2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOK, now that we have firmer delegate counts: Sanders needs 57%, Clinton 43% going forward
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/Obviously MO could go all crazy with a recount, but based on where we are now, Sanders needs 1248 delegates, or 57% of the remaining available, and Clinton needs 926, or 43% of the remaining delegates.
2173 delegates are still outstanding, meaning there are still theoretically enough delegates for a candidate to win simply with delegates from the states that haven't voted yet.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)But I doubt either would be able to get a convention majority based purely on pledged delegates, realistically.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)constituents want. So, I am waiting for all the votes to be counted. CALIFORNIA OR BUST.
BainsBane
(53,032 posts)He didn't win 53 or 54%, or even 51%, despite massively outspending Hillary in ad revenues. She won five out of five. He's effectively out of the competition.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)BainsBane
(53,032 posts)and then he is going to have to account to the FEC for the contributions that violated campaign finance law.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/02/26/bernie-sanders-campaign-contributions/80999298/
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)hillarys best states are behind her. bernies are ahead, and 30 contests left. she leads in just over 10% of the pledged delegstes needed.
it's definitely game on.
BainsBane
(53,032 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Bernie will not be the nominee. She with the most delegates becomes the nominee. He with the fewest delegates returns to the Senate.
cosmicone
(11,014 posts)where Sanders can get a 58-42 win.
He may win WA and OR 52-48 - that won't cut it.
He will lose CT, NY, NJ, PA and MD -- all closed primaries.
He will lose CA 54-46 -- a semi-open primary.
He will lose AZ 52-48 - a closed primary.
ID, WY, MT, UT, HI and RI won't cut it even if he wins all the delegates there.
He is done. I appreciate the inner need to hang on to hope but the arithmetic is clear.
MineralMan
(146,307 posts)Even if they're wrong, though, you're right. The margins simply aren't wide enough in any of those big states to do the job for Bernie, even if he wins them all closely, which is the best he can expect.
There are no states where he can win "all the delegates." I doubt there are any where he can hit the 58-42 mark, really, at this point, and he'd have to do that in every remaining state.
It's just not feasible at this point, barring some major event that turns the tide.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)And I'll support him for as long as he allows me to hope for a better Democratic Party.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)msanthrope
(37,549 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)For many the writing is already on the wall and they may hesitate about throwing more money down an empty hole. Without a PAC to support him Bernie he depends on small contributions.
Many of his biggest individual donators have already reached the limit of what they can contribute during the primaries by federal law. Small contributors often have limited resources. Will they be financially able to contribute to the Sanders campaign especially if they see his chances.
In addition is it morally right for a candidate to continue to ask for contributions if he/she knows he/she has almost virtually no chance of winning.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)mathematically it is very difficult
It could happen... I just don't see how, and the campaign is saying it can. And right now we are at 45 percent of delegates awarded... once we cross that magical 51 percent...
I do this as analysis, Before last night there was a narrow map... now... there is a nearly impossible map.
I won't tell people how to vote... I leave the loyalty pledges to others. (As insulting as I find them)
Uncle Joe
(58,361 posts)the top barring some extreme major circumstance taking place.
It will boil down to who has the most pledged delegates and how the super delegates weigh their decision as to which candidate to back.
Thanks for the thread, Recursion.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)what is there not to like?