Don’t let shifting Ohio and Illinois polls scare you about Hillary Clinton’s chances

[bigtree]

from Jack Wibbe at Daily Newsbin:


There are three kinds of polls. First is the live poll: pollsters actually call your phone, and two live people have a conversation. Second is a machine poll: machines robo-call landline phones and contact people on the internet, but no cellphones; they contact huge numbers of people, sort them demographically, and then make a “model” of what a real live poll would have told us. Third is a hybrid: they call cellphones live, but robo-call the landlines. Recent polls give very different answers in the neck-and-neck states.

• In Illinois, live polls give Hillary a 26 point lead, and the hybrid polls agree, giving her a lead of 33. But the purely machine polls, with lots of net but no cellphones, call the race a tie. In Ohio Hillary leads by 14 in live polls, but only by 8 with the machines.

• The two Missouri polls have Hillary leading by 7 live, but trailing by 1 in the machine poll.

• The two blowout states are more consistent: Hillary leads by 28 to 30 in Florida, and 17 to 21 in North Carolina.

So Hillary has big leads when voters talk to pollsters live, but does less well with the machines. Only 3 of the 38 recent polls have Hillary trailing Sanders anywhere, and all three are machine polls. Remember that all of these polls count people who say they are likely Democratic voters. People who decide at the last minute to vote in the other party’s primary, jumping the fence in either direction, are not taken into account. That’s how the polls, and Nate Silver, missed Michigan, and could miss the open-primary states this time.

Winning all five races would be nice, if only to forestall all the yelling and hooting from Team Bernie and the media if Hillary loses a state. But even if Hillary only gets ties in the three close states, the expected blowouts in Florida and North Carolina will help her expand her delegate lead by about 70, winning by around 381 to 310 for the night, and a total lead of 1612 to 866 roughly. At that point Bernie would face the impossible task of winning two thirds of all the remaining delegates. So regardless of the anti-Hillary spin, she still comes out fine, even if the machine polls are right and the live polls are wrong. Nate Silver has Hillary winning five states and Trump winning four; Real Clear Politics has Trump and Hillary each winning four.


read: http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/dont-let-ohio-and-illinois-polls-scare-you-about-hillary-clintons-chances/24121/

[mucifer]

1. It is hard to believe Bernie is so far behind here in Illinois.

But, I do know my state is bigger than Chicago.

[demosocialist]

3. I live in Central IL

and I was down at the Champaign rally on Saturday. I am surprised by Sen Sanders support in all these ares. I really wonder what his support in the suburbs are though?

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. The vote pattern in Illinois will likely be like that in Michigan and Massachusetts

Hillary will win big in Chicago and the North Suburbs, with Sanders winning the traditionally Republican voting areas West and South.

The Clinton-Sanders races have been curious in that they look like traditional Dem-GOP splits geographically (Dems win Greater Boston, GOP wins Westawoosta; Dems win Wayne County and the suburbs, GOP wins west and north Michigan). The same will likley happen in Illinois - you'll be able to map the county colors on to the usual Dem-GOP split. The question (as in Michigan) will be whether Sanders has cut the lead in Cook and Lake counties sufficiently to prevent them from offsetting the rest of the state.

I'd say his target is 43-44% in Cook and Lake. If he drops below 41%, he's toast. Similarly for Clinton: her safe zone is 57%+ in Chicago and North Suburbs. If she doesn't hit that, Sanders will win by 1%-4% statewide.

[Lucinda]

9. Will be interesting watching he numbers come in...

And it is odd how much the races looks like the Dem-GOP splits.

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. There are demographics that partially explain it

I also think the big urban centers are just better organized for traditional/moderate Democrats. The Sanders people will call this "a Machine" or even Establishment Machine, but it will be the same Machine they rely on to offset the red countryside come November, should they win the nom. The so-called "Machines" in the big Democratic controlled urban areas are just strong organization at the precinct level and beyond.

[Lucinda]

16. Which is why, in part, he is running as a Dem.

The party has spent a great deal of time and money building up strong local arms. No one running outside of the party system really would stand a chance.

[global1]

12. I Phone Banked For Bernie The Other Day In Illinois And.....

I had 18 Strong Bernie support, 3 Leaning Bernie and 1 Strong Hillary. Two people said they were Repugs and take them off the phone list. Two were Strong Trump. And one person told me to go (beep) myself. Out of 83 calls I made the rest were - answering machines; not home; on spring break; at school, etc - where I didn't reach the intended person to be contacted.

Given the climate in Chicago - after the Lequan McDonald shooting and cover-up by Rahm and Alverez - there should be high voter turn-out in Chicago. I believe Alverez will be going down. Hillary is tied to Rahm through previous relationship under Bill's presidency and he's endorsed her. So I don't think Hillary will be real strong in Chicago.

It was interesting - and I'm not sure if this is true - but I heard that Bernie had 11 campaign offices in the State of Illinois and Hillary only had 2. Again - that might be offices in Chicago - but I heard it was offices across the state.

My conclusion when I heard that is that Hillary was taking Illinois for granted and didn't feel she had to work it hard. I think her campaign felt they needed to spend that money in other states. It's only been the last few days where the Hillary campaign was making appearances in and around the state. I think it was too little - too late.

I'm going to go out on a limb here - but after the Trump debacle rally on Friday - and the support we saw in Chicago for Bernie - that this race will either be close or a big victory (Michigan style) for Bernie.

Don't count out the Democratic Machine here in Chicago. Rahm hasn't been very visible around here in the last few weeks - but I bet he is working behind the scenes to try and pull something out for Hillary.

Based on Hillary's performance in her Town Hall with Tweety last night and the statements and gaffs she's been making over the last few weeks - I'm thinking the pressure is getting to her and the internals must be bad. Seems like she has been getting desperate and desperate people do desperate things. I think she might be facing a money problem as I believe she overspent in the early races thinking they would put this away quick. She didn't expect this race to go on as long - thought she'd have it wrapped up by now.

It will be really interesting to watch the returns tonight - from a number of perspectives.

Go Bernie!!!

Feel the Bern!!!!

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. I live in Chicago

There's certainly Bernie support here, but I think progressives from outside Chicago are letting their hatred of Rahm cloud their view of what's going on on the ground. I suspect Hillary will still trounce Sanders in the big African American wards. She'll win Luis Gutierrez's district huge (yuuuge?). He's been out for her. Probably the West side along with that. Hillary is also going to win big in the wealthier white wards. One of the key markers will be Lakeview: will the white under-30 vote let Bernie reach his targets?

Alvarez is done. One interesting tidbit is that the ward endorsements (especially on the North Side) have gone to Alvarez, while the Cook County Dem organization endorsement went to Foxx. That's the split between Preckwinkle and Rahm playing out at the Ward-County level. But both the CCDO and the ward committeemen endorsements have gone to Hillary. It's one piece of evidence that the Rahm factor will not be as big as people unfamiliar with Chicago politics expect.

Who got endorsed in the 2-10 wards? Who got endorsed in the teen wards? You may think ward level endorsements don't matter, but that's how the game is played here. My guess: Bernie will make the majority of his Chicagoland vote in the west suburbs and far north and northwest sides. He may split Lakeview. The 43% target will be hittable, but it's going to be close. Like I said, if he's 41% or less in Cook and Lake, he's not going to make it statewide.

[GreatGazoo]

15. Sanders is beating these pre-voting polls by an average of 35%

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511492464

[MineralMan]

2. The only poll that matters is taking place right now.

We'll know tonight or tomorrow what the results are in all five states.

Nothing else matters.

[Major Hogwash]

5. Is Bernie being investigated by the FBI?

The Inspector General said the other night on Colbert that she is taking this matter very seriously.

[bigtree]

19. must suck rooting along with the GOP for an indictment

...or, maybe not.

[Lizzie Poppet]

21. It could be argued that rooting for an indictment is rooting AGAINST the GOP.

At least if the person believes Hillary will lose in November and Bernie would win.

I'm not actually in that position, myself, despite strongly favoring Bernie. An indictment would be a huge blow to the party and to the entire left-leaning population (I'm a member of the latter but not the former). I doubt it would change the election outcome, but it would be more ammunition for the mouth-breathers ("the criminal left" and crap like that).

[Betty Karlson]

6. Now you are just being silly.

[oasis]

7. Hillary has to be viewed nationally as the ultimate Trump stopper.

The GOP has lost control and "The Donald" has become a runaway train.

The events of the past week have made it clear to Democratic and independent voters that they no longer have the luxury of flirting with any ideas of "revolution ".

[Lizzie Poppet]

22. I have to strongly disagree.

I believe Bernie would be much more successful vs. the vulgar talking yam. His nomination would probably slightly depress black voter turnout, but it would raise young voter turnout...probably a wash in the majority of swing states (the only place any of this matters).

Clinton polls horribly with independent voters. Some (but by no means all) of the left-leaning independents will vote for her, the conservative ones for neither Democratic candidate. But moderate independents, long considered the critical bloc in swing states, will not, IMO. This is the "year of the outsider," and I'd confidently predict more of that group will go for Trump. They'd be morons to do so, of course...but there's no IQ-based weighting on votes; morons' votes count the same as everyone else's.

Perhaps more importantly, Hillary motivates the base like no other candidate...the Republican base. That's even worse for the downballot than for president, as it applies to non-swing-states, as well. Hillary would kill our shot to reclaim the Senate, IMO, and I think that would happen even if she won (a scenario that at least prevents "Justice Cruz," although I don't trust her not to compromise on a slightly less nauseating choice).

[oasis]

23. The potential makeup of SCOTUS will be critical in the GE.

No Dems or Indys want to endure the 20+year rulings of an ultra right leaning high court.

[Lizzie Poppet]

24. Agreed. That's one of THE critical issues in this election.

It's why I will, in the highly unlikely event my state is in play, vote for Hillary if she's the nominee. I don't trust her any farther than I could throw her on most any matter related to economic justice...but she won't nominate fucking Ted Cruz for the Court.

[AgerolanAmerican]

8. It's the Youth Voter Effect

young voters are much less likely to answer calls from unknown numbers or have their mobile phones listed for the pollsters to call

[Land of Enchantment]

10. Obsolete

polling methods are so unreliable. Why, in 2016, can we not have better methods? The DNC does not poll independents and Illinois and Missouri are both 'open' primaries. Ohio and NC are 'mixed' and Florida is 'closed'. Too, the polls do not reflect people who have never voted before---and turnout has been low for the last 3 cycles. It's illegal in a lot of places to call cellphones because the cellphone user is charged per call--I don't know the answer but just don't trust any of them and will wait and see like MineralMan.

[beachbumbob]

14. Worse case is split in delagates in ill, Ohio, mo...and commanding gains from

Florida and NC on both votes and delegates...end of day Hillary is closer to nomination and sanders further away....

[libtodeath]

18. Marking for later

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. You must be really worried

but thanks for adding to my tea leaves...

I am not at home where CNN is only national (We have breaking news from Brussels, shots fired during arrest related to the Paris attack), so I cannot enjoy another cheap book.

But Mook lowering exceptions yesterday and I mean massively and this article, tell me that people are indeed worried. And you know what, this is how politics works.

At least I hope tonight CNN-I goes back to Atlanta for the show, though just for variation and more balance I might just turn CNN-Mexico City.