Sanders on Maddow's show last night said he could win NY; new poll has him trailing by 48pt

[bigtree]

Eric Boehlert ‏@EricBoehlert 2h2 hours ago
Sanders went on Maddow's show last night and said he could win NY; new poll has him trailing by 48 pts there; http://www.theecps.com/

In the Democratic primary, Clinton is ahead of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders by 48 points, taking 71% of the vote to Sanders’s 23%. The former Secretary of State holds a massive advantage in key demographic groups, including men (66% to 29%), women (73% to 20%), African Americans (72% to 22%) and Hispanics (85% to 8%). Younger voters, ages 18-34, favor Sanders, but by a slimmer margin (53% to 40%) than in many primary states. Among all other age groups, Clinton dominates, leading by 45 points (ages 35-54), 50 points (ages 55-74), and 67 points (ages 75+).

Clinton and Sanders have similar favorability numbers with likely Democratic primary voters. Her favorable/unfavorable ratio is 82%/15% (+67); his is 63%/26% (+37). However Clinton garners far more loyalty: 85% of those who view her favorably plan to vote for her in the primary, while only 31% who have a favorable view of Sanders intend to vote for him.

ECPS @EmersonPolling
#NewYork poll: Clinton leads Sanders w/ both African American (72% to 22%) and Hispanic voters (85% to 8%).

[virtualobserver]

1. a month is a long, long time

[bigtree]

4. what I think we'll see in the coming weeks

...is more realization of escalating uphill climb for Sanders; no only in the states which are battlegrounds for his campaign which Clinton is still actively competing in for more delegates, but also in the increasing margins he'll need in later contests due to big Hillary margins in states like NY, NJ...

[Trust Buster]

2. But Sanders' message has been a by and large an anti-New York message.

Hillary was a Senator there. She voted for the Iraq resolution in the wake of 9-11. Ted Cruz has a chance to win New York if Bernie does.

[morningfog]

3. What does Her Iraq War vote have to do with 9/11?

[Trust Buster]

5. To the people of New York that absorbed the largest terrorist attack in U.S, history ? Plenty

As Senator, Hillary not only voted for the resolution but also went to the White House to secure 9-11 disaster relief funding. Some posters on this forum tried to frame that as a buying her vote which I think was very unfair. Either way, the people of New York has a visceral attachment to Hillary that I don't believe Sanders can overcome.

[morningfog]

7. What did the Iraq War vote have to do with 9/11?

You say plenty. What?

[Trust Buster]

8. The people of New York were understandably frightened.

Bush, Cheney and Rice were going around the country in the months following 9-11 talking of Iraq in terms of "mushroom clouds". Hillary voted on that resolution the way New Yorkers wanted her to vote. She also secured disaster relief funding.

Therefore, for the people of New York, her vote had everything to do with 9-11 in a visceral sense. To your point, yes, Bush lied about his intention to leverage the a use of force to get Saddam to accept full U.N. inspections. We now know the Bush Administration had already made their final decision. And, yes, they distorted the intelligence as justification. But, VISCERALLY, Hillary voted as the her constituents wanted her to vote.

[morningfog]

10. Sweet revisionist! THe Iraq War vote had jack shit to do with 9/11, and she did not vote the way

New Yorkers wanted her to.

[calguy]

9. I don't blame Bernie for predicting a win in NY

After all, he's a politician and he HAS to portray an upbeat view of his future prospects. But he's also a very smart man and he knows he has very little chance to overtake HRC at this point.

He owes it to his supporters to fight on to the convention and he won't disappoint.

In the end he will support HRC and become a very valuable asset to the cause.

He's run one hell of a campaign and deserves much credit for his efforts.

[GreatGazoo]

11. we have seen the numbers move quickly in other states once the ads start

The quick intense bursts of highly effective ads and the transition from name-ID (which favors the Clintons) to the get-serious period won Michigan and nearly won MA.

Clinton is underwater in NY

Clinton's net favorability (those who view her favorably minus those who don't) in New York state was plus-20. In the new poll, it's negative-five.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/21/hillary-clinton-is-now-viewed-unfavorably-in-new-york/

[bigtree]

13. that's from September of last year

...she's come a long way.

[GreatGazoo]

15. Her numbers aren't moving up so (?)

[bigtree]

19. In New York, Hillary's fave to neg rating is 67-30

AlGiordano ‏@AlGiordano 14h14 hours ago
In New York, Sanders' is 54-35. Trump's 56-38. Clinton's is 67-30, in new Emerson Poll.

[Beacool]

21. Please......

He's not going to win NY. Neither is he going to win NJ and PA. I live by Manhattan on the Jersey side of the Hudson river. This is my campaign area, I know the three states well. Hillary will win the three of them. I think that she'll probably win MD too.

[hrmjustin]

12. We are a closed primary and Hillary will in the city and suburbs by such a margin that

he can not make it up.

[CorkySt.Clair]

14. Wait till they get to know Bernie

[Tarc]

16. Maybe he could sing

[MaggieD]

17. He really is delusional IMO

I think he really believes the things he says. Which tells me he has a problem with reality.

[uponit7771]

18. Is anyone else seeing a pattern?! First congress doesn't matter and millions of people will sway the

.. before that Obama left behind his movement even though there were numerous communications from OFA, Cornell West somehow isn't a blatant insult to Obama and now this?!

Like reality isn't ... reality?!

am I close?

[Beacool]

20. Of course he's not going to win NY.

The Clintons have lived in the state since they left the WH. Hillary was their senator for 8 years. I don't think that she'll win by the margin on this poll, but she'll win handily.

[LexVegas]

22. Tad is telling him that. Tad has to get paid. nt