My rough-cut predictions for the rest of the primary season.
I'll do this with rough percentages. Basic gist of it is that there will be a strong Bernie run through the 9th of April, but I'm not sure it ultimately matters. They're mostly small western caucus states that cause a shrug from most people. He'll net decent numbers of delegates out of the Washington Caucuses, but once we get to mid-April things get tough for him.
March 22nd:
ID Caucus - Bernie 60%/Hillary 40%
UT Caucus - Bernie 60%/Hillary 40%
AZ Primary (Closed Primary) - Hillary 58%/Bernie 42%
March 26th (Bernie's single strongest night):
AK Caucus - Bernie 70%/Hillary 30%
HI Caucus - Bernie 55%/Hillary 45%
WA Caucus - Bernie 59%/Hillary 41%
April 5th
WI Primary - Bernie 53%/Hillary 47%
April 9th
WY Caucus - Bernie 58%/Hillary 42%
April 19th
NY Primary (Closed Primary) - Hillary 60%/Bernie 40%
April 26th
CT Primary (Closed Primary) - Hillary 55%/Bernie 45%
DE Primary (Closed Primary) - Hillary 60%/Bernie 40%
MD Primary (Closed Primary) - Hillary 60%/Bernie 40%
PA Primary (Closed Primary) - Hillary 55%/Bernie 45%
RI Primary (Semi-Open Primary) - Hillary 51%/Bernie 49%
May 3rd
IN Primary - Hillary 52%/Bernie 48%
May 10th
WV Primary (Semi-Open Primary) - Hillary 53%/Bernie 47%
May 17th
KY Primary (Closed Primary) - Hillary 51%/Bernie 49%
OR Primary (Closed Primary) - Bernie 56%/Hillary 44%
June 5th
Puerto Rico Primary - Hillary 65%/Bernie 35%
June 7th
CA Primary (Semi-Open Primary) - Hillary 54%/Bernie 46%
MT Primary - Bernie 53%/Hillary 47%
NJ Primary (Semi-Open Primary) - Hillary 56%/Bernie 44%
NM Primary (Closed Primary) - Hillary 58%/Bernie 42%
SD Primary (Semi-Open Primary) - Bernie 55%/Hillary 45%
June 14th
DC Primary (Closed Primary) - Hillary 70%/Bernie 30%
The race will effectively be over after April 26th. We're going to have these streaky performances where Bernie comes back for the next few weeks after a rough last few weeks, but then he gets a bad run of it in mid-April.
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