Bernie only fell behind about 100 more delegates yesterday. (ETA: Well, maybe not.)

[thesquanderer]

FURTHER ETA: I'll blame my early morning (lack of) math skills, but it has been pointed out below that many delegates have not yet been awarded (i.e. the reported amounts going to Bernie and Hillary don't add up to the total to be pledged) so we don't know the correct number yet, and it could well be quite a bit higher than 100-ish. Whoops! Leaving the post because people replied. OP follows:

---------------------------

This isn't a joke. Seriously, that's not bad. Until a few days ago, it would have been cause for celebration among Sanders supporters.

Up until very recently, losing March 15 by "only" about 100 delegates would have been seen as a success, about the best any of us had hoped for, until there was briefly some wind of things possibly moving more in Bernie's direction. For most of this campaign, most Bernie supporters expected March 15 to be a bad day for him, something optimistically seen as his "last bad day" before the calendar turns more in his favor. That's still the case.

Take a look at http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511467539 for example, from just this last Friday (still after Michigan)... Bernie supporters like Recursion, Jaqui and myself were actually encouraged by the idea that he might only lose by about 100 delegates! Even Hillary supporter DCBob felt it was Bernie's best case scenario. Nobody without excessively rose-colored glasses was thinking he could do much better than that. Heck, before Michigan, the idea of being only about 100 points further down on March 15 would have been seen as a pipe dream!

So forget those few misleading reports in the last days before the primaries. Maybe they were floated by opposition to set expectations so high as to easily take some wind out of his sails? Who knows. But up until those last reports, few ever thought he could come away from March 15th better than he actually did, most of us would have gladly taken a mere 100 delegate deficit, and rejoiced!

Here are the numbers, according to google:

Florida · 214 delegates
Clinton won and has 124 delegates, Sanders has 60
SANDERS DOWN 64

Illinois · 156 delegates
99% reporting · Clinton won and has 66 delegates, Sanders has 64
SANDERS DOWN 2

North Carolina · 107 delegates
100% reporting · Clinton won and has 59 delegates, Sanders has 42
SANDERS DOWN 17

Ohio · 143 delegates
99% reporting · Clinton won and has 75 delegates, Sanders has 54
SANDERS DOWN 21

TOTAL SANDERS DOWN 104

Missouri is still shown as too close to call, but it is safe to assume that it's going to be close to a 50-50 split, so we can expect Sanders to remain down 104, more or less.

ETA: Of course I realize the math continues to favor Hillary, as it has all along. Bernie has always been, and remains, the underdog by a good margin. My point is only that he's not out of it, that he's still as "in it" as most of us had realistically hoped he would be at this point, as recently as Friday.

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. "Only..."

[Renew Deal]

2. ...

&sns

[peacebird]

3. Agree totally, there is a long way to go before the convention.

Bernie's trajectory is strong, and upcoming states are far more favorable to him.

[JaneyVee]

4. Hillary now has 3x bigger delegate lead than...

Obama ever had on her in 2008. Three times bigger.

[DCBob]

5. Only??

He is now down by around 320 delegates total. That is a huge lead to overcome with proportional allocation and the fact Hillary now has the momentum and media narrative that this thing is over.

[PassingFair]

11. Although....

she has enjoyed the media narrative that "this thing is over" since before the primaries even began.

[DCBob]

12. True, but this time its more emphatic.

[thesquanderer]

21. I agree, Sanders is still a long shot, just as he has been all along.

I was just trying to say that he's still not out, that things haven't really changed that much, that Sanders supporters have long been saying that you had to look beyond March 15 to see the calendar turn in his direction. (And even then, it's a tough road.) Expectations were unrealistically raised over the weekend, but we really just ended up about where we thought we'd be. (That said, I have edited the OP to indicate that the count is going to be more negative than I had originally indicated.)

[DCBob]

23. Last night was big turning point.

If Bernie was going to have any sort of plausible run to win this thing, it would have had to start last night. She can now cruise to the nomination with just a few wins along the way and keep it close in the rest or simply avoid getting blown out anywhere.

[DrDan]

6. sure was a lot of vitriol/bridge-berning last night for such a relatively small loss of delegates

[Trust Buster]

10. Last week, Sanders won one state by less than 2% while Hillary beat him in total delegates

because of her dominance in Mississippi. Yet, Sanders supporters wanted to get the coronation started. One week later, Sanders loses all 5 major states and the same crowd claims "There's nothing to see hear". You sadly testify against yourselves.

[DrDan]

13. you are misreading me - I am an HRC supporter

[thesquanderer]

14. Not sure it's "the same crowd"

I certainly wasn't claiming any kind of Sanders coronation! After Michigan, I only saw a long shot turning into a slightly less long shot.

[cherokeeprogressive]

22. And a lot of crowing from the rooftops.

[Trust Buster]

7. Hillary has received 2 million+ more votes than Sanders.

[grossproffit]

8. This FIX IS IN!

[thesquanderer]

15. For better or worse, elections are not determined by total popular vote.

So there is still uncertainty about the outcome, regardless of total popular vote.

[Trust Buster]

18. I was just pointing out the general sentiment of the Democratic electorate.

Was not speaking to an electoral map.

[morningfog]

9. 100 is a hefty amount and not all have been allocated.

Florida still has a lot to divvy up and most will go the Hillary.

Last nights results hurt Bernie's path significantly.

[thesquanderer]

16. Excellent point about not all delegates having been allocated.

I edited my post to reflect that, thanks.

[SidDithers]

17. Sanders down 64 delegates (and probably more, once all delegates have been apportioned) in Florida..

is the same number of delegates than he gained in his victories in CO(+10), MN(+15), OK(+4), VT(+16), KS(+15) and MI(+4) combined.

One big win for Hillary, in a big state, wiped out Sanders' gains from 6 of his victories.

Sanders won't make up ground with small margin victories, or even big margins in small states. He needs landslides to offset Hillary landslides.

Sid

[Trust Buster]

19. Good assessment. Yes, it would take a landslide at this point.

[Happenstance24]

24. To put that in perspective

The delegates Hillary gained last night from FL alone wiped out 6 of the 9 states Bernie has won so far. 6 of 9. Over.

[OilemFirchen]

27. The delegates Sanders gained in the world-changing, once-in-a-lifetime upset in Michigan...

were wiped out by Clinton's win in the Northern Mariana Islands.

Perspective beats perception every time.

[beachbum bob]

20. I know the math sucks but really. does any one think sanders can get the 60%

of remaining delegates from the sates like New York, Pennsylvania, California.....really its the math....he hasn't got 60% of the delegates from ANY major primary to date....

[cosmicone]

25. It's a virtual tie !!! n/t

[Jarqui]

26. Her southern states are done and that is where she really

created this gap.

But here's the thing: I did a rough calculation last night that suggests for her to formally "clinch", she has to win about 70% of the remaining delegates from the primary.

She's won about 57.5% so far. If Bernie stays in, I do not see her winning 70% the rest of the way now that the big margin south is done - even if support for Bernie falls off.

To that point: that same calculation shows Bernie needs to win roughly 88% of the remaining delegates to clinch before the convention. He may be alive mathematically but that's the only way he can win out right. He's not likely to win at a convention with all the super delegates lined up against him.

The only thing Bernie could try to do is win more delegates than her and hope the super delegates honor the vote results. But even then, it's daunting: he'd have to win around 59% and her 41% on average the rest of the way. If you objectively look at the results from last night - that are likely to give her a bump, if he couldn't do that last night in Ohio, Illinois or Missouri, how can we plausibly accept he can do it in all the states going forward? We really can't.

Predictwise has Hillary's chance of winning at 96% and the only reason they're probably not at 99% is because of the FBI email scandal or an allowance that something could happen ...