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)....how did he lose those caucuses?
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)precincts (e.g., like when a candidate is especially popular among college students), that support is under counted because if 7 people show up at that precinct to caucus the precinct may be allocated 100% to the candidate who has just 6 supporters but if 700 people show up and 600 caucus for the candidate, the precinct is allocated just the same.
karynnj
(59,503 posts)It was a HRC distraction in 2008. I do not get why you float this in 2016 when she is ahead in pledged delegates that are proportional to the TOTAL votes in earlier Presidential races.
The fact is the south was front loaded this year. HRC is the most likely nominee, but it is also true that Bernie is likely to do better in the west where only Nevada has voted and the Midwest where only michigan. Iowa and Minnesota have voted.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... it must be a "media conspiracy"!
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)vote total available to us. Entire States lack raw voter totals. But it's an A for effort on a morning that has to be almost as hard on you as it must be on Nate.