Bernie will win Missouri, Illinois and Ohio...

[SheenaR]

Last edited Tue Mar 15, 2016, 09:46 PM - Edit history (1)

This was unthinkable just a week ago. And I'm not afraid to put my neck out there to say it and eat humble pie if wrong.

This will happen and Clinton will still come out with +30-35 delegates and that will be the obvious ridiculous spin. Even though pre-Michigan and still on 538 she was a lock to win all 5 and increase her lead by over 100

Bernie will then win the next 8 setting up a huge NY, PA battle.

My predictions

Mo- Sanders 56-44
IL- Sanders 52-48
OH- Sanders 51-49
NC- Clinton 54-46
FL Clinton 60-40

And going forward she will win no more than 3 states after tomorrow.

Like I said. If wrong, I'll come back for the abuse

Feel free to add your own

See post 31 for Update and congratulations

[highprincipleswork]

1. Thanks! And either way, GOTV Bernie. https://go.berniesanders.com/page/content/phonebank

[SheenaR]

2. All I've been doing for weeks now n/t

[roguevalley]

17. McCaskill said he would never win mo. I can't wait

[Barack_America]

3. I think those numbers look reasonable.

I actually wonder if FL and NC might end up being closer.

[Funtatlaguy]

4. Yes, please.

I would take these numbers in a heartbeat.
And, I'd bet Bernies campaign would too.
Hope ur right!

[jillan]

5. No! Don't jinx it!! I am very superstitious about counting your chickens before their hatched.

[SheenaR]

6. Using my predictive abilities

You were nervous when the Mich results were coming and there were no jinxes

If we all don't work to GOTV today those numbers are meaningless

[jillan]

8. I am always nervous when I want something so badly.

About GOTV - I'm concentrating on my own state which votes next week. (AZ) Bernie was winning in the polls now it looked like she took over.

[BernieforPres2016]

7. I think your numbers are in the right neighborhood

I think Bernie might win by slightly higher margins than you project in Illinois and Ohio. Bernie said yesterday he thinks he will win "several" states tomorrow. Several means at least three in my book. I don't think Bernie would have said that without some internal polling data. His internal polling data had him losing a very close race in Michigan. Based on that data point, his polling is more accurate than the consensus but not overoptimistic.

Here is what Nate Silver, wildly overrated poll aggregator who had Hillary at over 99% to win Michigan, had on his 538 website as of last night:

Florida 67.6% to 29.4%. Odds of Hillary winning >99%
North Carolina 63% to 33.7% Odds of Hillary winning >99%
Ohio 58.9% to 38.4% Odds of Hillary winning 98%
Illinois 56.2% to 40.8% Odds of Hillary winning 95%
Missouri 51.9% to 43.7% Odds of Hillary winning 81%

To illustrate what garbage the state polls are right now, there have been 4 polls in Illinois that were done in March and which Silvers mashes together to form Hillary's 95% "probability" to win Illinois tomorrow: Clinton +37, Clinton +42. Clinton +6, and Sanders +2.

If there is any valid science to polling anymore, how can 4 polls in the same state within days of each other produce results that vary that widely?

[MisterP]

9. cautious, hesitant, not-letting-yourself-get-excited-yet optimism:

that's the Sanders way

[demwing]

10. And still, Clinton can't win outside the South

Apparently, Iowa agrees, even if a little late...

[BumRushDaShow]

11. So Massachusetts is in "the south"?

[druidity33]

13. No, but i'm suspicious of her win here. nt

[BumRushDaShow]

14. Because it doesn't fit the prevailing assertion?

I guess Nevada is "south" too?

I don't think the Mason-Dixon Line extended over that far.





Or better -

[Enthusiast]

21. Me too.

[Chan790]

18. Her win in MA was so marginal that it, like MI and IA, should really be considered a functional tie.

I don't really buy the argument that there has to be a winner or loser in a proportional primary process...in the end, if the vote is close, the resulting assignment of delegates is even or nearly so...none of these virtual-ties are going to decide the nomination, they're not even going to be a factor.

The functional outcome isn't a win...it's a tie. It's time we recognized that as reality. Ties aren't moving the needle either way.

[BumRushDaShow]

23. I wasn't the one making the assertion

about a candidate supposedly unable to "win outside of the south" when there were 3 "non-southern" states mentioned that were "won" including Nevada.

But agree that when it comes to proportional allocation of delegates, as Clinton discovered in 2008, having larger margins (and thus larger numbers of delegates assigned) - notably in larger delegate-rich states - makes a difference as the primary season goes on.

[Lorien]

24. Shenanigans

and you damn well know it.

[BumRushDaShow]

28. Oh please.

And I am an Obama supporter who will support whichever Democratic candidate gets the nomination at the convention (which is being hosted right here in my city), without the bullshit conspiracy theories.

In both 2008 & 2012, DUers swore that the GOP would hands-down "steal" the election. So I take much of the CT assertions on this site with tons of salt.

[AikenYankee]

12. Hope you are correct!! nt

[MineralMan]

15. While making predictions is a fun game,

I don't see the point of it this close to the actual elections. We'll know the results tomorrow night or Wednesday. Our predictions won't really matter. I'll wait to see how it turns out, instead.

[Punkingal]

22. It's fun is the point.

[Recursion]

26. You don't ever play pooh sticks?

Or bet on which pigeon jumps first?

It's fun, MM!

[Omaha Steve]

16. I said the same thing this AM

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511488320

[oasis]

19. "Humble pie" in the sky.

[Enthusiast]

20. Kicked and recommended! I agree!

Voters are feeling the Bern!

[Recursion]

25. I think IL will be closer, like down to the wire hanging-chad closer

But, other than that, I see about the same forecast you do.

[aaaaaa5a]

27. Good post. I'll admit I didn't think it was

Possible 2 months ago. I still think it's unlikely.

But right now is there a chance? Yea, there is a chance.

The issue for Sandees remains delegates. Even in this best case scenario, he still loses the delegate count. Delegates nominate Presidents, not state wins. Under our rules, even if Bernie ran the table the rest of the way, under proportionality rules, Hillary"s lead is still safe.


Hillary could have a 300 point delegate lead after tonight. That's nearly mathematically impossible to overcome.

[Land of Enchantment]

29. If Bernie

can win Missouri Clair McCaskill will be eating the crow pie!

[SheenaR]

31. Unlike

The chicken sh*t that posted above me and deleted immediately so the thread would get kicked, I come humbly to eat crow

Ill and Mo still in play but an impressive and quite frankly stunning margin of victory in Ohio.

Congrats to Clinton supporters. A big night for you all.

I look forward to a continued spirited debate with your side and I hope my side stays resolute in helping Bernie continue to pick up states and delegates.

For tonight, I was wrong. Congrats.

[etherealtruth]

32. The race is actually tightening in MO

Looks like it may be close to 50/50