Where the Delegate Math Now Stands

[SecularMotion]

Clinton extended her lead despite Michigan loss

(Newser) – There was plenty of drama in Tuesday's voting, with triple victories for Donald Trump and a stunning win for Bernie Sanders in Michigan. There were fewer surprises, however, in the delegate math at the end of the night, which leaves both front-runners on course to win their respective nominations. Clinton's delegate lead is not only intact but extended despite the loss in Michigan, according to the Hill. She won 32 delegates in Mississippi to just five for Sanders, per Politico, and will take 58 delegates from Michigan while Sanders gets 65. Counting 461 superdelegates, that gives Clinton 1,221, more than halfway to the 2,383 needed to win the nomination, while Sanders is at 571.

http://www.newser.com/story/221786/where-the-delegate-math-now-stands.html

[NurseJackie]

1. Excellent news!

[NCTraveler]

2. +1

Ohio will be interesting to say the least.

[cwydro]

3. k and r!

[rock]

4. As one of the BS crowd posted

"It's a wonderful day in the neighborhood!" (For Hillary) -- With every win for Sanders, Clinton draws further away.

[MillennialDem]

10. There are only a few states left where we know she's going to pull ahead - hell, maybe

only 1 left (south carolina and possibly florida, but after last night damn anything can happen).

He's going to need to put some big beatdowns on her in the northeast and out west if the midwest continues to be duels. But it's absolutely possible. He crushed her in New Hampshire and Vermont.

[rock]

34. No, anything can not happen (from a practical point of view)

In particular her changes in the large states are quite good and she's halfway there, Bernie is a quarter of the way there. Saying anything can happen and talking of probabilities that are worse than in the lottery is not ... er, helpful.

[MillennialDem]

38. She is not halfway there. She's at 762/2026 = 37.6% of the way there. He's at 544/2026 = 26.9% of

the way there.

[rock]

45. Yeah let's NOT count super-delegates

We might embarrass ourselves.

[CorkySt.Clair]

35. South Carolina voted 2 weeks ago

I agree, his win in Vermont was very, very important.

[MillennialDem]

37. My bad, NORTH carolina.

[tgards79]

39. This is actually evidence that it is impossible

Vermont = home state white people
New Hampshire = next door white people
Rest of US = not next door, lots of minorities
Yet, he has to win like NH (60/40) everywhere to overcome her
Wake up, folks! It's over!

[MillennialDem]

40. 54%

[morningfog]

5. She netted an additional 20 on the night. 6 contests since ST,

She has lost 4 states and gained only 20 delegates. And she's quickly running out of southern states.

[MillennialDem]

11. 17 not 20

[morningfog]

13. Green Papers has it at 20.

MI 69-61 (B +8)
MS 4-32 (H +28)

Total net H +20

Current PD count: H-769; B-552

Hillary is up 217. She was up 197 going into last night.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

[MillennialDem]

15. Saw somewhere else where Bernie had 5 in Mississippi and 71 in MI.

[Dragonfli]

6. Super delegates always vote proportionate with the earned rather than purchased or threatened by the

fear of political assassination and enemy list they may find themselves on delegates.

If the pre-paid or threatened delegates choose to steal a nomination as you are suggesting, they KNOW they will destroy the party from within.

Even if the voter's delegates are overruled by some of the purchased ones, it will lead to far too many loses of Democrats who will feel they have been cheated out of their democracy when it comes time for them to vote in the GE, which will cost her dearly assuring a Pyrrhic victory and the loss of any chance at the Presidency.

This is a new game being played just for this election by an establishment that has decided to force a candidate down our throats.

I hope you stop using the new propaganda math and count only the voted delegates she is leading by like every other election has, or I will have to consider if your character is worth respecting any more than Hillary's ability to be considered honest by the overall public (3/4 of Americans believe she is a dishonest liar if you did not know)

Thank you in advance.
for changing your op accordingly and listing only her voted for by the people delegate lead.

[MillennialDem]

12. Aren't the superdelegates just a check on the frontrunner having a meltdown / scandal?

[Dragonfli]

17. In a way you are sort of correct, they are there as a check to keep a complete lunatic out

Somebody say like Donald Trump. Also in case I suppose say a front runner is indicted for a high crime by the FBI or such cases as that.

[MillennialDem]

18. I was only 7-8 at the time, but would the superdelegates have changed course on say, Gary Hart had

his scandal been revealed in June but refused to drop out?

[Dragonfli]

21. That is a good question, but since it never came to that, one we will never know the answer to

But we can guess, and I suppose such may have been the case in order for the party to have at least some chance of winning with someone else, as he would almost surely have lost because of it.

But we can really only guess at something that didn't actually happen.

[restorefreedom]

7. nope. 760 to 546 pledged. supers will,support the winner

with all the states left, and many of those states liking bernie, this is an open contest wih bernie lookin good.

nice try for newser, though. a for effort.

[MillennialDem]

23. Bernie needs to win just under 54% of the remaining delegates.

[restorefreedom]

24. thanks for the hard number. very doable! nt

[MillennialDem]

25. Even better hard numbers: he needs to win 1482 out of the remaining 2745

[restorefreedom]

27. wow, lots of ground left to cover! nt

[tgards79]

42. Not really..

She is going to win Florida and NC and NY big. He needs the rest 60/40.

Even 54 is a stretch. He was lucky to win Michigan 50/48.

It ain't happening.

[MillennialDem]

44. The math is actually just under 54% as of right now. We'll address what is after March 15th.

[tgards79]

41. They have to like Bernie 60/40

Assuming you concede NC, Florida and NY to Hillary

[restorefreedom]

43. actually its closer to low 50s

concede ny and nc to hillary?? ha, no way. she has an edge in florida, but ny is in play and maybe nc too. both could be big bernie states esp ny

[DesertRat]

8. K&R

[Uponthegears]

9. So

I guess it would be fair to say that, IF Hillary wins the nomination, it will ONLY be because she won the hearts and minds of voters who are GUARANTEED not to be able to deliver their state for the Democratic Party (and I mean in most EVERY election at the local, state, and federal level) during the GE.

Well, no wonder Hillary supporters are feeling good this morning.

[Cobalt Violet]

14. too bad for her she's nearly fresh out of southern states!

Go Bernie!

[Nuclear Unicorn]

16. Losing the popular vote but winning the delegates is not democratic.

That so many are cheering a rigged system shows just how much the rot has infected us.

[Dragonfli]

19. The rot does not go much beyond the fan boys/girls and those financially invested to a large degree.

Which is why if they try it, it will at the very least assure that Democrats that feel cheated of their Democracy will refuse to vote for her costing her the General Election, and at worst pretty much destroy the party.

[MineralMan]

20. Here is the popular vote after yesterday:

Clinton, Hillary Diane Rodham 5,017,175 58.79%
Sanders, Bernard "Bernie" 3,372,217 39.51%

Those are the numbers:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

[Dragonfli]

26. Elections are not won by popular vote, perhaps same day it will be and maybe even should be.

But we live in a Republic and as such at the moment we are represented by those we vote for, like delegates.

You appear to be advocating for a pure Democracy over a Republic, an intriguing idea I must admit, but one that would require rewriting most of the constitution.

It would also make daily legislation quite arduous and impracticable, but I will say that because of obstructionism it may not be a bad idea even if we all do have to spend half our days voting on various laws enacted locally, statewide, and federally, we might even get more accomplished LOL. Republicans do suck that so much at doing their jobs sometimes doing absolutely nothing that such questions don't appear as mad as once they did.

[TexasMommaWithAHat]

28. It's a sad day when Republicans have a fairer system of choosing their candidate

than Democrats.

Just sad.

[MineralMan]

29. I'm not advocating anything.

The poster I replied to commented about the popular vote, so I posted the actual numbers. What people make of that is up to them. Some seem to be laboring under the misconception that Sanders is ahead in the popular vote and that the results will not reflect that vote. That is not the case, and they will reflect that popular vote.

As for pure democracy, that is not the system we have, and it is very unlikely to ever be the system here. I'm certainly not advocating it. I'm simply posting the numbers.

[Dragonfli]

30. I apologize, I misunderstood you, rereading the post you responded to it makes sense now. /nt

[MineralMan]

31. No apology needed. I'm always happy to clarify my posts

if needed.

[Uponthegears]

33. Quite impressive

and important.

However, since the national popular vote does not determine who will be our next president AND there are certain states where the Democratic candidate simply will not garner ANY electoral votes, I thought it might be interesting to look at the popular vote from only those states who will be contributing the electoral college total for Democratic Party candidate. If I added correctly, it looks like this:

Clinton, Hillary Diane Rodham 1160654

Sanders, Bernard "Bernie" 1246285

Obviously, we do not want to exclude Democratic voters from the primary process simply because they are unable to deliver ANY electoral votes for the Democratic candidate in November (or, for that matter, are unable to deliver Democratic majorities at the local or state level), but it is at least interesting to compare the candidates' relative strength in those states which will contribute to a Democratic victory in November.

[MineralMan]

36. The thing is that a number of states are pretty much a sure

thing for any Democrat who is the nominee. Others are sure things for any Republican (except maybe Trump).

The actual general election depends on just a few states, really. Right now, we're only able to deal with the primary contests. I'm not really counting electoral votes at this time. Much will depend on who the Republicans nominate. If they end up with a brokered convention, it could be someone we're not even thinking much about. That could change everything.

If Trump ends up as the nominee, I predict a general election landslide for the Democrat, whoever it is. We have that advantage, right now. If the GOP brings in a ringer at the convention, that could change really fast, though.

[great white snark]

22. K&R