2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCan Hillary defeat Kasich?
His star is rising and I don't think she would be able to defeat him.
I think Bernie would completely trash him.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)The fact that he is the media-anointed NOT_TRUMPF! reflects just what a bag of bad gas our media is.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)In fact, given the nature of the R's primary electorate, it is an indication that he'd do well with the broader, less reactionary GE electorate.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)A candidate can't win the general election unless they first win the primary.
It is literally impossible for him to win the Republican nomination.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)When you have the people who write the rules on your side, almost nothing is impossible.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)political party. Besides, these klowns cannot even agree on who the NOT-TRUMPF! is. Lindsey Graham just endorsed Ted Cruz. They are in complete disarray. Really their only chance of winning the GE at this point is to fall in line behind Der Trumpfinator, and that is what they are all gonna do.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)If he can't do it, they have a rule change to let Kasich have a shot. With establishment support and the Supreme Court on the line I'm seeing room for Kasich as a compromise candidate.
It certainly isn't a given, but they've told him to stay in the race through the convention because they see a path for him.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)Splain that
kristopher
(29,798 posts)It doesn't give Cruz enough to win, but it stops Trump and forces the revotes at the convention.
Zira
(1,054 posts)They cannot run someone who will not get 30% of the Republican vote. The primary is about picking someone who can win the GE and if the person picked is not viable in the GE, they may pick another. Trump is not viable. 30% of his own party won't vote for him. That means he cannot win the GE and they have to pick another.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)As things are right now, as per their own rules (rule 40 specifically) Trump is very likely to be the only candidate to qualify for the nomination, regardless of delegate count. So even if he doesn't have enough delegates to win outright, there may not be any other candidates who met the nomination requirements.
They would have to rewrite their own rules at the last moment. I really doubt Trump is going to accept that level of malfeasance without blowing up the 2016 election for the Republicans.
They are stuck with him. He will likely have the delegates he needs for a simple majority. They aren't going to run a third party against him. They arent going to force him to run as an independent.
Zira
(1,054 posts)not be viable if 30% of their own party won't vote for them. Trump is no more viable than Hillary.
That's why the Republicans are talking about a contested election. Since he can't win the GE his primary win means nothing. They have to run someone who can win the GE. They have a valid reason to pick who will run now and ignore the primaries.
The Dems should be doing the same thing. They are too corrupt too pull Hillary though. If Bernie wins he will unify and will likely win the GE, if Hillary wins the primary she has already failed to unify and cannot win the GE. 37% of Dems say they will not vote for her no matter what.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Zira
(1,054 posts)She failed.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Zira
(1,054 posts)and WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN... Helloooooo
She went from 30% wouldn't vote from her no matter in polls over the last year, to 33 percent last month and now 37 percent this month.
Here's the 33% link. I'm trying to find the 37% link.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/33-percent-of-bernie-sanders-not-vote-hillary_b_9475626.html
http://www.wsj.com/video/poll-33-of-sanders-supporters-wouldnt-vote-for-clinton/69C05055-85FE-4320-8D02-3EAC972CACD0.html
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)P.S. that's 33% of Sanders supporters, many of whom aren't Democrats, and that number is certainly inflated by the heat of the primary
Zira
(1,054 posts)Wake up. It's the problem with Clinton and Trump.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)have yet to find a source for your own claim
Zira
(1,054 posts)because I found it posted on two different sites.
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)And that is a big new advantage in a primary season full of winner-take-all contests.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)And what united front? Cruz is still getting endorsements from establishment idiot party leaders, like Graham. Cruz and Graham will split the not trump vote in these winner take all states, leaving the winner taking all a certain Benito Trumpf!
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)governor of Ohio.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Nailzberg
(4,610 posts)Squinch
(50,964 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)If Trump falls short of the required to win delegates, the republican establishment is going to push back hard against him. Kasich is still in the race for that very reason. Out of the entire field they started with, he has always been the most electable.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)his supporters will walk away and not look back. Either way, the Republican Party is screwed.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)They're generating a wave of turnout with the Supreme Court shenanigan.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)That is across the board pro-gun anti-abortion Republican motivation and it is going to be very strong with months of Fox news pushing it.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)The Supreme Court will be reset for a generation to come. This election is not about who has the political power over the next 4 years. This election is about who will have political power over the next 25 years.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)Mania is a more sure motivator for voting.
It's the standard strategy of triangulating on social issues and Hillary has been/would be playing into their hands since it also how she operates.
Her efforts during the primaries are going to have consequences.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Though a woman's right to choose is very important to a Democrats. A 6-3 Right leaning Supreme would mean;
* the complete end of Affirmative Action.
* a reversal of the gay marriage ruling (also an important social issue to democrats)
* the end of the Affordable Healthcare Act.
*the end of what's left of the Voting Rights Act
* the end of class action lawsuits
* severely diminished secular rights
* the EPA rendered toothless
*** Citizens United in place for a generation
If Democrats are not motivated by just those few examples that I listed, then we don't deserve to occupy the White House.
wyldwolf
(43,868 posts)Kasich hasn't been vetted.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)apnu
(8,758 posts)Zira
(1,054 posts)party that 30% of their own wouldn't vote for them no matter what.
Had they been, they would have been replaced by their parties as non-viable in the GE - just like Trump is now getting replaced for the same reason. Google RNC Contested Election. It's all the talk with them right now. The DNC is conceding a loss by not replacing Hillary because of it. Thinking she could win any GE is the unicorns and rainbows. She didn't unify the party. The 37% of Democrats that won't vote for her no matter what have a large majority saying conscience prevents it because of her record as secretary of state - it parallels Kissenger's. They won't unify behind that.
She should have never run. It's a post occupy world. It's a post Gasland America. Most people are too informed to vote for the 1% plutocrat who wants to frack and supports the TPP and Keystone XL. Even the Republicans are too informed for that at this point.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)I don't see anything anywhere that would support that assumption. And that doesn't take into account the shitty way the Clinton Camp has behaved during the primary campaign.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)And even if they "gave" the nomination to him, he has not been vetted. He closed PP in his State, and that alone will bring more women out. I will ignore your "shittiness" comment since it isn't worth my valuable time.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)And you still have zero evidence supporting your beliefs.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)...the Republicans are very unlikely to put up their most electable candidate (i.e. compared to Trump or Cruz).
Unfortunately, we're not likely to put up our most electable candidate either.
Polls at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html
Obviously a lot can change between now and then, and the electoral map means you get limited info from a general popular vote estimate.
Still, as a starting point, it's better to be ahead in the polls than behind.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)Zira
(1,054 posts)and how can she beat him with her extra 7% deficit?
You know, 30% of Republicans refuse to vote for Trump no matter what.
But, 37% of Democrats refuse to vote for Hillary no matter what.
She's down 7%. And unlike Trump, she increased the amount of Dems who refused to vote for her no matter what, in the last month - by 4%. She's getting more unpopular with Dems and Trump has stayed stable at 30% with Republicans who won't vote for him no matter what.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)book_worm
(15,951 posts)He is not really on the move. He only won his homestate. It is still likely that it will be Trump. Furthermore if it isn't Trump a lot of Trump supporters will sit on their hands and not vote in November. It is actually more likely that Cruz would be the nominee if not Trump.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)She will kick his Kasich.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)He has to win over 100% of remaining delegates.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)If Trump gets the 1237 required on the first vote, he will be the nominee. If he doesn't, they seem set to ensure he is not the nominee by whatever tactic they have in their bag of tricks. They clearly deem the damage he'd do to the party as nominee is greater than the damage they'd do by an overt exercise of power to reject him.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)lostnfound
(16,187 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Not that it matters. He's far too uncrazy for the 2015 GOP.
BainsBane
(53,038 posts)Can Dukakis beat Stevenson? Can Jeb beat O'Malley? Inquiring minds want to know.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He pulls a lot of Dems in Ohio.
revbones
(3,660 posts)I think she'll have a hard enough time with Trump, let alone someone not crazy.
MineralMan
(146,320 posts)Not a chance.
Botany
(70,539 posts)He will not be the nominee
kristopher
(29,798 posts)They can then change the rules to favor Kasich and he would probably be elected (appointed) on a second or third round vote.
Botany
(70,539 posts).... and they give it to K-shit then most of Trump's supporters would
not support K-shit in the general and if Trump wins the nomination he
should get crushed in the general election.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The suggestion that Crazy Ass Trump and his Crazy Ass followers will allow the nomination to be stolen from him and them without wreaking havoc is absurd.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)The substantial content of your posts is consistently nil.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)And the fact you use an anonymous medium to trash me adds a nice touch...
kristopher
(29,798 posts)You seem to be fixated on the idea that any disagreement with your hyperbole is called "ad hominem". It isn't.
Pointing out the consistent failure to actually make a comment that deals with the subject at hand isn't a personal attack.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)If you believe I am your inferior in any manner there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of notion, though I am absolutely flummoxed by what you have accomplished in life that would give you such a notion.
Please bring me to heed and regale me with all your accomplishments in life, oh, and please verify them.
And as always, thank you in advance.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)PonyUp
(1,680 posts)bigwillq
(72,790 posts)I think Hillary can win against any of the Rs and I think she can lose against any of them. Same goes for Bernie.
speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)it would make the race a referendum on Hillary.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)But outside of a brokered convention, he's not going to be their nominee. Could happen...but a very, very long shot.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Kasich would be the hapless fella in the gray trunks:
kristopher
(29,798 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Thank you in advance.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)Thank you for your help.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Thank you in advance.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)I invited you to comment on the topic. Since that doesn't seem to be part of your repertoire I guess we're done.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I have seem more graceful surrenders but being the magnanimous and empathetic poster I am I will accept it.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)It's and extreme disconnect from anything that can even remotely be described as being based in reality.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)They don't seem to think it is divorced from reality. In fact his panel seems to think it's a distinct possibility. What they seem rather unified on is that if Trump doesn't get the 1200+ delegate minimum, then the RNC is going to take action to field another candidate.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Don't pass the buck to someone else.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)Vattel
(9,289 posts)the republican nomination.
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)Squinch
(50,964 posts)brush
(53,801 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)Too many sources have stated that the party told him to stay in through the convention. FFS it has been the central topic in the news for several days.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)He has to win over a 100 % of remaining delegates.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)He is being set up to be elected at the convention once Trump and Cruz fail to get the required majority. It isn't written in stone and it's (for them) a least worst type of option, but the possibility is very real of Trump fails to get the required number of delegates before the convention.
Also was topic on Chris Hayes.
brush
(53,801 posts)and Ryan is the one that's being talked about to come out of a brokered convention if they try that.
And if they do, the repug party splits and whoever comes out of it will fall to Clinton.
If you think the Bernie backers swearing not to vote for Clinton is a thing, if they steal it from Trump, we ain't heard nothing yet as the Trump backers may even get violent.
The media loves to suck us into the horse race and/or brokered convention narrative but it's only drama-creating speculation. It gives them something to talk about and fill their air time.
As far as Kacish, no. He's got the fewest votes of anybody still left in the race in both parties.
Why on earth would they run the weakest vote getter, I don't care what the pundits say?
kristopher
(29,798 posts)Why on earth would they run the weakest primary electorate vote getter....?
Because he is the best, much-wider-GE-electorate vote getter.
brush
(53,801 posts)Primaries are held to see who gets the most votes.
Duh!
Kacish has gotten the fewest it doesn't follow that all of a sudden he's going to do better in the general election.
2+2 doesn't not = 5.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)No, they actually aren't. They are part of a process by which each major political party in the US choose the person they want to field as a presidential candidate in the Nov. elections".
In other words they are goal oriented to serve the needs of the party. (I'll not follow your lead here with rude rejoinders like "Duh!"
You also wrote that "Kacish has gotten the fewest it doesn't follow that all of a sudden he's going to do better in the general election."
1) You are correct in a narrow sense, just getting the fewest votes isn't an indicator of strength in the GE. But that isn't what the claim of GE strength is based on. So your statement, while internally valid, does not address the evidence before us so it lacks external validity.
2) The lack of external validity can be understood by noting that the people who participate in each party's primary process are not a representative sample* of the people who participate in the general election.
3) Polling designed around representative samples of the GE population consistently show that Kasich is a far, far stronger candidate than any of the other candidates in the R primary field.
I hope that helps.
I personally don't like the presidential system, I prefer a parliamentary system. However we have what we have and it isn't going to change anytime soon. That said, I also despise the two party system which is, by deliberate design, established to thwart and pervert real democratic choice in order to preserve in place a small, powerful elite.
A representative sample is a subset of a statistical population that accurately reflects the members of the entire population. A representative sample should be an unbiased indication of what the population is like. In a classroom of 30 students in which half the students are male and half are female, a representative sample might include six students: three males and three females.
BREAKING DOWN 'Representative Sample'
When a sample is not representative, the result is known as a sampling error. Using the classroom example again, a sample that included six students, all of whom were male, would not be a representative sample. Whatever conclusions were drawn from studying the six male students would not be likely to translate to the entire group since no female students were studied.
See also:
SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLE
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/representative-sample.asp
brush
(53,801 posts)Politicalboi
(15,189 posts)That's why we need Bernie.
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)than he beat Trump. Clinton loses to both, worse to Kasich (10+ points).
What some of these glib numbers freaks don't realize is, that Kasich could in fact end up being the nominee. It isn't only possible, I think it's likely.
Folks around here are figuratively doing this...
Cleita
(75,480 posts)You are right Hillary can't beat him. I don't think she can beat Trump either.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)It's impossible for him to get the delegates needed for the nomination.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)If he doesn't win on the first ballot, then all bets are off and the party can reset the rules to do whatever they want. They seem intent on ensuring he is not the nominee.'
Find tonight's Chris Hayes and Lawrence O'Donnell shows and listen to the discussions.
brush
(53,801 posts)Trump has already threaten violence from his supporters if that happens.
Anybody who things a split, weakened party is going to beat Clinton, or maybe Sanders is not thinking clearly.
Cleita
(75,480 posts)But they will do it. The signs are out there. The insider Repubs don't like Trump and they will figure out a way to dump him. Of course that probably won't stop Trump. He'll probably try to run third party. A friend of mine has a theory that they will string him along past the time he can register as a third party, then dump him. However my spidey sense tells me, as egotistical as he is, he still senses a knife in the back and will move before then.
Oh, about the delegate thing. That leads to a brokered convention.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)But he could win the GE? Thats ridiculous.
Cleita
(75,480 posts)Or do you have some trickery from camp Hillary to report?
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Great strategy Tad. This will be Tads fifth losing campaign
Cleita
(75,480 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Persondem
(1,936 posts)dchill
(38,511 posts)doc03
(35,358 posts)think they will lump Bernie, Putin and Castro together. Give me a break.
21st Century Poet
(254 posts)Something extraordinary would have to happen at the convention for him to be the nominee.
The national polls I have seen up to now, although I'm not sure whether they included Kasich, all say that all Republican nominees except Trump would win against Clinton.
Meanwhile, all Republican nominees would lose against Sanders.
Make of that data what you will.
onenote
(42,724 posts)Cruz will be the second strongest candidate after Trump. He's picked up the endorsement of Nikki Haley. If neither he nor Trump gets the nod after coming in first and second, the GOP will implode.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)... trouble to upend the party just to end up with another outsider. They want Kasich, his numbers against the Dems have consistently been the best and his appeal is extremely broad by GE standards.
onenote
(42,724 posts)Cruz has the endorsements of two pretty significant Repub governors: Abbott and Haley (he also has the governor of Mississippi's endorsement). Kasich has the endorsement of the governors of Alabama and Idaho, who most people couldn't name without checking a reference book.
Cruz also has the endorsement of Senators Lindsey Graham and Mike Lee, which covers a lot of territory as well as around 30 current repub House members.
Kasich has endorsements from a lot of Ohio officials and a lot of former members of the House. His other endorsements include Boehner, who isn't exactly the most popular guy in repub circles -- if he was the PTB he'd still be speaker.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)Fellow named Haugland was on Chris Hayes tonight. I'm sure it's up at the MSNBC site or it will probably run again in a n hour or two, so you could record it.
onenote
(42,724 posts)He's considered something of a kook within repub circles and no one outside those circles has ever heard of him.
I wouldn't put too much stock in his theory that the primary elections and the voters wishes as reflected in those primary elections are meaningless wastes of time.
bottomofthehill
(8,336 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)bottomofthehill
(8,336 posts)its an opinion question, make up an answer. and to answer your question, i hope more than 50, see not so hard
Recursion
(56,582 posts)That guy is my election nightmare fuel
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)which one we run. Personally, I like Bernie's chances better against him but, shit .... squeaker !!
XRubicon
(2,212 posts)JI7
(89,259 posts)Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)elleng
(131,023 posts)She is disliked, and hated by many, and those who find trump 'unacceptable' would likely find kasich ok (because he sounds 'sane.')
Bernie would likely defeat any repug. (and 'quasi-repug.')
Zira
(1,054 posts)what.
The Republicans will unify and vote for Kasich to stop Hillary.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)If he takes it from Trump at the convention there will be hell.
Zira
(1,054 posts)30% of Republicans say they won't vote for him no matter what.
That means all the delegates in the world won't help him win the GE. They understand that and are talking about doing a contested election because of it. He failed to unite his party. He isn't viable.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Also, I heard Kasich's victory speech on March 15 and he's not the sharpest tool in the shed.
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)Hillary is right. She doesn't have the gene for easy listening. I think centrist dems would vote for Kasich. Not me. I'm way too progressive. But if Bernie doesn't break through and I doubt he will, Kasich has always been my fear. I hope he does not get the nomination. His affability and strong showing in Ohio would probably turn the tide. He would be our next President.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Is if the koch bros and other steal it from Trump in the smoke filled back rooms of the thug convention and give it to him.
That will be the start of an all out republican party civil war and an absolute cakewalk into the White House for Hillary!
I am hoping and praying that your scenario becomes reality!
Response to kristopher (Original post)
Zira This message was self-deleted by its author.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)EndElectoral
(4,213 posts)which is a critical swing state.
tokenlib
(4,186 posts)He has the appearance of a personable moderate who will allow the GOP crazies to lay waste to the landscape and cut your throat. They both get votes from people who should know better. Kasich should not be discounted.
Philly-Union-Man
(79 posts)And that is death for us. The good thing is, he won't get the nomination.
rbrnmw
(7,160 posts)closed all PP's in the state. Fracking is everywhere in Ohio. Balanced Ohio budget by kicking it down to the local level, therefore poorer communities don't have ways to pay Fire, Police, and EMT's, streets don't get repaired, Ohio is a mess.