Why Is Bernie's Campaign Defying the Entire Polling Industry?

[Ferd Berfel]

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/why-bernies-campaign-defying-entire-polling-industry


Voters clearly aren't doing what the polls suggest they will.


Bernie Sanders' historic upset in Tuesday night's Michigan Primary, which the nation's most influential polling aggregator estimated he would lose by 22 points, may prove to be the turning point in this election. That's because Sanders' two point victory in Michigan follows just a week or less after three other huge, but barely unnoticed poll-defying victories by Sanders in Colorado, Minnesota, and Kansas. Taken together with these other states, the Michigan upset is not, as America's foremost poll analyst Nate Silver claimed, a freak event not witnessed since the New Hampshire primary of 1984, but part of a new pattern of poll-defying results that will, if they continue, carry Bernie Sanders into the White House.

In the March 1st Super Tuesday contest, Sanders won Colorado by 19 points. The most recent poll there had shown him winning by only 6% of the vote, resulting in a poll-to-reality discrepancy of 13 points. In the under-reported Kansas contest on March 5, Bernie won by 35 percent, instead of losing by 10 percent as predicted, a poll-to-reality discrepancy of 45 percent.

The compelling question that eight days of election results in Michigan, Kansas, Colorado and Minnesota raises is how accurate are all the other recent polls showing Clinton victories on the March 15th Super Tuesday sequel? If Bernie surpasses the polls in these states by as much as he just did in Michigan, he stands to score historic upsets in the important delegate-rich states of Ohio and even North Carolina.

[Divernan]

1. I'm expecting the same pro Bernie discrepancies in every state today.

[Marr]

2. It seems like the polling outlets mirror every other establishment outlet, in that

they're blind to younger voters.

[Dustlawyer]

7. They ate not blind, it's intentional! This is TPTB fighting a war to stop Bernie's

Political Revolution. They control government, judiciary, and the media and they mean to keep control of our country. We live under corporate rule right now, Bernie is helping us to overthrow this shadow government!

[ChairmanAgnostic]

9. Blind eating is not easy.

But I agree that it is intentional.

[Dustlawyer]

16. Ironic, I am reading "Black House" by Stephen King

in which one of the main characters is blind and the murderer of kids is eating them!

I think my auto correct is possessed!!!

[ChairmanAgnostic]

17. LOL, love it.

Stephen King pisses me off. The first 1/2, 3/5ths, 4/5ths of his books are riveting, scary, great. The last 1/5 angers the heck out of me, because it typically sucks. Every King book I read did that to me, including some of his most famous and popular.

[Land Shark]

3. SC was bizarre outlier for HRC, 20+ points more than polls. Pollsters definitions of likely voters

And now they are off 20 points give or take 10 in the other direction.

South Carolina votes on touch screens with no paper ballots. HRC won SC, but I would bet not by the extent of the reported margins. Now the polls can't get it right because they adjusted when they missed SC's overly large margin and now assume young people and whites don't vote as much and Africa Americans vote in huge numbers, which exaggerates the reported poll results in favor of HRC.

[erlewyne]

4. I voted 5 hours ago.

No biggie. I do not watch television.
I watch DU. I do not have a phone.
I am not polled.

I am proud of my Bernie sign.

[Eric J in MN]

5. In South Carolina, Hillary Clinton far exceeded the polls.

Primaries are more difficult to predict than general elections.

[Land Shark]

11. On paperless touch screen voting machines, yeah.

[DirkGently]

6. They often poll "likely voters" based on past voting.

Lots of people who usually don't bother are engaging this time around.

Al lot of what we need for a better democracy is just more people paying attention.

[revbones]

13. I wonder if the definition should be changed for this year in polls

since this is so much of an anto-establishment year, if it affects likely voters, etc...

[Dem2]

8. It could be an interesting night

I'm looking forward to it

[Aerows]

10. Wishful thinking

The powers that be want a Hillary or Bush type. They don't want a Sanders.

The entirety of Washington, D.C. has underestimated just how pissed Americans across the spectrum are at the establishment.

I don't know how they could have failed to see this coming.

They are trying to push the narrative that Hillary is a winner to get people to vote for her, because she is a comfortable candidate for the Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon crew. After the week she had, though, it is silly to think that she is inevitable. Her campaign is just shy of completely off the rails.

[Land Shark]

12. Sanders campaign is reaching beyond the margin of successful manipulation

I think you are right that the establishment influences have effect. As a practical matter a slight supermajority is needed to provide cushion against inroads made by endless propaganda about powerlessness, Sanders will lose, etc. Self-fulfilling for those who believe them. But I was in Michigan on election day, and born there, and I DO NOT BELIEVE that kind of inevitable losing stuff.

[pdsimdars]

14. Like a theif in the night. . . right under their noses.

[senz]

15. Bernie is breaking through all kinds of old paradigms.

Truth does that.