42.5%.

[Chichiri]

That is the percentage of remaining pledged delegates that Hillary needs to win.

I have a post in the Hillary group detailing how the percentage math works. It's pretty outdated, since it didn't account for Hillary winning quite so many delegates this last Tuesday, and I also know that many of you Bernie supporters can't stomach going into the Hillary group, so I'll redo it here. Watch the two numbers in bold.

At present, Hillary has 1,139 pledged delegates, and Bernie has 825. Hillary's lead is 314 delegates. 2,087 pledged delegates remain to be allocated, and Hillary needs 887 of them. 887 into 2,027 is 42.5% of remaining delegates. (I'll just say delegates instead of pledged delegates from now on.)

Suppose both Hillary and Bernie hit their demographic targets next Tuesday, which means Bernie gets more than Hillary from those three states. Hillary will have 1,196 delegates, and Bernie will have 899. Hillary's lead is 297 delegates. 1,956 pledged delegates will remain, and Hillary needs 830 of them, or 42.3% of remaining delegates.

Ditto the March 26 elections. Hillary will have 1,257 delegates, and Bernie will have 980. Hillary's lead will be 277 delegates. 1,814 delegates will remain, and Hillary needs 769 of them, or 42.3% of remaining delegates.

Ditto Wisconsin and Wyoming. Hillary will have 1,300 delegates, and Bernie will have 1,037. Hillary's lead will be 263 delegates. 1,714 delegates will remain, and Hillary needs 726 of them, or 42.4% of remaining delegates.

Ditto New York on April 19, which demographically favors Bernie. He will have 1,162 delegates, and Hillary 1,422. Hillary's lead will be 260 delegates. 1,467 delegates will remain, of which Hillary needs 604, or 41.2% of remaining delegates.

Do you see the pattern?

Hillary does not win a single day between now and New York, but the percentage of remaining delegates she needs either holds steady or decreases. Of course it's possible that Bernie will exceed demographic expectations in a given state, but if you look at the history, you'll see that it's more likely that Hillary will beat the target in a given state. In other words, the actual numbers for her will likely be better than I'm projecting here.

[LexVegas]

1. His chances are rapidly approaching zero. And he knows it. nt

[SusanCalvin]

2. OK. I will wait for the remaining primaries to actually happen. nt

[NurseJackie]

3. Basically ...

[NWCorona]

8. It's not over till the fat guy sings

[Chichiri]

12. Here you are then.

[Nonhlanhla]

16. Ha! We posted at the same time!

[NWCorona]

26. Why did you have to go and do that!

[Nonhlanhla]

15. Please don't make Chris Christie sing.

[NWCorona]

28. Yeah my ears wouldn't be able to take it!

[livetohike]

4. K&R

[Koinos]

5. Jeff Weaver and Tad Devine understand the math.

That's why they are allegedly inquiring how to flip already pledged delegates and superdelegates.

Of course, something unexpected might happen to cause a veritable tsunami of big wins and delegates for Sanders.

And the Sanders campaign still has plenty of cash for ads and GOTV efforts.

[tritsofme]

7. Flipping pledged delegates is not a plan, it is a desperate fever dream.

[Koinos]

10. I think Jeff and Tad aren't worth their salaries.

Their "leaked" strategies have embarrassed Sanders more than once.

He should have hired a better team.

[Chichiri]

13. That's pretty much what they have left. nt

[Bleacher Creature]

6. K&R

[bobbobbins01]

9. So if it were halftime at a football game and a team was up 21-9...

They should probably not bother with the second half. Why waste any more of the fans time? They only paid good money for the tickets and refreshments. Fuck em.

[reformist2]

11. Exactly. Hillary supporters are actually revealing their nervousness.

If they were truly confident, they would have no problem with Old Uncle Bernie staying in the race until the convention.

[Chichiri]

14. Imagine that for every touchdown, you got 4 points and the other guy got 3.

Then what would you think?

[Codeine]

19. And that's the kicker, kids.

He can win every race from here on out and will still almost certainly be unable to cover the delegate deficit he's incurred.

[bobbobbins01]

21. What if the fans could change which team they supported...

And many fans still weren't sure which team they wanted to win, and many fans were still making their way to their seats.

And that your ratio of 4-3 was entirely dependent on those fans...Seems like a whole lot of factors that could influence the game. And influence it enough to let it play out until the end.

[vintx]

23. You're wasting your time.

Some people here are deeply invested in avoiding cognitive dissonance.

[bobbobbins01]

25. Yeah I know...I need to stop letting myself get drawn into this nonsense.

From now on every time I see a post that pisses me off from a Clinton supporter, rather than waste time responding, I'm going to spend an additional 10 minutes phone banking. I have a feeling I'm going to stay pretty busy.

[Chichiri]

27. LOL -- talk about stretching an analogy to breaking point.

It's over. Okay? It's just plain over.

[bobbobbins01]

29. Phonebanking time.

Please proceed.

[Chichiri]

32. Sounds good.

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/grassroots/make-calls/

[brooklynite]

17. You've never been to a game when the lead was so large, people left early.?

[bobbobbins01]

24. So you admit, you're just trying to suppress voters?

Seems like that's what you're saying...keep their morale low so they'll back down...nice.

[Chichiri]

30. Vote all you want, but otherwise spread your time more constructively.

That seems reasonable to ask.

[bobbobbins01]

33. I do, my free time is spent phonebanking for Bernie.

But thanks for the advice.

[Koinos]

20. I suppose one can always hope for a fumble or two or three.

But voters change their minds more slowly than a team moves on the field.

[bobbobbins01]

22. Not true, Bernies numbers have almost always jumped right before a primary.

I don't have the exact number, but he tends to gain around 10 points in that final week alone.

[Koinos]

36. The numbers will have to jump a lot faster than they have in the past.

The Sanders GOTV is still coming up short (spring break or whatever).

This is like a football team that almost wins every game. Eventually, they run out of games in the regular season.

And, apart from Vermont (definitely) and maybe New Hampshire (to some extent), we haven't seen a blowout win.

Maybe that will all change, if Weaver and Devine stop doing counter-productive things. I wish Sanders had picked a better pair of coaches.

The Ides of March were a fizzle for the Sanders team. They spent lots of money and came up short.

I am not rooting for either team (for different reasons); but I will vote my self-interest and support whichever becomes the nominee.

[brooklynite]

18. I t also doesn't help that Clinton is leading in Arizona...

[MineralMan]

35. She's leading in Utah, too.

She'll win other large states as well. Next Tuesday, she'll likely increase her delegate lead. AZ has many more delegates grandmother of the other two states. People who think she will lose PA, NY and NJ, for example are fooling themselves.

There's a lot of wishful thinking going around.

[Blue_In_AK]

31. You're on a roll today

and not convincing a single Sanders supporter to give up.

[Art_from_Ark]

34. He has, however, convinced me

to finally put him on Ignore.

[Chichiri]

39. Actually, I convinced one person.

Maybe more, but I only know about the one. They contacted me privately. FWIW.

[surrealAmerican]

37. So why not just wait then?

She could still focus her energies on the Republicans, knowing her lead is safe. She might even get a bit of extra exposure if she wants to do another debate or town hall with Sanders.

The longer we can keep the Republicans focused on one-another, the better. They are tearing themselves to shreds - let them. Don't try to focus them more on Hillary instead. That will only make them stronger and give them some sense of unity.

Even if I weren't a Sanders supporter, I would not think declaring a primary victory now would be a good idea.

[Chichiri]

38. She probably knows that declaring victory without a mathematical lock or a concession...

...would lead to an incredible PR shitstorm.

[surrealAmerican]

40. She doesn't have to declare victory.

That would be a big mistake. All she would have to do is wait.