1332 pledged delegates are assigned so far. Can we all just agree on the arithmetic?

[Recursion]

The supers are going to do what they're going to do. Just in terms of making it to the convention with a majority of pledged delegates, there are currently 1332 of 4051 assigned, or just south of one third.

Of those 1332, Clinton has earned 775, and Sanders 552, for a 223-delegate lead, with 2719 delegates still outstanding.

To win the majority of pledged delegates, Sanders will need to win 2026 total, or 1474 more than now. That means he has to win 54% of the remaining delegates to hit the convention with a majority of pledged delegates.

We can argue later about whether that is doable or not*, but for right now: does anybody disagree with my arithmetic, that Sanders needs 54% of the remaining pledged delegates to hit the convention with a majority of pledged delegates?

* and, hell, for that matter I'm agnostic on whether earning a majority of pledged delegates means that the supers some how "have to" vote for you; if that's the case we should just get rid of the system.

[Cheese Sandwich]

1. 54% is correct.

Bernie will have to win about 54% of pledged delegates between now and June to get a majority of pledged delegates. Superdelegates are separate from that, they do what they want.

I've been through this about 5 times today and keep coming to 53% or 54%

I used the numbers listed on Real Clear Politics. These are slightly different than what you gave, not sure why, but the concept is the same.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

[Cheese Sandwich]

2. And by the way, on superdelegates,

it's true they don't "have to" do anything. But they might think it is in the best interests of winning the general election to ratify who ever won the election with the pledged delegate count. Similarly they don't "have to" vote for Clinton just because they endorsed her once. There is plenty of history of superdelegates switching candidates.

And remember, if Bernie won the pledged delegates, he would then need only 50% of the superdelegates to neutralize the effect of superdelegates. He can put that together from those who are currently uncommitted plus some, but not all, switching from Clinton.

[Gothmog]

4. Only if the super delegates think that Sanders would help party and down ballot candidates

Sanders is not raising funds for the party and there are significant fears that Sanders would hurt down ballot candidates

[Cheese Sandwich]

12. And they will make that decision by July, and they will deal with the consequences.

This is March. So it's about 6 months early to be talking about it.

[Gothmog]

3. Why Hillary Clinton’s delegate lead over Bernie Sanders is bigger than it looks

The Clinton lead over Sanders in 2016 is actually far greater than the Obama lead over Clinton in 2008 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/14/why-hillary-clintons-delegate-lead-over-bernie-sanders-is-bigger-than-it-looks/

But here's the thing: Whether or not Clinton wins Ohio doesn't really matter.

It's important to remember that the Democrats, unlike the Republicans, don't allocate delegates on a winner-take-all basis. When Donald Trump won South Carolina with a plurality of the vote, he got all of the state's 50 delegates, a total that right now constitutes more than half of his lead. There are no states like that on the Democratic side. There are some variations in how the states divvy up their delegates, but they're proportionally distributed from now until the primary is over.

Which is why the 2008 daily delegate totals looked like this.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

As Clinton tried to play catch-up with Barack Obama, he would get some delegates every time she did. The only times she made big gains against him was in states she won by a wide margin. But the proportional delegate system kept Obama steadily out of reach.

It's worth comparing Obama's 2008 lead in the delegates to Clinton's. Clinton, by virtue of huge margins of victory in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana, has a much bigger lead than Obama did at this point -- or than Obama did at any point. (The data below excludes superdelegates.)
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

Even without super delegates, Clinton has a far greater lead over Sanders compared to the lead that President Obama had over Clinton in 2008

[morningfog]

5. Comparing her lead to a past race does not make her lead bigger.

Numbers are numbers.

[Gothmog]

6. Yes and a 90 delegate lead was sufficient for Obama

Numbers are indeed numbers and it will be almost impossible for Sanders to over come the current delegate lead

[MineralMan]

7. The candidate with the most pledged delegates at the convention will be the nominee.

I don't think there is any question about that. Everyone should be ready for that to happen. Once the delegate count is known, we'll have our nominee, based on who gets the most pledged delegates.

As long as that happens, there should be no room for arguments about who won. It will be time to work toward electing that nominee in November.

It doesn't matter which states provided the delegates. It doesn't matter who won more states. The only thing that matters is the delegate count. The superdelegates will honor the proportional delegate count at the convention.

There will be a clear winner. No question about it. I will be supporting and campaigning for that winner, whoever it is.

[Gothmog]

8. Here is a good video on the delegate math

I found this video to be interesting

[bigwillq]

9. Yes. It's unlikely, although not impossible, that Bernie will win the nomination

He's chasing, like Hillary was against Obama in 2008. Very likely that Hillary will be the nominee.

[imagine2015]

10. So Sanders only needs to win 54% of the remaining elected delegates! That's doable!

[oberliner]

11. 700 delegates up for grabs today

If Hillary gets more - or if it's an even split - the percentage that Bernie needs the rest of the way goes up.

Bernie really needs to have a very good day today to get on a realistic track to victory.

Winning Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri - and keeping it close in Florida/NC would completely shift the race in Bernie's favor.

[Recursion]

14. Agreed

Sanders's candidacy can be effectively ended today

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. You got no issue from me

I know there is a narrow map... for one campaign, but one exists.

And no, we are not tallying supers...

[aikoaiko]

15. What really matters is that Bernie fight for every delegate between now and the convention.

And then let the math do its thing.